The USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier (CVN 71, front left) fleet and the USS Maxine Island amphibious assault ship (LHD 8, front right) fleet rehearse in the South China Sea, April 9. (U.S. Navy)
On April 5, the Chinese Communist Party confirmed that the Liaoning aircraft carrier was training in the Taiwan Strait, and also sent 10 warplanes to harass the Taiwan Strait, another significant increase in the number of military aircraft disturbing Taiwan over the past several days. The U.S. military’s response is also a matter of concern, as the Chinese government is apparently simulating a forceful attack on Taiwan. The U.S. military has also been making moves in recent days, actually revealing its operational plans for dealing with the war in the Taiwan Strait.
U.S. aircraft carriers will not immediately intervene in Taiwan Strait operations
The Chinese Communist Party’s aircraft carriers are certainly not willing to confront the U.S. carriers. After the USS Roosevelt entered the Indian Ocean, the USS Liaoning sailed from the East China Sea. After the Roosevelt returned to the South China Sea, the USS Shandong carrier on Hainan Island did not move out, and the Liaoning did not seem to have any signs of entering the South China Sea.
The USS Roosevelt carrier did not choose to approach the Liaoning carrier, but instead rehearsed with the Malaysian Air Force in the South China Sea and again with the USS Makassar Island amphibious assault fleet. This releases a warning signal to the Chinese Communist Party and may indicate that the U.S. carriers may not be the first to rush to Taiwan in the event of war in the Taiwan Strait.
On April 7, the U.S. military announced that the destroyer USS McCain (DDG 56) was crossing the Taiwan Strait, but did not reveal whether S.S. ships were also deployed on the east side of Taiwan to monitor the Liaoning aircraft carrier. The U.S. military’s response suggests that it will be the S.S. ships that first intervene in the Taiwan Strait.
Such a deployment would be tantamount to breaking the CCP’s so-called counter-intervention warfare plan. The Chinese Communist Party’s East Wind-21 and East Wind-26, known as carrier killers, are designed to attack U.S. carriers in the Taiwan Strait. If the U.S. carriers do not immediately approach, but send the SHIELD into battle first, are the Chinese Communist Party’s missiles prepared to attack the carriers, or do they choose to attack the SHIELD again?
U.S. SHIELD ships could engage in naval warfare, using Harpoon anti-ship missiles and Standard 6 missiles to directly attack the CCP fleet, including the carriers, or they could use Tomahawk cruise missiles to attack CCP landing concentrations in Fujian. With its own complete anti-aircraft, anti-submarine and missile interception systems, the SHIELD is undoubtedly the first choice for the first wave of intervention in the Taiwan Strait.
U.S. Aircraft Carrier Opens Second Battlefield in South China Sea
The U.S. SHIELD ships can immediately implement tactical counterattacks in the Taiwan Strait, while at the same time, U.S. aircraft carriers will likely open a second battlefield in the South China Sea to implement strategic-level counterattacks. This should be a key step in the U.S. military’s involvement in the Taiwan Strait, which is now almost confirmed.
The U.S. aircraft carrier’s stay in the South China Sea indicates that the U.S. Army is releasing a clear signal to the Chinese Communist Party that the U.S. Marines will quickly seize the Communist Party’s islands in the South China Sea if the Chinese Communist Party dares to move in the Taiwan Strait with the USS Maxine Island amphibious assault fleet in the South China Sea exercises.
On April 7, the U.S. military also announced the USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier and the Malaysian Air Force exercises, the U.S. carrier’s F/A-18E/F Hornet fighter aircraft, and Malaysia’s Su-30 fighter aircraft together exercises, no doubt quite practical value.
In August 2020, Su-30s of the Chinese Communist Air Force flew a rare training exercise in the South China Sea, taking off from Nanning and returning all the way to Zhubi Reef in the Spratly Islands, for a total of 10 hours, with at least one aerial refueling in between, supposedly flying in a slow, fuel-efficient mode, and arriving at the Spratly Islands when they were basically at the limit of their range.
If the U.S. military attacks the islands in the South China Sea, the Chinese navy will be too late to mobilize, and the Chinese air force will naturally need to be the first to come to their aid, with the Su-30 being almost the only option. The U.S. naval aircraft rehearsed confrontation with the Su-30, naturally to deal with the Chinese Communist Party’s Su-30 fighters from afar. Regardless of whether the Chinese Communist Air Force will actually be deployed, or whether the Su-30 will be able to fight over long distances, the U.S. military has already made advance preparations for actual combat.
The Chinese Communist Party can certainly also use East Wind missiles to attack U.S. aircraft carriers in the South China Sea, and that would no longer be a counter-intervention operation in the Taiwan Strait, but a rescue operation in the South China Sea. The South China Sea is densely populated, and the top brass has to think hard about whether a missile launched by the Chinese Communist Party that is off target will accidentally hit other countries, or even hit the islands and reefs it occupies. Even if the CCP’s missile saturation attack really breaks through the SHIELD’s defense and hits the U.S. aircraft carrier, it will not be able to stop the U.S. Marines from capturing the islands and reefs in the South China Sea.
The USS Maxine Island amphibious assault fleet, which just rehearsed with the USS Roosevelt carrier, includes the amphibious assault ship USS Maxine Island (LHD 8) carrying at least six F-35B stealth fighters, as well as the amphibious dock landing ships USS Somerset (LPD 25), USS San Diego (LPD 22), a fleet carrying multiple combat helicopter squadrons, as well as amphibious landing combat vehicles, hovercraft, and Marine Expeditionary Unit 15. Such a fleet, combined with an aircraft carrier fleet or bomber, should be able to capture the islands in the South China Sea as if it were in the bag.
The Chinese Communist Party would be forced to distract itself from the second battlefield, making it difficult to win in the Taiwan Strait and impossible to rescue them in the South China Sea, and possibly losing on both fronts. This is precisely the strategic intent of the U.S. military, which was clearly demonstrated to the CCP’s top brass in this response to the Liaoning aircraft carrier. The Chinese Communist Party is likely to have difficulty coping with a two-front war, and its overall plan is completely disrupted.
How the U.S. Military Operates in the Taiwan Strait
The U.S. military is simultaneously opening the first battlefield in the South China Sea, not abandoning the battlefield in the Taiwan Strait.
On April 7, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command released images of the Virginia-class attack submarine USS Illinois (SSN 786) sailing out of Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The U.S. military has traditionally kept details of submarine deployments secret, and this image was actually taken on March 30. The submarine would have arrived in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait by now, and may be watching underwater near the Liaoning, which the Chinese Communist Party’s limited anti-submarine capabilities may have difficulty detecting. The U.S. submarine could have sunk a large Chinese warship by firing a Mark 48 heavy torpedo, which is much more powerful than an anti-ship missile and could be considered the nemesis of the Chinese fleet.
On the contrary, with the U.S. anti-submarine capability, it would not be difficult to track the noisy CCP submarines, and U.S. anti-submarine and reconnaissance aircraft should have been conducting similar reconnaissance activities for many days. U.S. submarines are also capable of launching Tomahawk cruise missiles against the ground, especially the four modified Ohio-class missile attack submarines, each of which can carry 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles and are ready to launch attacks.
The U.S. military does not actually need an aircraft carrier to ride to Taiwan, as the F-35s, F-15s and F-16s based in Japan can carry out strike missions against the Chinese Communist fleet and landing forces, and are easier to operate than carrier-based aircraft. on April 8, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command also announced the deployment of F-22 stealth fighters to Japan. Whether air, sea or ground strikes, U.S. bases in Japan can send a large number of warplanes to assist the Taiwan Strait, the number will far exceed the number of carrier-borne aircraft carried by one to two aircraft carriers, air refueling aircraft will also be on standby in the air, U.S. warplanes can take turns to strike.
U.S. B-1 and B-52 bombers can be stationed in Guam at any time, and F-35 fighters from Alaska can be forward deployed to Japan at any time. The F-35 and F-22 stealth fighters will also be able to use AIM-120 air-to-air missiles from beyond visual range to shoot down unsuspecting Chinese fighters waiting for a close-range fight.
On April 9, the U.S. Air Force released images of four F-22 stealth fighters training near Mount Fuji, Japan. (U.S. Air Force)
Possible Third Battlefield
The U.S. military can also open a third battlefield in the East China Sea at any time. If the U.S. military finds that the Chinese Communist fleet is ready to move out, warplanes based in Japan can always attack the Chinese Communist Northern Theater fleet bases and air bases.
If the war expands, U.S. warplanes may also attack Beijing, and B-2 bombers may also be deployed to destroy the CCP’s ballistic missile bases, paralyze the CCP’s nuclear weapons facilities, anti-satellite facilities and medium-range missile bases, and deprive the CCP of its primary attack capability.
It is at this point that the U.S. aircraft carrier fleet may come on board. The USS Reagan in Japan could be deployed soon, and two more carriers are on standby off the U.S. West Coast, the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) and the USS Lincoln (CVN 72), could also come in to support.
The U.S. carrier fleet may launch deep attacks in the South China Sea, and may even use the captured islands in the South China Sea as small air bases for continuous air attacks on the fleet bases and air bases in the southern war zone of the Communist Party of China; it may also conduct continuous deep attacks from the East China Sea and the Taiwan Sea. In the event of a major war, U.S. aircraft should also establish air bases in Taiwan.
The U.S. military is fully capable of operating in all three theaters simultaneously, paralyzing at least the naval and air attack capabilities of the CCP’s southern, eastern, and northern theaters, and the CCP regime would have a hard time existing.
The sailing of the Liaoning aircraft carrier has aroused concern from all walks of life. While the U.S. carrier is not approaching for the time being, the U.S. military is stepping up island seizure drills in the South China Sea, and the U.S. military has announced the deployment of its SHIELD ships, submarines and warplanes, all of which unmistakably convey a clear battle plan to the Chinese Communist Party.
In the face of increasing provocations from the Chinese Communist Party, the U.S. military has no more strategic ambiguity, and now it is up to the White House to decide whether it wants more strategic ambiguity.
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