While international public opinion has recently focused on long-standing geopolitical dilemmas such as the Taiwan Strait issue, North Korea’s renewed missile tests, and the movement to restart negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal, the standoff between Russia and Ukraine in the eastern part of the country has become increasingly tense. Ukraine blamed a Russian mortar attack. Russia, however, denies any involvement and says the soldiers were killed by mines while inspecting a minefield. Russia also warned that provocative actions on the Ukrainian side could spark a war. There are reports that Russia is massing troops on the border between the two countries, causing great concern and response from the West. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitri Peskov told reporters on April 2 that a NATO troop deployment to Ukraine would be the beginning of a series of potentially dangerous events and that “the Russian side will take further measures to ensure [its] security. When pressed on what those measures might be, Peskov said only that Russia would take “all necessary measures. He insisted that Russia was not taking actions that threaten Ukraine.
Analysts point out that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been in power for more than 20 years now, and despite his lackluster achievements in developing the country’s economy and construction, Russia has followed a historically successful diplomatic strategy under his leadership, not hesitating to take the initiative whenever opportunities arise to secure strategic and substantial benefits for itself. Just as Russia sent troops into the Middle East in the name of helping Assad’s regime to calm the chaos and eradicate the Islamic State after the outbreak of the Arab Spring in Syria in 2011, there are voices that point to a renewed Russian-Ukrainian border situation that is not unrelated to the Kremlin’s strategic opportunism. On November 21, 2013, the Ukrainian government, led by pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, decided to suspend preparations regarding the signing of the Association State Agreement with the EU, while stating that it would strengthen economic and trade relations with other CIS countries, including Russia. The social and political crisis in Ukraine has since erupted, triggering pro-EU demonstrations in Ukraine.
Obama’s “red line” lesson is still fresh in our minds
On August 20, 2012, then-U.S. President Barack Obama, the leader of the free world, warned Syrian President Assad at a White House press conference that the use or deployment of chemical and biological weapons in the Syrian conflict would be a major cause of concern. The use or deployment of chemical and biological weapons in the Syrian conflict is an act that crosses the “red line” of the United States. Obama said, “We’re very clear to the Assad regime and other actors on the ground that our red line is that we’re starting to see a whole lot of chemical weapons being transferred or used. That would change the calculus for me.” Although Obama did not specify, there was speculation that he was referring to a possible military intervention by the U.S. On April 25, 2013 the White House said that the U.S. intelligence community believed that the Syrian government had used chemical weapons on a small scale in its civil war. This means that the Assad regime has crossed the “red line” previously set by Obama.
Nevertheless, the speculation that Obama would give the Assad regime military punishment did not appear. His repetition on this self-drawn principle also drew questions at home and abroad. Senator John McCain, a Republican who was still alive at the time, criticized Obama for drawing “‘red lines’ that were clearly written in auto-disappearing ink” because it was believed that the “red lines” had been crossed, but the Obama administration was not. had been crossed, and the Obama administration did nothing. On August 21 of the same year, another chemical and biological weapons attack occurred in Ghouta, an eastern suburb of Damascus controlled by the Free Syrian Army, an armed opposition force. Estimates of the number of victims in this incident ranged from at least 281 to 1,729. The incident coincided with the first anniversary of Obama’s “red line” condemnation of the Assad regime’s use of chemical and biological weapons. In response, Obama, who was visiting the Swedish capital of Stockholm at the time, said, “I didn’t set a red line. The world set a red line when governments, representing 98 percent of the world’s population, said the use of chemical weapons was abhorrent and adopted a treaty (Chemical Weapons Convention) that banned the use of chemical weapons even in cases where countries were engaged in war.”
Perhaps in an attempt to save face, Senate Democrats pushed through the U.S. Congress days after the incident a legislative motion authorizing the Obama administration to use military force against the Assad regime in response to its use of chemical weapons. Although the bill explicitly prohibited the use of U.S. ground troops, it never received a floor vote in either the House or Senate. Mind you, as then-French President Francois Hollande recalled afterwards, France and Britain were ready to join the U.S. in a punitive strike against the Assad regime, but the plan was later scrapped with the U.S. withdrawal and the opposition of the British Parliament. Hollande, for his part, remains convinced that it was “a missed opportunity to change the course of the (Syrian) war. Critics say that Obama’s indecisiveness was exposed to the Kremlin. In a way, this also gave Putin the confidence to later dare to send troops to annex Crimea and intervene in the situation in eastern Ukraine.
Biden’s rise to power shifts the object of U.S. attention
The war in the Donbas region of southeastern Ukraine from February 2014 to the present is being fought by pro-Russian forces in the Russian-speaking regions of eastern and southern Ukraine under Russian control against Ukrainian government forces. The pro-Russian forces in the Russian-speaking regions of eastern and southern Ukraine are demanding the integration of these regions into the Russian Federation. Among them, Crimea declared independence and subsequently joined the Russian Federation after a referendum in March 2014, while pro-Russian groups in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, among others, have also occupied government buildings and declared statehood, but have not been universally recognized by the international community. The civil war in eastern Ukraine also indirectly led to the crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. The fighting has eased since the signing of two Minsk ceasefire agreements in 2014 and 2015, but separatist forces continue to confront Ukrainian government forces along the borders of the two disputed regions, with sporadic clashes still occurring. Commentary suggests that while the real reason for Russia’s renewed troop build-up in eastern Ukraine, nearly seven years after the outbreak of the Ukrainian civil war, is not yet clear. But it may be linked to the fact that the Biden administration has made it clear since taking office that China poses the “greatest challenge” to the United States, rather than inheriting the primary focus on the Russian threat under the Obama administration.
In his first foreign policy address to the State Department on Feb. 4, President Biden made clear that “China is America’s most formidable competitor, posing a direct challenge to American prosperity, security and democratic values. We will confront China’s economic misdeeds, counter its aggressive and coercive behavior, and push back against China’s attacks on human rights, intellectual property and global governance,” he said. He said, “But we are prepared to work with Beijing when it is in America’s interest to do so.” Referring to Russia, Biden said, “At the same time, in a completely different way than my predecessors, I made clear to President Putin that the days of the United States not listening to Russia’s aggressive actions – interference in our elections, cyberattacks, poisoning of its own citizens – are over. We do not hesitate to demand that Russia pay a higher price for this and work to defend our vital interests and our people. Acting jointly and in concert with other like-minded partners, we will deal more forcefully with Russia.”
The gradual bipartisan focus of U.S. politics on the Chinese challenge in place of the Russian threat is a historic opportunity since the onset of the Cold War. If this is a macro trend, another recent micro event can be seen as a test of the Biden administration’s resolve to defend international order and democracy by authoritarians around the world. This is undoubtedly the military coup in Burma that has been underway since Feb. 1 of this year. Although the Biden administration, in the face of days of bloody repression by the Burmese military, subsequently announced an immediate halt to all trade with Burma until the democratically elected government regained power, this did not stop the military security forces from killing at least 564 civilians, including 47 children. It is worth noting that Secretary of State Blinken made clear in his foreign policy address to the State Department on March 3 that the Biden administration would use the power of example “to encourage other countries to undertake critical reforms, to eliminate bad regulations, to fight corruption and to stop unjust practices.” He said, “We will reward democratic ways of behavior.”
U.S. Has Asked Russia to Explain ‘Provocative Acts’ on Ukraine Border
Blinken said, “But we will not promote democracy through costly military interventions or attempts to overthrow authoritarian regimes by force. We have tried these approaches in the past. However well-intentioned we may have been, they have not worked. They give ‘promoting democracy’ a bad name and discredit the American people. We take a different approach.” Returning to the current growing tensions in eastern Ukraine mentioned above, there is no reason for the Ukrainian side, as the weaker party between the two sides in the conflict and the one whose territory has been massively annexed by others, to reignite the war or expand and full-fledged the conflict again after seven years. Therefore, many believe that Putin’s administration is putting the Ukrainian actor with no prior political experience, President Zelensky, and the Western camp, led by the newly installed Biden administration, to a new test. State Department spokesman Price told the media on April 5 that the U.S. side has asked Russia to explain the “provocative behavior” on the Ukrainian border.
It is understood that 20 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in sporadic exchanges of fire between the two sides since the beginning of the year. Over the past two weeks, Moscow has moved to test Washington and its allies on land, in the air and at sea. Russia has amassed military equipment in eastern Ukraine, conducted military flights near Alaskan airspace, and conducted submarine activity in the Arctic. Russian warplanes and bombers have also approached allied airspace frequently, forcing NATO warplanes to scramble to respond 10 times last Monday alone. In addition, three Russian nuclear ballistic missile submarines simultaneously broke through Arctic ice during a military exercise in late March, a move that coincided with the Kremlin’s move to boost its military capabilities in the Arctic. Russia’s frequent recent military actions have prompted U.S. European Command to raise its alert status to the highest level, with particular attention to activity along Ukraine’s eastern border, prompting Biden and U.S. officials to make frequent calls to the Ukrainian leadership and heads of state in the region.
On March 31, U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley called the chief of staff of the Ukrainian government forces, saying that Ukraine is an important NATO partner and that the U.S. would lend a helping hand to Ukraine, while issuing a warning to the Russians. The next day, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin spoke with Ukrainian Defense Minister Andrei Taran as well. Austin said that if the conflict in Donbas escalates, the United States “will not leave Ukraine alone to face the enemy” and renewed his commitment to military support for Ukraine “also applies to the situation in Crimea. On April 2, Biden spoke with Zelensky for the first time since he took office. In the phone call, Biden explicitly accused Russia of “aggression” against Ukraine and declared that the U.S. would firmly support Ukraine in taking back Crimea and the Donbas region. serious concern, showing the determination to try to deter the situation from getting out of hand.
After the U.S., Europe and NATO have taken a stand, the ball is once again back at the feet of the Russian authorities
On April 3, the U.S. military support for Ukraine became visible again. NATO announced that it would send more than 1,000 military personnel from five countries to hold a joint military exercise with the Ukrainian army in Ukraine, code-named “Cossack Mace 2021”. The headquarters of the U.S. Defense Ministry staff also noted that the joint military exercise is envisaged to help the U.S. government forces respond to “large-scale attacks by the aggressor countries on the border in order to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine. In Brussels, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and EC Vice-President Borrelli tweeted on April 4 that he had just spoken by phone with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba and said the EU is seriously concerned about Russia’s military activities around Ukraine and is “unwavering in its support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. He said the situation in Ukraine will be discussed at the next meeting of EU foreign ministers.
In addition, Germany and France issued a joint statement on April 3 expressing concern about the growing ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine. The German and French foreign ministries said “we are closely monitoring the situation, in particular the movement of Russian troops, and call on all parties to exercise restraint and work toward an immediate de-escalation of tensions.” Berlin and Paris reiterated their “support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.” Zelensky also spoke with British Prime Minister Johnson on April 5. “Russia’s recent actions pose a serious challenge to the security of Ukraine, NATO member states and Europe as a whole,” Zelensky introduced via Twitter. He said, “The call thanked Johnson for his continued support. We believe that Ukraine is not alone. We have the support of the G7 countries. NATO is the top priority for Ukraine.” This follows a joint statement by G-7 foreign ministers on March 18 reiterating the seven countries’ condemnation of “Russia’s continued actions to undermine the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine” and saying they would not recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea. With a clear statement from the Biden administration and NATO allies, the ball is now back at the feet of the Putin administration.
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