Chinese Communist Party military aircraft have recently continued to harass Taiwan, and the Liaoning aircraft carrier formation has stepped up drills in the Taiwan Strait. Under the tense atmosphere in the Taiwan Strait, some U.S. experts have warned that the current harassing invasion by the Chinese Communist Party is a preparation for an attack on Taiwan, and that Xi Jinping needs to divert the attention from the domestic crisis in order to avoid stepping down, and that a war against Taiwan may break out in the next three years. And there have been different predictions before about whether the CCP will attack Taiwan and the timeline.
Almost every day this year, Chinese Communist Party military aircraft have invaded Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. The Taiwan Coast Guard announced on April 1 that CCP drones have been in the airspace near Taiwan’s Dongsha Island, located in the northern South China Sea, flying around the island in recent days, not ruling out that they were on a reconnaissance mission.
The Chinese Communist Party’s Liaoning aircraft carrier formation began drills in the waters around Taiwan on April 4. The Chinese military claims that such drills will become a regular occurrence.
John Mills, former director of cybersecurity policy, strategy and international affairs at the U.S. Department of Defense, said the exercises would be necessary if the Chinese military were to carry out a forcible landing on Taiwan, given the complexity of amphibious landing operations. He warned Taiwan authorities that the CCP’s amphibious assault could also involve swarms of Chinese communist militia ships.
He warned that the CCP is preparing for an invasion of Taiwan and that Beijing’s harassing invasion is only part of these drills. It is expected that these exercises by the Chinese Communist military could culminate in large-scale maneuvers within the next two years.
Mills believes that a war against Taiwan could occur within the next three years.
Mills analyzed that Xi could distract attention from internal problems such as the economic crisis by attacking Taiwan. “If they don’t do it in 10 years, I think (Communist Party leader) Xi Jinping could be removed from office. I think even six years is too long.”
Philip Davidson, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, had predicted in early March that the Communist Party of China could attack Taiwan within six years.
John Aquilino, who is replacing Davidson as the new commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, said the Communist Party could attack Taiwan within six years. At his nomination hearing in March, John Aquilino also warned that the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan “could come much sooner than most people expect.
In March, U.S. scholar Oriana Skylar Mastro quoted unnamed Chinese Communist Party generals at a U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) hearing as saying that the Chinese Communist Party could invade Taiwan within two years.
The Financial Times also quoted a senior U.S. official as saying late last month that the CCP’s attitude toward Taiwan seems to be moving from a stage where it is satisfied with maintaining the status quo to a position where it is more agitated and inclined to test Taiwan’s bottom line, and intends to make further big moves to attack Taiwan for reunification. Xi views the progress of Taiwan’s acquisition as an important indicator of his personal legitimacy and political performance, and Xi appears ready to take greater risks.
In addition, Mills, former director of cybersecurity policy, strategy and international affairs at the U.S. Department of Defense, said that Beijing’s ambitions for Taiwan stem largely from its desire to gain access to Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. Taiwan is home to the world’s largest foundry chipmaker, TSMC, which uses tiny chips in everything from cell phones to missiles.
Mills said the Biden administration should adopt an unambiguous deterrence strategy against the Chinese Communist Party. He argued that the U.S. should increase its naval and air force military presence around Taiwan and in the East and South China Seas.
On March 26, Taiwan and the U.S. signed a memorandum of cooperation on maritime patrols, in which they will cooperate to respond to possible crises in the Indo-Pacific region and work together to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense announced on April 7 that it will hold its annual “Han-Guang Exercise” in late April and mid-July to conduct a live military exercise simulating a communist attack on Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Wu Chiu-sup said at a press conference that day that if the Chinese Communist Party attacked, Taiwan would fight to the last minute. The company’s main goal is to provide a solution to the problem of the problem.
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