Xinjiang cotton is a black swan event, however, even without this black swan, speculation on shoes is also a very risky class of gambling behavior, the myth of getting rich and losing the bottom of the tragedy is staged every day.
The original is the tide shoes circle ugly duckling domestic sneakers, due to the Xinjiang cotton incident, the price rose sharply overnight, became a widely sought-after white swan. A pair of reference price of 1499 yuan Li Ning brand old sneakers “Li Ning Wade way 4 all-star silver and white models”, in a shopping platform was marked 48889 yuan, the price rose 31 times.
Some shoe dealers took the opportunity to make a fortune, however, some people are happy and some people are worried – looking at the 120,000 pairs of Nike shoes placed in two large warehouses in Shanghai, with a total value of more than 130 million, Xiao Kang, a 95-year-old shoe dealer, was dumbfounded.
Xiao Kang has been frying shoes for 6 years, and last year transformed to do B-end seller services – as a transit point for Nike’s sales chain, Xiao Kang’s warehouses store shoes that shoe dealers across the country are ready to sell. For every pair of shoes sold, regardless of price, he can extract 20 yuan service fee from it, “much safer than C-end shoe speculation to make money by luck.”
Before Xiao Kang’s warehouse daily inbound and outbound sneakers more than 6,000 pairs, monthly service fee revenue of millions, “to break even”, but with Nike was consumer boycott, warehouse revenue plummeted 40%. Xiao Kang every morning when you raise your eyes, you can see 7200 yuan warehouse costs burning in front of your eyes, a month of warehouse costs alone will have to burn 210,000, other expenses he did not dare to count.
Nike official hurry to apologize – this is now Xiao Kang’s biggest wish, according to his understanding, the domestic around the Nike industry chain of agents, distributors, suppliers, large and small involving hundreds of thousands of people, Nike a day without an apology, hundreds of thousands of people have to suffer.
As one of the hundreds of thousands of people who suffered, the same shoe dealer Li Dong calculated an account: “My home warehouse hoarded thousands of pairs of shoes, inventory basically depreciated 30%, according to the customer price 2K calculation, the loss of more than millions.”
Xinjiang cotton is a black swan event, however, even without this black swan, speculation on shoes is also a very risky class of gambling behavior, the myth of getting rich and losing the bottom of the tragedy is staged every day.
The shoe speculator Lao Chen told the alphabetical list (ID: wujicaijing) that he and several partners put together 10 million to sweep the goods, “I did not expect the forecast error, the shoes did not rise but fall. No matter how we sweep, the price of the ball did not go up, but all the way down. Finally had to be forced to inventory pressure, in the average price of 2600 yuan, all at a loss to dispose of, several million hit the water.”
Old Chen is not dead, last year and a fight, buy Nike Obsidian COURT BOROUGHLOW, a small profit after greed, did not sell in time, the results of the price plummeted, and lost more than 1 million.
Just started to speculate in shoes to taste the sweetness, so put more and more money, but good luck gradually departed, lost more and more, but at this time has been unable to extricate themselves – this is almost the common fate of speculators. “The commonality of every shoe dealer’s circle of friends is that they can often see their peers rolling in money and running away.” Xiao Kang told Alphabet List.
Despite earning millions of dollars by speculating on shoes, Wang Ru, 95, is glad he pulled his feet out of this strange circle. He loves collecting sneakers and originally loathed shoe speculators, but in order to make money, he turned out to be the person he hated the most. “The environment of this circle is so bad that the brand needs the shoe speculator to help him do hunger marketing to raise the price, and there is only a secondary market for things that are worth a lot of money.” Wang Ru finally could not stand it and left the shoe circle, he told the alphabet list that in fact everyone knows the truth, “The key is that the brand side never loses, the ones who are cut leeks are always shoe dealers and buyers.”
Liu Mian, born in ’98, made half a million dollars from shoe speculation last year, and although he knows the circle can’t take root, it’s obviously a tough decision when to call it quits.
The following is a transcript of the oral testimonies of five shoe speculators.
A
Xiao Kang: Post-95, a sneaker entrepreneur
“Shoe speculation depends on luck, today you make 2 million, tomorrow you may lose 1.5 million”
I started my career in my sophomore year of college, and for the previous six years, I opened a sneaker store on Taobao and did wholesale sneakers, and I did all the business around basketball once. At that time, with the general trend, I also fired shoes. Although I made money, but the psychological bottom has not been. This circle is chaotic, and the risk of speculating on shoes is particularly high.
Especially in 2019, the domestic sneaker market entered the blowout period, retail investors, white people, speculators, investment institutions are coming, all the shoes in short supply, the price skyrocketed in a short period of time.
At that time, I was doing wholesale sneakers, and it was easy to earn a million a month. I hoarded a Jordan shoe, limited to 8888 pairs worldwide, only available in Jordan stores. Plus the official did not do publicity, in the country no one asked for, I would get it at that time, or rely on the information advantage, we have a good relationship with the store, understand that it is a limited edition, think that can add value. But the heart does not dare to play guarantee, did not dare to buy more, and set down 200 pairs, each pair of 6000 yuan.
By the time it was officially released in October, the price of the shoe skyrocketed to 20,000 overnight, and 100 pairs were sold on the spot, netting a profit of 1.4 million at once.
I did not dare to sell more at that time, my heart was weak, I thought the price was inflated, the return rate would be high, and only half of them were sold. Later, the price was really adjusted all the way back and stopped at about 12,000, and the remaining 100 pairs were sold one after another, making a total of about 2 million.
Speculation on shoes is the same as speculation on futures, there is an element of gambling. We order is a month or two in advance booking, simply can not guess which pair of shoes will explode, also can not guess which flow of stars will wear, belong to the blind order, big profit by luck, big loss is life.
The reason for the existence of the shoe speculation, we are all running for the benefit of the industry, no regulation, no rules to restrain, even if I have been in the circle for many years, the same will be cheated. Previously cooperated with several partners to see the price of shoes rose, according to the original price of shipping is a loss, and we said that the goods because of formalities were detained by customs, we can have no choice, the buyer paid in advance, we have to high prices from peers to transfer goods, such as losing money to earn, the most a loss of 1.5 million.
I am a sneaker lover myself, I do not agree with the speculation of shoes, but being in the industry chain, there are some things we can not control. The premium of shoes mainly relies on the brand side to guide, consumers have consumer demand, speculators in the middle is just a small firewood.
I have not guided the speculation of shoes from the beginning to the end, are following the price trend to sell shoes, the situation is often passive. If the price of a pair of shoes rose, buyers swarmed over to buy, I look for peer transfer costs are also rising, or I am making money at a loss, a loss is a small few million, ordinary people simply can not pocket. And a price increase, someone called us a stinky shoe dealer, speculation shoes. If the advance payment received in the early stage, the later can not send the goods more miserable, money can lose money okay, lose money can only be credibility bankruptcy. Each shoe dealer’s circle of friends, the commonality is to often see peers roll money to run away.
According to my observation, the speculation of shoes to the end, the basic are losing money, people who can earn money, basically not afraid to lose, the bottom thick. Speculation of shoes is very dependent on capital turnover, stockpiling a few thousand pairs, a payment is millions, once the price of shoes fell, is a big loss.
So I went around doing a circle of C-side business, earn fast money for a long time, the heart does not feel safe, to last year decided to do B-side, with the same thing, earn some platform service fees. No matter how high the price of shoes goes up and how hard it falls, I only charge 20 yuan per pair of shoes for the service, which is stable and safe.
The bad thing about the B-side is that it is very expensive to operate with heavy assets, so you have to build your own warehouse, do storage and warehousing, sell across the platform, transfer goods, repair defects, educate the market in the early stage, and accumulate resources for sellers.
By the beginning of this year, my warehouse inventory was kept at 120,000 – 140,000 in stock to break even.
I thought of achieving profitability in the first half of this year, where I thought I would encounter the Xinjiang cotton storm, the B-side is also insecure.
120,000 pairs of Nike shoes, in this boycott event collapsed, the number of sneakers sold on the Take-Apart and Nice fell, the price of shoes fell, sellers do not want to sell, buyers do not want to buy, we as the middle party, this small half of the revenue decreased by 38%.
My two warehouses, a month of inventory costs 216,000, the team has 80 employees, still have to continue to do development, technology, operations, the monthly labor costs are more than a million.
I don’t know how long I have to live with such a loss. Less than 2 months, more than half a year, at present can only burn money raw boiling. Wait until the official apology from Nike to free us.
B
Wang Ru: post-95, former sneaker Taobao store owner
“Fried shoes earned millions, but I had to escape.”
Since junior high school, I was eager to collect basketball shoes, when the domestic circle of sneaker lovers was very small, which was basically the post-80s, I was the youngest in the grade, the aesthetic of basketball was more mature, preferring the basic models, not particularly concerned about the trendy models.
I always hated shoe dealers, because of their existence, I needed to spend more money to buy a pair of shoes, and I never thought I would eventually become the person I hated, and become a shoe dealer myself.
I just want to make money. I need to collect shoes, I need to make more money. 2014, I was 18 years old, still a high school student. I saw a Nike coconut shoe online, a collaboration with Adidas, with an original price of $1,999 and a sale price of $20,000.
I didn’t give myself time to hesitate, the price of the same 5 colorways went to 5 figures, I had a feeling that the shoes would continue to rise, and I borrowed money to buy the shoes. As I expected, this pair of shoes just received, there are people seeking to buy, resold 27,000, 2 days to earn 7,000 yuan.
Having experienced the pleasure of making money so easily as a shoe dealer, who can resist this temptation?
After going to college, my classmates pulled me to open a Taobao store, we partnered to sell shoes, my aesthetic ability is good, mainly to do the work of selection, naturally on the road to speculation shoes.
In the domestic sale of shoes, the basic are making money, we find agents to take goods, internal discount prices, sold each pair of shoes can earn at least 20%, the original price of 1200 yuan, basically can be sold to 1500 yuan, in general, the monthly net profit of at least 100,000 or more.
If by chance the star wears the same model, especially Wang Yibo wears the shoes, the basic are in short supply, the price will surge a wave, single-month flow of water on the million very easily.
I study the operation of the speculative shoes on the living things. Before is to hire people to go to the store door queue, 800 to buy shoes, and then hoarded, selling price will be at least 1000 yuan, or even 1500 yuan or more.
Now the routine is to engage in monopoly, all the sizes of a shoe, on the get thing shot, 15 minutes do not pay, even if the breach of contract, but only to pay a breach of contract, but in these 15 minutes, the original price of 900 yuan shoes, 2000 yuan sold, will be grabbed, 15 minutes to earn more than 100,000, basically considered a huge profit.
The sneaker premiums on the thing have been very high, I previously sold a Jordon4, the original price of about 1,000, the transaction price on the thing is 8,000, I still feel a little loss inside the heart, if you wait, ten thousand very easy.
Once fried shoes, people will naturally have a gambling nature, becoming more and more greedy.
In the past few years, I have added many peers to my circle of friends, and I feel like the social news scene. There are peers to sneakers as futures speculation, play prepaid set, and so the buyer paid after the discovery, the price of shoes rose, before the money received to buy so much goods, the loss of money to run away.
There are some shoe dealers in the mall bought more than 100 pairs of shoes in one go, ready to stock up and sell, did not expect a few days after the price of shoes fell sharply, in order to recover some losses, shoe dealers went to the mall trouble, to return the goods, and finally to the police station inside, are not accounted for.
I am purely lucky to be in the business with the guidance of seniors, favoring the basic models, the occasional wholesale pop-up shoes, but also to analyze whether the stars have worn, as long as the stars have worn the shoes, the price will not fall. Relatively speaking, it is relatively safe.
In addition, when I was in college, the desire for money was not so strong, and most of the money earned was used to buy sneakers, saving more than 500 pairs of sneakers, and the mentality was very satisfied.
When I decided not to speculate on shoes, my heart was actually more frightened. The environment of this circle is too bad, the brand side needs the shoe speculator to help him do hunger marketing to raise the price, only things that are worth money will have a secondary market. The key is that the brand side never loses out, and the leeks are always cut by shoe dealers and buyers. The leeks can not be cut, one wave after another.
The circle inside the 80’s predecessors basically all retired, the remaining to sell shoes are after 90, 95, buy shoes are after 00, the overall trend are chasing the explosive.
The so-called brand story behind each pair of shoes, they do not care, sellers calculate how to make shoes sold more expensive, buyers feel that the more expensive shoes, naturally the best, go out to chat have some dignity.
Many of the post-00s buyers I have contacted feel that sneakers are a social tool, they want to buy the co-branded models, the hottest models of the moment, which celebrities have worn the same models, whether their classmates have the same models or not, and so on. Sneakers are basically reduced to a tool for comparison.
Since the longer I stayed in this environment, the more I hated myself, so I simply ran away.
C
Lao Chen: post-80s, entrepreneur
“Spending money to buy a lesson, 10 million speculation on shoes lost all my money”
I actually don’t know about shoes, I joined the circle because I thought I was young at heart and willing to deal with young people, and I purely felt that speculating on shoes was new.
I didn’t expect to be educated by the market hard just after I entered the industry. 2019 double 11 period, see the tide shoes profiteering, instantly washed out by profits, by chance had the opportunity to meet a shoe store owner, he said he could go through the back door, to provide me with a batch of Nike Blue Silk.
The purchase price is 4800 yuan, the brand sales director of this shoe said to me, this shoe is a limited edition, the country 1100 pairs, can give me 700 pairs, I was also secretly happy, said with partners, through the relationship to get a big project.
Supply and demand determines the price, and things are precious when they are scarce. My idea at the time was to sweep down fixed sizes in major mainstream e-commerce platforms and monopolize some of the sizes of these shoes: 36, 36.5, 37 yards, and the shoes could sit on the ground.
I contributed 3 million, several partners contributed 6 million, almost invested 10 million sweep. Confident to sweep the goods, did not expect the forecast error, the shoes do not go up but down. No matter how we sweep, the price of the ball did not rise, but all the way down.
Finally had to be forced to inventory pressure, in the average price of 2600 yuan, all at a loss to dispose of, several million hit the water.
This incident made me understand that, relying on our grassroots power alone, the shoes simply can not be speculated, and no longer dare to have the desire to speculate on shoes.
Speculation on shoes is the same as doing traditional business, see the good, don’t be insatiable. Although I have not moved to speculate on shoes, I still suffered losses because of greed.
Last year, I saw the Nike Obsidian COURT BOROUGHLOW series, bought the average price is 2300 yuan, and then rose to more than 3000, I decided that the price will rise, did not sell in time, the result of the price turned to plummet, hovering at 1000 yuan never go up, and I lost more than 1 million.
I used to stay in the guarantee company, did the luxury goods, did the contractor, has been felt to have seen the ugly side of human nature. Stepping into the tide shoes circle, I realized that this industry is by far the most chaotic industry I have ever seen, low threshold, big capital does not look up, small capital chaos, the general age of the practitioners, no basic business ethics and principles, making the whole industry a pandemonium.
I have seen a first rich after bankruptcy after 00, his initial accumulation of the first bucket of gold, is the first stage by the “mouth goods” – they do not hoard goods, in the circle of friends claim to have goods, raise prices by virtue of the information gap to earn a price difference, in the most crazy 2019 speculation shoes, he monthly income of nearly 50,000, his parents originally opposed to his fried shoes, once they saw the income by default.
He tasted the sweetness after the boldness, began to enter the second stage – put short goods – short a pair of shoes, if you think the price of this shoe in 2800 yuan, then first to 3500 yuan pre-sale, get the buyer’s money to buy shoes, earn is also the price difference.
The post-00s are young and see that they earn more money than their parents have worked hard for most of their lives, the mentality is inflated, the principal and profit to drink and pick up girls, can’t buy enough goods, to buyers shipping delay, buyers want a refund, can’t pay back the money, and then continue to “put empty goods”, tear down the east wall to fill the west wall, pull more buyers advance to fill the deficit of the last one, and finally snowballed. Finally, the snowball is rolling bigger and bigger, and now I owe 3 million, being chased by debtors every day.
Now I don’t have the courage to speculate in shoes anymore, speculation in shoes is the same as speculation in stocks, money comes fast and goes faster.
D
Li Dong: post-90s, get things sellers
“Speculation of shoes is not a loss is to earn, HM a word, I 7 years for nothing.”
Once the Xinjiang cotton incident came out, I gave myself a long vacation, Buddhist business, just want to calm mind to survive this period.
The shoes in my hands are overseas brands, recently fell very strong, the original price of 4,000 yuan shoes, now only sell 3,000 yuan, the original price of 2,000 shoes, the transaction price fell to 1,000 yuan. Thousands of pairs of shoes hoarded in my warehouse, inventory basically depreciated by 30%, according to the customer unit price 2K calculation, the loss of more than millions.
7 years in the business, in the circle is just a small minion, before the profit added up, also earned a small few million, if now the goods are all sold out at low prices, I equal to 7 years for nothing.
But I have no way back, if I want to give up the shoe speculation, at least the inventory of shoes not sold at a loss. So I can only boil time, just like people can’t sell their funds, I also want to wait until the market is red hot.
During this time, I am trying to make peace of mind, not to lose is to earn. Speculation of shoes for 7 years, if the mental capacity is not, simply can not stay.
I entered the industry relatively early, the third year of college began to speculate on shoes. At that time, because of the lack of money, can not afford to buy shoes, want to make money to buy their favorite shoes, the first month earned a few thousand, identified the sale of shoes is a good business, after graduation, full-time selling shoes.
Waiting to sell shoes full-time, only to know that speculation shoes is luck business, want to make money must occupy the advantages of timing, location and people – before the sale of a large number of stockpiles, after the sale of prices rise, the star with goods. The lack of any one factor can be a big loss. If the price rises, then stock up or find peers to transfer goods for sale, sell yourself is not enough to pay.
I tend to choose to put on sale less, or in the short term more attention to the style. These shoes represent the direction of the trend, put on the get things to sell, the shoe price increase is usually relatively large, a limited edition of shoes, the original price of 1999, can be sold to 30,000 yuan. It’s common for a pair of shoes to jump 3,000 yuan in 15 minutes, and it’s also common for them to drop 50% overnight.
Our sources are from abroad, there are not many channels, either arrange people to buy in the store, or in the website to place an order, can buy goods depending on the luck, more often buy hundreds of pairs, less often can not buy anything.
Buy goods are their own money to buy, each purchase, smashing out are hundreds of thousands of goods in hand, looking at the price trend after the official sale of shoes, if the price is sold is to earn, if the price falls, it will have to lose.
Tide shoes are easily outdated, updated very quickly, sold within a week to see sales, to see if the brand will find stars with goods, you can calculate their own is to earn or lose. Before the hand hoarded dozens of pairs of AJ1TS, it just so happened that a star wore the shoes on the variety show, that night the pair of shoes rose 4,000, a night net profit of more than 100,000.
Everyone in the circle called Wang Yibo is the “God of Wealth”, as long as the brand side to find him cooperation, he wore shoes can let us earn a wave.
In this business, it is difficult to establish a sense of security. Shoe speculation is a very unsustainable economic behavior, and nine out of ten people who speculate on shoes lose money. Those of us who exist are doing the dowry for the brand, and the only people who can make Wang Yibo wear shoes are the brand side. The only people who can tell the story of the brand and influence the price of shoes is the brand, the shoe dealer is just a middleman, helping to sell the goods.
The circle of those who get rich myths, the ultimate money-making people themselves have a thick family base, survived a few cycles and survived. The average person may lose the bottom at any time, no one dares to pack a ticket, they sell shoes for life.
These last few years, I have been controlling the risk.
The average shoe speculator is in a first-tier city, I moved my home base to my home, a third-tier city. Here the housing prices are cheap, buy a room as a shoe warehouse, shoes are stacked at home, did not spend much on storage and office expenses, most of the funds are used to buy goods.
In this crisis, I may no longer dare to invest all my money to buy goods. I am even afraid that I will not be able to survive this cycle safely.
E
Liu Mian: 98 years, Internet company operation
“Part-time shoe speculation, annual income of 500,000, six times the main business.”
I grew up as a sneaker lover, junior high school to buy Nike, the family collection of nearly 100 pairs of sneakers.
Before the sale Nike first generation Yeezy, the domestic can not buy, I flew to Spain, in front of the store in Barcelona lined up a day and night, waiting for more than twenty hours, finally to the release price to buy the shoes.
I would choose to speculate on shoes, but I also see that this line is profitable. It was 2017, my sophomore year of college, bought a pair of Yeezy350 ice cream, changed hands and earned more than 2,000, a month of living expenses to hand.
In particular, I saw that I put the second-hand shoes hanging on the idle fish to sell, people will rush to want. This line is really profitable ah, I completely into the pit of fried shoes.
The first year I entered the shoe circle, I earned 10,000. At the beginning was a small fight, three or four thousand shoes, may only earn a forty or fifty to meet. Catching up with the 2019 speculative shoe wind, feeling that everyone around me is discussing tide shoes, joining the circle of more and more people, my ambition is getting bigger and bigger, began to do wholesale, the average monthly sales of each month almost 1000 pairs.
Especially once I watched a sneaker blogger’s video, I selected Nike SB Dunk LowPro the shoe, as a result, was taken by Wang Yibo endorsement, shoe price from about 2000, all of a sudden rose to 5000, sales soared, single-month flow reached eight figures.
Last year, my net profit from selling shoes was 500,000 yuan, about six times my normal work salary, and my real job is to do operations in an Internet company.
Although the side business earn more, but I dare not give up their main business. Speculating on shoes to make money is a small probability behavior, once a year can happen is good. The circle of senior speculators in many shoes, I have self-awareness, although playing in the shoe circle for more than 3 years, but my channel resources are very weak, brand resources, a year can only get more than a hundred pairs, compared with others, no source advantage, can only be a small fight.
This Xinjiang cotton storm, the impact on my not much, I do not just sell overseas brands, I hoarded more than a dozen pairs of Li Ning shoes, recently experienced a wave of price increases in the process, the Wade series rose once to 20%, sales also rose several times. However, the growth momentum of domestic shoes is still not as good as Nike these brands, growth for a few days, it subsided.
I never thought I could stay rooted in this business. Speculation in shoes is the same as speculation in stocks, more and more people enter the market, which only shows that the risk is increasing. When everyone thinks it’s profitable, it’s often time to be harvested.
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