Kissinger, former U.S. Secretary of State and “old friend” of the Chinese Communist Party, warned that the U.S. and China must reach an understanding or our world will “face the dangers of the pre-World War I era. It should be said that this is a painstaking warning from Dr. Kissinger, who is very well-intentioned and does his best to worry about the Chinese Communist Party; however, his proposed solution and advice to the U.S. government is absurd and dangerous.
Former Secretary of State Kissinger, now 97, said months ago that the United States and its Western allies need to “reach an understanding” with China on a new global order or face “a dangerous situation before World War I,” according to AFP. The Reuters report said Kissinger made the statement during a video conference at Chatham House in London.
Chatham House, or the Royal Institute of International Affairs, is an independent policy research institute in London that provides authoritative commentary on international affairs and global challenges. Chatham House is also known for its creation of the so-called Chatham House Rule. “The Chatham House Rule means that when attending a meeting under this rule, anyone is free to quote, use, and speak freely from the discussions at the meeting; however, no one may disclose the personal identity or affiliation of the speaker or any other participant. This is the “Chatham House Rule” and is intended to encourage open discussion.
Kissinger stressed that it is much more dangerous now than in the past, and that high-tech weapons on both sides could lead to “violent conflict. “There are constant conflicts on both sides, and while many of them can be resolved, there will always be times when they get out of hand.” Kissinger added that “China is becoming more and more powerful, and its ability to organize itself to achieve technological progress under state control is admirable.” He added at the same time, “But that does not necessarily mean that China will lead in all technologies in this century.”
Kissinger cautioned, “The United States has a tough time negotiating with a competitor like China, and the other question is whether China will accept the new order.” Kissinger also stressed the need for the West to believe in itself. Kissinger’s successor half a century later, Biden’s Secretary of State Blinken, said that many aspects of the U.S.-China relationship “are becoming increasingly hostile, although there is still room for cooperation between the two countries.”
What is intriguing is why Kissinger referred to World War I rather than the more familiar World War II.
World War I (World War I) lasted for more than four years, from July 1914 to November 1918. The war was fought from Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, to the Pacific Islands, Shandong in China, and the coasts of North and South America. The outcome of World War I was the victory of the Allies and the collapse of the German, Russian, Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian Empires.
World War I was fought primarily in Europe, but the war eventually spread across the globe, with most countries involved. The Allies who won included France, the British Empire, Russia, the Kingdom of Serbia, the Kingdom of Montenegro, Belgium, the Empire of Japan, Italy, Portugal, Romania, the United States, Greece, the Republic of China, and Thailand. The defeated Allies included the German Empire, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria. 65 million people fought in the war, which ended with about 20 million wounded and over 16 million dead.
Although the trigger for World War I was the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, Crown Prince of Austria-Hungary, and his wife Sofia in Serbia, the real reasons for the war, according to historians, were extreme nationalism, French vengeance after the Franco-Prussian War, tensions in the Balkans, competition for colonies, and the arms race between nations.
World War I was preceded by two crises in Morocco, the Bosnian crisis, two wars in the Balkans, and up to the assassination in Sarajevo, which finally led to the outbreak of war. On the Western front, there was the German offensive and the entry of the United States into the war; on the Eastern front, there was the German-Russian engagement and the Russian counterattack; on the Southern front, there was the Balkan battlefield, the Ottoman-Turkish battlefield, the conversion of Italy to the Allies, and the entry of Romania into the war. After it became a world war, Japan sent troops, Latin American countries participated in the war, and the Republic of China also participated in the war. In addition to the war on land, there was also the war at sea.
America’s entry into the war began with the German submarine attack on a British liner, a large portion of the passengers on the liner were Americans. Because of the continued, unrestricted German submarine attacks, several American ships were sunk and the United States subsequently broke off diplomatic relations with Germany. The Germans, hoping for a fire in the U.S. backyard, told Mexico that if Mexico declared war on the U.S., Germany would assist Mexico in getting back the lost territory ceded to the U.S. after the Mexican-American War! This gave the United States the basis to enter the war and subsequently declare war on Germany.
Japan defeated the Qing Empire and the Russian Empire after the Sino-Japanese Naval War and the Russo-Japanese War; because of the alliance of Britain and Japan, it joined the Allies in World War I and declared war on the Allies. Japan entered the war and launched the Battle of Tsingtao, attacking and occupying the largest German military port in Asia, Tsingtao, China.
The Beiyang Duan Qirui government of the Republic of China, in the interest of defecting to the Allies, broke off diplomatic relations with Germany and declared war on Germany and Austria, taking back the German Concession of Tianjin, the Austrian Concession and the German Concession of Hankow. The Republic of China did not send troops to the war, but only organized hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers to Europe through official and unofficial channels, and formed regular Chinese labor brigades to carry out logistics for the Allies. It is worth mentioning that the Beiyang government also took the opportunity to occupy Outer Mongolia in World War I!
After the Great War, the peace treaty was signed at the Paris Peace Conference. But since then, the world has undergone a real transformation. The hegemony of the British pound was weakened by the dollar, Europe was in decline, the United States and Japan were on the rise, and communism took advantage of the opportunity to rebel. In China, through the May Fourth Movement, the evil ideology of communism entered the country.
In retrospect, Europe had a strong ultra-nationalism; Britain had a monopoly on the raw material market; the trading system of the British Empire colonies covered 1/4 of the world’s population, such as India and Australia; the United States had a huge domestic market, but trade protection; Germany and Japan had a small market and limited development, and eventually chose to expand. Free trade theorists argue that if markets had been open and free to trade before World War I and tariffs had been eliminated, there might not have been a World War I. Those who study finance, on the other hand, note how the classical gold standard before World War I ended: Britain suffered a run on the pound due to huge war expenses and gold outflow, and finally watched as the dollar took over and became the new hegemonic currency.
Obviously, the cycle of history is similar, but not exactly the same. But looking at the history of the First World War, exploring the roots behind it, examining the extreme nationalism in the Balkans, French vengeance after the Franco-Prussian War, the competition for international markets, and the arms race between countries, looking back at the world today, there are indeed many shadows of a century ago. Economists and historians argue that with open markets, free trade, and tariff exemptions, humanity might have avoided World War I. How similar are the extreme nationalism, vindictiveness against the West, plundering of international markets, and militaristic arms race fomented by the Chinese Communist Party today to those of those days? The Chinese Communist Party is also laying the seeds of a massive war. Kissinger’s choice of World War I as a reference is indeed a unique observation and profound insight.
However, although Kissinger’s warning is insightful and even painstaking, his advice is absurd and misleading, and smacks of worrying for the CCP and helping it to unwind. How could he possibly suggest that “the United States and its Western allies need to ‘reach an understanding’ with China on a new global order,” given his knowledge of the CCP? The CCP is not like the German Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, or the Ottoman Empire, but a communist regime that transcends all evil empires. The Chinese Communist Party thumbs its nose at the global order, much less the possibility of reaching an understanding with the West! The educated people of the United States have realized that if the CCP is not destroyed, the CCP will destroy the entire Western world and enslave humanity!
Indeed, the international community is much more dangerous today than it was 100 years ago, and high-tech weapons can lead to “violent conflicts”. The key to avoiding conflict is to prohibit the CCP from having access to the most sophisticated high-tech weapons, which is the right national policy that the Trump Doctrine has implemented. Seeking an “understanding” with the Chinese Communist Party will only accelerate the pace of its acquisition of sophisticated weapons. How can a regime armed with artificial intelligence and genetic weapons, knowing that it will eventually be abandoned by history and spurned by the Chinese people, sit down to negotiate and seek peaceful coexistence with the United States?
Kissinger’s proposal is extremely absurd and hopefully will not cause Blinken to lose his way. But if Biden’s team continues to be obsessed with the idea that “there is still room for cooperation” between the U.S. and China, there is a real possibility that the shooting in Sarajevo will be repeated!
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