Three prominent U.S. China experts have recently written that Beijing’s primary goal is not to unify Taiwan by force, but to deter Taiwan independence and weaken the Taiwanese will to resist by long-term psychological warfare. The U.S. should not only focus on military threats, but also strengthen its economic ties with Taiwan.
China’s Liaoning fleet has been conducting drills near Taiwan recently, and communist aircraft have been disturbing Taiwan for nine days since April 3, raising the situation in the Taiwan Strait. In the face of China’s military threat, Foreign Minister Wu Chiu-sup pointed out during a recent tea with foreign media that if China attacks, Taiwan will fight to the end.
Richard Bush and Ryan Hass, senior fellows at the Brookings Institution and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank, said that Taiwan would be in the final stages of an attack by China. “(CSIS) China Power Project Director Bonnie Glaser wrote a letter to NPR on August 8, calling on the outside world not to speculate on the risk of war in the Taiwan Strait, which would only help China.
The letter points out that more and more U.S. officials and experts are warning that China may launch an attack on Taiwan, and Philip Davidson, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, recently predicted that the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could happen in the next 10 years, or even six years. They believe that China is preparing for an invasion and unification of Taiwan and will act once it has the required capabilities, but similar “doomsday predictions” should be properly examined.
Beijing has been losing its patience in recent years and has become increasingly aggressive in its actions to achieve its ambitions, the submission said. In addition to investing heavily in enhancing its military capabilities, it is also using its full range of capabilities to increase pressure on Taiwan without triggering conflict. While the direction of China’s behavior is troubling, it would be a mistake to extrapolate it as a prelude to catastrophe.
China’s priority now and for the foreseeable future is to deter Taiwan independence, not to force reunification. While Beijing is preparing for the long-term goal of reunification, it is also confident that it can achieve the short-term goal of deterring Taiwan independence.
The submission mentions that the outside world has overplayed a statement by CCP President Xi Jinping that “the issue of cross-strait political differences cannot be passed down from one generation to the next. It is unlikely that Xi, who is now 67 years old, will see for himself whether Taiwan will be reunified by the mainland by the presumed 2049 deadline, as every Chinese leader since Mao Zedong has demonstrated his determination to reunify.
In addition, the submission notes that while some Chinese advocate that time is running out and that Beijing should unify Taiwan by force, Xi has resisted such pressure. In its latest “5-year plan,” Beijing reiterated its policy of promoting “peaceful development of cross-strait relations,” continuing the Hu Jintao-era narrative.
Beijing has incentives to avoid war, the main one being that attempts to unify Taiwan with the United States are likely to ignite a conflict with the United States, and it would be difficult for such a conflict not to expand beyond the Taiwan Strait, the submission said. In addition, using force against Taiwan would damage China’s regional and international image, alert its neighbors to the threat China poses to regional stability, and divert Xi’s resources and attention from dealing with pressing domestic issues.
For these reasons, China has chosen a different path. According to the submission, Beijing has used a range of tools in recent years aimed at deterring Taiwan independence and gradually weakening the will power of the Taiwanese people to resist reunification. This includes attracting Taiwan’s top engineers to leave the country, isolating Taiwan internationally, provoking social confrontation in Taiwan, launching cyber attacks, and demonstrating military power.
This approach is guided by the idiom “when the melon is ripe, it falls”, which is more time-consuming than war, but less risky and costly for Beijing.
However, China does pose a dynamic threat to Taiwan, and the U.S. and Taiwan must strengthen their ability to deter war, but the immediate threat is not only military, but also psychological. Speculation about China’s threat to Taiwan is only doing Beijing a favor. What the Taiwanese need is a reason to have confidence in the future, not to be reminded of their weaknesses.
The pitch calls for U.S. policymakers who want to help Taiwan to not just focus on the military threat, but need to modernize the U.S.-Taiwan economic relationship. In addition to assisting Taiwan in diversifying its trade relations, it should also provide a platform that allows Taiwan to gain dignity and respect in the international arena.
The submission also points out that part of the U.S.-Taiwan work potential must focus on security, but this is the starting point, not the end point, of what needs to be accomplished. Beijing will certainly object, but the U.S. focus on economic and diplomatic initiatives is within the scope of the “one-China policy,” as defined by successive administrations.
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