Numerous Chinese ships are anchored near the disputed Bull Yoke Reef in the South China Sea. (March 7, 2021)
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The dispute between China and the Philippines over Bull Yoke Reef in the Spratly Islands, which China calls the Spratlys, has recently made waves again. The Philippines accuses China’s deployment in the South China Sea of violating Philippine sovereignty. China, on the other hand, insists that Niuyu Reef is part of China’s Spratly Islands. Chinese fishing boats are operating in the reef and its nearby waters to avoid the wind, which is reasonable and legal. Some commentators believe that China’s high profile in the disputed waters is a test of U.S. resolve to counter China.
Chinese ships gather on Bull Yoke Reef
At its peak, there were more than 200 Chinese fishing boats assembled in the waters around Bull Yoke Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands, and dozens of boats are still docked there.
In addition to the Chinese boats found on Bull Yoke Reef. The Philippine military has also spotted Chinese vessels on several disputed islands and reefs, including Ximen Reef, Zhongye Island, Meji Reef, Yongshu Reef, and Zhubi Reef.
Philippine authorities believe that the Chinese fishing boats that entered the waters of NiuYue Reef were piloted by Chinese maritime militia. Macau military commentator Huang Dong told Voice of America that all indications are that the Philippine conclusion is well-founded.
Huang Dong said, “You can see from the satellite that it’s very organized and regular, basically the same type of fishing boats are moored together, and it’s not a smear to say they are maritime militia. Their stay at sea makes the outside world think it is a norm. You could also say they’re mean. They will say that they don’t have a navy out there, not even a marine police boat. Piles and piles of so-called fishing boats can stay in the same place for a long time without fishing. Then what does it eat? So it can only be backed by the state’s money behind it. No other country can afford to support such a large-scale, long-term non-fishing operation.”
The Philippines has again asked Chinese vessels to leave, and China has countered that no one can “arbitrarily criticize” the activities of Chinese fishing vessels in the South China Sea.
Huang Dong said: “(If it is) a few dozen fishing boats that can still deal with it, but you see they are a bunch of fishing boats together, you want to drive can not drive. These large ocean-going fishing boats are bigger than many patrol boats in the Philippines. So what do you do? Unless you actually use the navy and shoot the guns.”
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New Times: Beijing Tightens Control of South China Sea with Large Number of Boats
Philippine Defense Secretary Lorenzana earlier issued a strong statement accusing the gathering of Chinese boats on Bull Yoke Reef as an attempt to occupy more space in the South China Sea. China, for its part, has repeatedly reiterated that Chinese fishing boats are sheltering in the area, stressing that there are no so-called maritime militia boats.
Maritime militia boats are the same old trick
Taiwan’s National Policy Research Foundation military expert Li Zhengxiu was interviewed by the Voice of America. He believes that the Chinese side’s use of “sheltering” as a justification for the gathering of a large number of ships is not convincing.
Li Zhengxiu: “I should say that there are militiamen and fishermen inside. They are all fishermen who have been mobilized by the Chinese Communist Party. Fishermen must rely on fishing for their livelihood, so how could more than 200 fishing boats gather there for no reason, and claim to be sheltering from a storm that never comes, which is a conscious act of mainland China?”
In Li Zhengxiu’s eyes, Beijing is just playing the same old game.
Li said, “In the past, in the Communist wars, and even in the Korean War and the Vietnam War, there was a massive mobilization of people to assist in such military operations. Because they knew that if international law is truly observed, military personnel cannot shoot at unarmed civilians.”
The international arbitration court ruled in 2016 that China’s claim to 90 percent sovereignty over islands and reefs in the South China Sea was invalid, and at the time China made it clear it did not accept or recognize the ruling. China’s response to the latest controversy in the Philippines also emphasized that Niuyu Reef is part of China’s Spratly Islands.
Beijing intends to militarize Niuyu Reef
According to military commentator Huang Dong, Beijing’s deployment has become very clear.
Niuyu Reef is the one China feels is the most important right now,” Huang Dong said. It is close to the Philippines and (is) located within the nine-dash line, which basically encompasses the entire South China Sea. It is the most important thing for China to do. In the short term, Filipino fishermen will not be able to enter and fish, and will be forced to leave, and the next step may be for construction teams to go in and turn it into a large-scale fortress. (Presumably) China will do what it did with the other islands and will use the excuse of civilian use, again saying that ships from other countries can take refuge there in the event of a disaster. But when it’s built, if you get a little closer, it will drive you away and sink you in the event of a conflict.”
In addition to seeing China as an important economic and trade partner, the Philippines is also extremely dependent on China in the fight against the disease, having just received the first batch of a new coronavirus vaccine donated by China last week. Some analysts believe that President Rodrigo Duterte, who is seen as pro-Beijing, has been keeping a low profile in the face of the storm, possibly to ensure the supply of vaccines in the country.
Huang Dong said, “Now we can appreciate the power of China’s economic diplomacy and vaccine diplomacy. If you let China pinch your throat and don’t compromise, it’s very simple: I don’t supply vaccines or I reduce the supply, or I withdraw the capital. Now it’s all about bullying people while they are in a passive situation. This is not how a responsible power should behave. If one knows the customs of international law and diplomatic law, you would think this is not responsible behavior.”
As an ally of the Philippines, and seeing China as a competitor, there is a lot of interest in how the Biden administration will respond to this crisis.
“An analysis by Bloomberg described the actions of Chinese fishing boats in NiuYuYu Reef as a “gray area” strategy, and if the U.S. sends ships to counter it, it may be seen as an overreaction, rather like an aggressive party.
According to military commentator Huang Dong, this incident is very difficult for Washington.
The Philippine fishing boats and fishermen simply can’t pool their strength to play with it, and if you use military and police power, you become a big bully and lose the moral high ground,” Huang said. I believe that the big foreign propaganda machine (of China) has already prepared a propaganda strategy to test what the US will do. The Philippines colluded with the U.S. to bully my fishing boats and fishermen, and I used my military power to protect them as a normal act of defending my rights. This strategy is very successful from China’s point of view.”
Foreigners worry that Beijing is eating the marrow
Taiwan military expert Li Zhengxiu does not rule out the possibility that Beijing will be more “blatant” in the future.
If the Chinese Communist Party brings the Philippines to its knees in this way today, it is likely to use similar methods in the South China Sea to maintain military and political oppression,” Li said. If the Philippines is allowed to give in because of this, mainland China will surely eat its words and continue to create such strife in more places.”
Philippine politicians are generally pessimistic about a diplomatic solution to the Ngurah Rai dispute. Some members of Congress even believe that ASEAN should step in to force China to reach a consensus on a code of conduct for the South China Sea, but Li Zhengxiu believes that it is difficult for ASEAN members to reach a consensus on the South China Sea issue based on interest factors.
The problem is that China is basically not very willing to discuss with ASEAN,” Li said. China wants to use bilateral agreements to break ASEAN’s unity. China often uses economic inducements to force many countries to negotiate with China privately, which causes many ASEAN (countries) to be really reluctant to tear up with China at ASEAN meetings.”
Associate Professor Chong Kah Ying, Department of Political Science, National University of Singapore (NUS website photo)
Chuang Chia-Ying, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the National University of Singapore, told the Voice of America that the military coup in Myanmar has deepened the divisions among ASEAN member states and there is no longer room to resolve the Ox Yoke Reef dispute.
Thailand does not want to offend Beijing,” Chong said. Laos and Cambodia are pro-Beijing. Malaysia also does not want to offend Beijing. The Philippines has no way to coordinate internally. Vietnam is more insistent on challenging Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over the South China Sea. Singapore will try to fight for the space where it can operate autonomously.”
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