Recently, Western countries and the Chinese Communist Party have each deployed carrier battle groups in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait, and many commentators believe that the situation in the Taiwan Strait may be imminent, and the situation is as critical as Europe before a major war.
Will the Chinese Communist Party unify Taiwan by force? After the bankruptcy of “one country, two systems”, this question is increasingly on the agenda of political leaders. In terms of military power on both sides of the strait, the Chinese Communist Party can cross the sea at any time, but the reason why it has remained a verbal threat for many years and has never swung its troops across the sea is that it hopes to implement “one country, two systems” and unify Taiwan with the lowest cost.
Because of an anti-China campaign in Hong Kong, the Communist Party’s police brutality, the National Security Law, and the “perfection” of Hong Kong’s electoral system, the lie of “one country, two systems” has been completely demolished. In other words, no one in the world believes in the possibility of peaceful unification of Taiwan.
The only way to completely solve the problem is to occupy the island of Taiwan, but only the outer islands of Kinmen and Penghu, which is not very meaningful strategically, but to provoke the hostility of the world, which is not worth the loss. A series of not to fight, to fight to take Taiwan directly, the rice cooked to maturity, over the years the Chinese Communist Party is playing this calculation, but unfortunately to the peaceful reunification of expectations delayed. Nine-two Consensus from the KMT to the DPP, the more it becomes unclimatic, until today, the water falls spring also, the road to peaceful unification is no longer feasible.
And unification desperate, only armed unification way, that is, when to fight and how to fight the problem. The problem is that the Chinese Communist Party is not only facing Taiwan’s 20 million soldiers and civilians, but also the United States and other Western countries. The U.S. has been vague for many years, always avoiding the important issues when it comes to Taiwan’s security, making a high profile, the Taiwanese can not feel the bottom, the Chinese Communist Party can not feel the bottom, the more vague the U.S., the more likely the Chinese Communist Party may misjudge.
The Americans are now refined, and their attitude is becoming clearer and clearer. The Five Eyes Alliance and the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue” have essentially brought Taiwan’s security into the scope of protection, and the recent official talks between the U.S. and Japan have made it clear that they will not sit idly by while Taiwan is occupied by the Chinese Communist Party. In this way, an armed attack by the Chinese Communist Party on Taiwan would almost certainly bring the U.S., Japan and other Western countries into the fray.
The war is not a trivial act, but a mobilization of forces along the coast of Fujian, and the mobilization of a large number of air and sea forces, which cannot be done in secret under today’s satellite surveillance, so it is not possible to attack Taiwan by surprise, but only when fully prepared. Once the U.S., Japan and other Western countries detect the Chinese Communist Party’s war attempts, there will be enough time to deploy troops and condemn the two sides to face each other in the Taiwan Strait in a deadly battle, which would be on the scale of World War III.
Is it possible for the Chinese Communist Party to throw in the towel? A big war, than the strength of the army, but also the country’s economic strength, China is called the second largest economy, but the foundation is weak, to support 1.4 billion people, a large number of materials rely on imports, once the war broke out, can hold up for a while, can not hold up for a long time. On the contrary, the Western countries, the combination of amazing strength, war, the hinterland is vast enough to support the long-term expenditure, the two comparisons, the Chinese Communist Party is not an opponent.
What is worse, the economic strength of the Chinese Communist Party, after a full-scale war with the West, facing a rapid decline in the doom. Foreign trade is down, the economy is under siege, high technology is a dead end, financial mines are everywhere, and with internal and external problems, the country’s power will be seriously weakened, and this trend is irreversible. Therefore, the longer we delay, the worse the conditions for the CCP to fight across the sea, the more disparate the strength of the two sides, the more unstable the internal instability before contact, and the military is already in turmoil.
In other words, the CCP could not afford to wait, the more it wanted to fight, the more it had to fight early, but the more it wanted to fight early, the more difficult it was to make up its mind. The Chinese Communist Party, from Mao Zedong to Lin Biao, always thought of war as “not to fight unsure battles” and advocated that a war should be at least 70% sure to be won. The Chinese Communist Party’s armed attack on Taiwan, under the premise that the U.S. and Japan are likely to participate in the war, would not have a 70% certainty of victory, not even a 50% certainty. If you can barely start a war, and you can’t sustain it until the end, then not only will you lose the war, but the survival of your regime will be in question.
Although Xi Jinping is crazy, but compared to the old Mao’s crazy, only a small witch. In the face of worldwide siege, internal troubles are piling up, the possibility of a small-scale gunfight in the Taiwan Strait cannot be ruled out, as for the chances of an all-out war, how do you see it? The armed reunification of Taiwan is always just a bluff of the Chinese Communist Party, and there is nothing to fear if you know it through.
Recent Comments