In an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” program, Secretary of State John Blinken mentioned that the U.S. is concerned about Beijing’s aggressive actions against Taiwan. He also warned that “anyone trying to change the status quo by force would be a grave mistake.” Taiwan scholars interpreted Blinken as “openly suggesting” that China intends to launch a military attack on Taiwan, not just the perception of some public opinion that China’s aggression is more of a threat than a substantive threat.
In an exclusive interview, Secretary of State Blinken was asked, “Are we prepared to defend Taiwan militarily?” Blinken responded, “What we’ve seen and what we’re really concerned about is that the Beijing government is increasingly taking aggressive actions against Taiwan and increasing tensions in the Taiwan Strait.” Blinken said, “Under the Taiwan Relations Act, we have a serious commitment to Taiwan being able to defend itself, and we have a serious commitment to the peaceful security of the Western Pacific. We stand behind those commitments. All I can tell you is that anyone who tries to change the status quo by force would be seriously mistaken.”
The moderator followed up with, “As you said we have commitments, if China does commit force against Taiwan, will the United States respond with a military response?” Blinken said, “I don’t answer hypothetical questions.” But he reiterated the U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s defense and to peace and security in the Western Pacific. Blinken noted that “in this context, it would be a grave mistake for anyone to attempt to change the status quo by force.”
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry thanks Blinken for his commitment to peace in the Taiwan Strait
Taiwan Foreign Ministry spokesman Ou Jiang’an responded on 12 December that the Biden administration has repeatedly emphasized its “rock-solid” support for Taiwan since taking office, and has also expressed its high regard for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, including President Biden’s call with Chinese President Xi Jinping in February and Secretary of State Blinken’s meeting with China in Alaska. In February, President Biden spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Secretary of State Blinken met with the Chinese side in Alaska, both of which expressed great concern about the situation in the Taiwan Strait and China’s provocative actions against Taiwan.
Ou Jiang’an: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs would like to thank Secretary Blinken for once again publicly expressing the importance he attaches to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and demonstrating his consistent and firm support for our country. Our government will continue to work closely with the United States on the established good foundation and work together to maintain regional peace, stability and prosperity.”
Lai Yizhong: Blinken publicly warned China “now” not to try to change the status quo by force
“He specifically refers to China’s intention to change the status quo by force, in other words this is a very public hint from Blinken that China intends to launch a military attack on Taiwan. Openly warning China against changing the status quo by force against Taiwan.” Taiwan think tank executive member Lai Yi-chung interpreted Blinken’s talk above.
Lai said there is a lot of discussion about whether China will launch an attack on Taiwan, whether it will happen in a few years, and so on. But Blinken’s warning is “‘now’ don’t try to change the status quo by force.” According to Lai Yizhong, this message is very important, including the U.S. interpretation, and his accusation of China’s intentions, there is this topic of China using force to change the status quo, he openly speaks out in this interview.
Lai Yizhong: “The outside world has about every time China’s military intrusion on Taiwan and so on, treating it as just releasing political signals, carrying out political combat intimidation more than substantive threats. The United States is aware of these things.”
Cheng Jianren: U.S. Moves Closer to Red Line as China Threat Intensifies
Taiwan’s former Foreign Minister Cheng Jianren pointed out in an interview with this station that former U.S. President George W. Bush Jr. “If China attacks Taiwan by force, we will use all of our power to help Taiwan defend itself.” (The United States would do “whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself” in the event of attack by China.) Later President George W. Bush Jr. found that the speech had gone over the head a little bit to fix it. Cheng Jianren believes that the objective environment was different from now, and the rise of China was not yet so obvious. Now the United States internal view of China is also different, Blinken speak such words is not at all unexpected.
Cheng Jianren: “You see they are also very cautious, just like relaxing restrictions on interaction with Taiwan. I often talk about two red lines, one red line is the ‘three communiqués’, the ‘one China’ policy, and not supporting ‘Taiwan independence’; the other red line is the Taiwan Relations Act and the ‘Six Assurances’. U.S. policy has been oscillating between these two red lines, and he moved closer to the red line when the Chinese Communist Party became a more serious challenge and threat to the United States.”
Cheng Jianren emphasized that Blinken did not mention “I want to use the military” in the interview, and he did not answer hypothetical questions. This means that Blinken is quite clear-headed and knows that there are issues that cannot be rushed over the top. Cheng Jianren pointed out that the Biden administration is now also affected by the four years of Trump, as well as the objective environment, the current views of the American people, both parties, Congress and public opinion.
Lai Yizhong: U.S. commitment to Taiwan is clear and unmistakable how to help defend Taiwan vague to the
The United States has a very different meaning from the past when the U.S. official said “U.S. commitment to Taiwan” in the abstract. In the past, he said “the U.S. commitment to Taiwan is very clear and China should not doubt it. “The difference is very, very big. He’s referring to China’s current actions, not ‘China’s unwillingness to use abandoned force to resolve the Taiwan issue. He’s not referring to ‘hypothetical’ but to China’s ‘now’ actions.”
As to whether the U.S. policy toward Taiwan should abandon “strategic ambiguity” and take the “strategic clarity” route, Lai Yizhong analyzed that, at present, it seems that the U.S. wants China to understand very clearly that “the U.S. commitment to Taiwan “This part is very clear and unmistakable.
Lai Yizhong: “As for what the United States will do, what they will take as, this part he is left in the middle not to send, he just does not speak, you can also say that this part is ambiguous. You can also say that this part is vague. The specific approach he took vague to the, he will not comment. He was very, very clear in the part where he warned not to doubt the U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s security.”
The U.S. announced new guidelines for engagement with Taiwan, and representatives from both sides can visit each other’s official offices
The U.S. State Department also announced new guidelines for engagement with Taiwan on the 9th. The new version of the guidelines will allow U.S. officials to receive Taiwanese officials at federal agencies on a regular basis, as well as to meet with Taiwanese officials at representative offices in the U.S. U.S. officials will also be able to attend events held at Twin Oaks, although important Taiwanese festivities, including the Double Ten National Day, will not be allowed to participate.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that the revised guidelines of the U.S. Department of State significantly enhance the relationship and interaction with Taiwan and open a new page for Taiwan-U.S. relations on the 42nd anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act legislation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will continue to be pragmatic and uphold the principles of mutual trust, reciprocity and mutual benefit to further enhance the Taiwan-U.S. partnership based on the deep foundation established by Taiwan and the United States.
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