Analysts say Russia is increasing its arms sales to the Burmese military and is firmly behind Burmese coup leader General Min Aung Hlaing. And this alliance will further boost Russia’s foreign policy ambitions in Southeast Asia through future arms sales. Meanwhile, leaders of at least 10 ethnic Burmese rebel groups have declared their support for Burma’s anti-coup movement.
Anthony Davies, a security analyst with Jane’s Group in Bangkok, said it is “clear” that Moscow wants to strengthen its relationship with the Burmese military through arms deals, primarily to the air force and, to a lesser extent, to the army, while promoting ties with ASEAN, a regional economic organization.
Russia is building a strong foothold in ASEAN not only in Myanmar, but more broadly through Myanmar,” he said. He added that he was not surprised that Russia and China supported the proposal to hold an ASEAN summit on the Burma crisis.
He said, “ASEAN is an organization that they want to maintain good relations with and want to be able to influence in a way that is beneficial to them. But I don’t think they have any more illusions than many countries in the West about what ASEAN can achieve.”
ASEAN has long been criticized for its inability to act in crises. ASEAN leaders often invoke the organization’s principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of member states.
Analysts say the 10 ASEAN countries, mostly one-party states and military-backed governments, deserve to be ridiculed for their lack of moral courage following the coup in Myanmar.
This is a very significant test of whether ASEAN can handle a major crisis in its own backyard,” said Bradley Mogg, a senior fellow at the Institute for Cooperation and Peace in Cambodia. China in fact has reason to want some stability here.”
He added, “Russia, on the other hand, continues to be, as soon as a totalitarian regime emerges, Russia will support it.” He also said that the Russian media has trumpeted Moscow’s support for General Min Aung Hlaing as a defense of democracy in Burma.
Commenting on the bloody massacre in Burma, Mogh said, “ASEAN is basically stuck in the same state it has always been in when dealing with problems, which is that nothing can be achieved without consensus, and it won’t be achieved. I’m not very optimistic, not optimistic.”
Mogh said Russia is pushing for new arms sales, mainly reflected in Russian Deputy Defense Minister Fomin’s presence at the annual Armed Forces Day parade in Naypyitaw on March 27. In addition, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu visited Myanmar a week before the coup.
He said, “A figure of the rank of deputy defense minister certainly demonstrates Russia’s presence in Burma and shows that Russia will continue to support the Burmese military regime.”
On the very night of the review, the Burmese military regime carried out air strikes against “Kachin” rebel forces, forcing more than 12,000 civilians to flee into the jungle near the Thai border. The attack struck a nerve with the leaders of some 20 ethnic rebel groups.
Analysts say the use of Russian-made weapons against civilians has increased tensions and anti-Russian sentiment among protesters and rebel groups.
Recent Comments