The UK recently announced the abolition of nuclear weapons restrictions, ending decades of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the Western camp. In response to growing global security threats, the UK will increase its nuclear warhead stockpile by more than 40 percent, while British Prime Minister Johnson and called for China to be involved in efforts to reduce the global nuclear weapons stockpile. Does this mean the start of a new global arms race? Nicolas Barotte, a journalist for Le Figaro, explains in an article published on April 11.
Britain raises nuclear stockpile ceiling
The expansion of Britain’s nuclear arsenal in the report of the Comprehensive Assessment of Security, Defense, Development and Foreign Policy, released on March 16, came as a surprise to the outside world and raised the concerns of nuclear-weapon states including France, the United States, Russia and China. The security and defense assessment said the U.K. faces risks from nuclear states, emerging nuclear powers and state-sponsored nuclear terrorism and needs its nuclear deterrent to keep it and its allies safe.
“A number of states are now significantly increasing and diversifying their nuclear arsenals,” the British government said in the assessment, adding that increased global competition, challenges to the international order and the proliferation of potentially destructive technologies all pose threats to strategic stability.
Prime Minister Johnson also announced in mid-March that Britain would increase its stockpile of nuclear warheads by more than 40 percent to ensure security in a riskier global environment as the U.K. ended nuclear weapons restrictions in the face of new technological threats.
Does the British decision, which shows an end to decades of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the Western camp, signal a shift to a new arms race?
Does quantity act as a deterrent?
Le Figaro correspondent Barot points out that what is interesting about the British move is that the Johnson administration, without changing its nuclear deterrence doctrine, has decided to raise the ceiling on the number of nuclear warheads held by the United Kingdom, one of nine countries that have acquired atomic weapons.
The analysis points out that the role of the nuclear stockpile is to act as a deterrent, so what is the minimum number of warheads that need to be held to maintain a deterrent capability? Undoubtedly, it depends on one’s adversary and a country’s ability to respond, and each country has the option of its own ceiling.
France’s stockpile of “less than 300 nuclear weapons” is roughly the same as that of the United Kingdom, but much lower than that of the United States and Russia. According to a careful analysis of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the United States has 3,800 nuclear warheads, of which 1,750 are deployed. Russia has a total of 4,310 nuclear warheads, of which 1,572 are deployed. 320 nuclear warheads are held by China. Israel, Pakistan, India, and North Korea have relatively few compared to the nuclear powers. Although the number of warheads is huge, it is far below the peak of the Cold War.
The UK has previously been reducing its nuclear weapons stockpile. In 2010, the British government set a ceiling of no more than 180 nuclear warheads by mid-2020. Prime Minister Johnson has now chosen to abandon the previous limit and has announced an increase in the stockpile ceiling to 260 warheads.
This is mainly due to the current international tensions and the unpredictable world situation.
The nuclear arms race is a legacy of the Cold War, and the high number of U.S. nuclear weapons is mainly to enable a simultaneous response in different theaters. Russia maintains a numerical balance with the U.S. Having a defense system against U.S. missiles means that nuclear weapons must be able to hit their targets; quantity is a guarantee, but it is not the only criterion.
How to strengthen deterrence?
In this regard the analysis of the journalist Nicolas Barrot of the newspaper Le Figaro points out that it depends first of all on the technical and scientific basis, by the ability to stockpile weapons, but also by the ability to innovate by technological progress is also crucial. To be precise, hypervelocity will be one of the main areas of conventional and strategic warfare in the future. The United States, Russia and China are all working on the development of related technologies. The future ASN4G airborne nuclear missile, which France plans to use in the 2030s, must also have hypersonic characteristics.
The second pillar of being able to have deterrence is the military, that is, the personnel who need to be capable and also test their equipment by conducting regular major exercises where the military can demonstrate the effectiveness of its potential deterrence. Twenty years ago, Britain abandoned its air deterrent and retained only its submarines. France still has strategic air power and has major flexibility. Meanwhile Paris and London have partially abandoned their ground deterrent, largely to fulfill commitments to reduce their arsenal stockpiles.
The final factor, and arguably the most critical one, in securing the nuclear deterrent is that it has to do with politics. The British government states that we will no longer provide data on our stockpile and the number of warheads deployed or missiles deployed. This is the democratic state’s response to its rival’s strategy of opacity.
This is because neither the Chinese Communist Party nor Russia publish specific figures on their nuclear weapons. The Trump administration has considered giving the United States low-powered nuclear weapons.
Is the arms race back on?
According to Corentin Brustlein, an expert at the French Institute of International Relations, “When the UK decided to reduce the number of warheads to 180, the world was in a different situation than it is today, before Russia invaded Crimea and before the Chinese Communist Party made its ambitions known. Since then, there has been growing competition between world and regional powers, and the risk of conflict, including among nuclear-armed states, has re-emerged.
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