Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is scheduled to visit the United States on April 16 to meet with Biden. Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimichi Mogi, in a rare call with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on April 5, urged Beijing to improve the human rights situation in Xinjiang and stop the crackdown in Hong Kong. Some analysts say that Tokyo’s stronger attitude may also be related to the U.S. military brass’s assessment that Xi Jinping will attack Taiwan by force within six years. Kyodo News pointed out in an article that if mainland China attacked Taiwan by force, Japan would be in a national crisis near at hand.
Kyodo News published an article on April 5, pointed out that Japan’s strategy towards China faces a major decision: whether to confront China and the construction of the U.S. Army’s land-deployed missiles in the Japanese archipelago? Prime Minister Kan Yoshihide’s visit to the U.S. is approaching, and the idea of building a U.S. missile network in Asia has surfaced as an important issue within the Japanese government. The background reason is that senior U.S. military officials have analyzed that mainland China may attack Taiwan in the near future. The U.S. side aims to target missiles from Japan and other places to pose a threat to China, thus discouraging it from attacking Taiwan. But the risk of raising military tensions by triggering opposition from China also lingers. Japan is forced to face a major choice.
Inevitable
According to the article, Japanese government officials involved in security work believe that “it is necessary to consider the direction of accepting the deployment of land-based missiles from the viewpoint of deterring China. The opposition of Japanese domestic public opinion is estimated to be strong, but the defense of Taiwan is the most important issue directly related to the security and safety of Japan.”
Aquilino, the incoming commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, emphasized the need to construct a missile network in Asia. The outgoing commander, Davidson, pointed out that an attack on Taiwan by mainland China could happen “within six years. The sense of crisis expressed by the U.S. side is pushing the Japanese government toward new cooperation with the United States.
Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said at a press conference on April 2, regarding the military power of mainland China and Taiwan, which are facing each other, that “the balance is tilting toward China. The gap is widening year by year.” He expressed concern. When asked on Fuji TV on the 4th if he was worried about China’s movements, Kan also replied that he “feels it personally. He stressed that in dealing with China-Taiwan relations, “it is important for Japan and the United States to cooperate to create an environment for a peaceful resolution while maintaining deterrence.
Vigilance against
This article describes Japan’s acceptance of the deployment faction’s projection of its understanding of the situation: If mainland China were to attack Taiwan by force, then Japan, which is close at hand, would be in a national crisis. Because of this, it is necessary to work with the United States to improve deterrence and warn China that unification by force will lead to breakdowns.
However, there is also a cautionary tone within the Japanese government about early deployment (of missiles). Behind this is the concern that “it may lead to opposing arguments such as ‘should Japan be pushed to the front line in the event of an emergency in Taiwan'” (a source in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Since it is envisaged that the deployment site will be the target of Chinese missiles in the event of an emergency, it has been analyzed that few local governments have taken the initiative to deploy.
This Kyodo article also says that the idea that the move would have serious implications for Japan’s diplomacy with China was also mentioned. When concerns about Taiwan were included in last month’s Japan-U.S. Consultative Committee on Security (2+2) joint document, China condemned Japan for “looking up to others and acting as a strategic vassal of the United States” (in the words of Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian). It is not easy to maintain good Japan-China economic relations while putting strong pressure on China.
Reservations
The article concludes that the Japanese government has not made a clear statement on the idea of deploying (missiles) and is waiting to see what public opinion and countries will do. Foreign Minister Toshimichi Mogi told the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives on April 2 that he had “received a clarification from the U.S. side that ‘we are not in a position to deploy immediately, and we have not asked any allies about their intention to accept it,'” avoiding any in-depth discussion.
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