The aircraft carrier Liaoning (pictured front) exercises in the East China Sea in April 2018.
The Chinese Communist Party has recently intensified its provocative activities against Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines, sending military aircraft to disturb Taiwan with escalating frequency and amassing more than 200 fishing boats near the disputed Philippine islands, and sending six ships, including the Liaoning, through the waters between Okinawa and Miyako Island in Japan. Foreign analysis points out that this is the Chinese Communist Party testing Biden, and how the United States will respond is expected to determine the next test of the Chinese Communist Party.
China intensifies provocations against Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines
The Chinese Communist Party has recently increased tensions with Japan, announcing last week that Tokyo must give up all claims to the disputed Diaoyu Islands. The Diaoyu Islands are an uninhabited island chain that Japan has administered for decades, but which Beijing recently claimed as its territory.
On April 4, the Joint Staff of Japan’s Defense Ministry said the Communist Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and five frigates had passed through a key waterway near Japan and headed for the Pacific Ocean.
The Joint Staff said Japan deployed the JMSDF Akizuki-class destroyer Ryoetsu (JS Suzutsuki), as well as P-1 and P3C anti-submarine patrol aircraft, to gather information and monitor the movement of the Chinese Communist Party ships.
For Taiwan, the Chinese Communist Party has sent military aircraft to intrude more and more frequently. The most serious provocation occurred on March 29. The Chinese Air Force conducted a drill that included 10 warplanes flying into Taiwan’s air defense zone. The Washington Times quoted analysts as saying that this appeared to be a mock attack on Taiwan. This came just three days after the Chinese Communist Party sent 20 warplanes to infest Taiwan’s southwest air defense identification zone on March 36.
Official Chinese media said both sorties were intended to strengthen combat readiness and to put a military clamp on Taiwan.
The dispute between the Chinese Communist Party and the Philippines has also intensified recently, with some 220 Chinese vessels anchored in the waters around Whitsun Reef on March 7. The Philippine government considers the fishing boats to be a militia and has lodged a diplomatic protest against the “large and threatening” number of Chinese vessels.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said the boats were just “sheltering” and that the Philippines should take a “rational” view of the situation.
But two weeks later, there are still more than 40 Chinese vessels in the waters around NiuYue Reef. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs warned on Monday (April 5) that it would issue daily diplomatic protests as long as the Chinese vessels remain.
The Philippines issued a statement Monday using some of its strongest language yet, saying a 2016 international arbitration ruling made it clear that the CCP has no historical right to fish in the area, which falls within the Philippine nation’s exclusive economic zone. Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said in an April 3 statement that there are still 44 Chinese vessels around Bull Yoke Reef, despite improving weather conditions. He said, “I’m not a fool. The weather has been good so far, so there’s no reason for them to stay there.”
Carl Schuster, former director of operations for the U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, was quoted by Bloomberg as retorting, “Only a professional mariner would know this is a lie, and no one would ‘shelter’ their vessel weeks before a storm hits the storm area. If they were truly commercial vessels, it would cost hundreds if not thousands of dollars a day to leave them idle.”
Frequent Chinese Communist Party actions test how Biden responds
Bloomberg reports that these Chinese Communist Party actions increasingly look like a test of whether U.S. President Joe Biden will actually put them into action after promising to work with allies in the region to contain the Chinese Communist Party. Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. decried the Obama administration’s failure to deter the Chinese Communist Party in a similar incident in the 2012 sovereignty dispute over Huangyan Island (Scarborough Shoal), a precursor to Xi’s construction of military facilities throughout the South China Sea.
“This is a test to see what the (Biden) administration is willing to do,” Shuster said in response to the CCP’s recent frequent provocative actions, “and how the U.S. responds will determine the next test (of the CCP). Right now, everything we do is more lip service than substantive (action).”
The U.S. said last month that it supports the Philippines while accusing the Chinese Communist Party of using “maritime militias to intimidate, provoke and threaten other countries.” Asked about U.S.-China relations at a news conference last month, Biden said his administration would hold the Chinese Communist Party accountable for following the rules in the South China Sea and elsewhere.
The Biden administration would also appear to be weak if it did nothing. Over the past few years, the Trump administration has stepped up its challenge to the Chinese Communist Party’s sovereignty claims in the South China Sea, increasing the frequency of freedom of navigation operations in the disputed area.
In a sign of strong diplomatic support for Taiwan, the Biden administration last week allowed U.S. Ambassador to Palau (Palau) John Hennessey-Niland to accompany Palau’s leader on a visit to Taiwan. This was the first trip to Taiwan by a U.S. ambassador since the Carter administration shifted diplomatic relations from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.
The Washington Times also said the recent provocation appears to be a test of Beijing’s policy toward the Biden administration.
In public, Pentagon and State Department spokesmen have remained relatively calm about the Communist Party’s actions, making few public statements about the escalating tensions. The only comment from the Pentagon came from spokesman John Kirby, who last week downplayed the Communist Party’s Taiwan circumnavigation of the island. It’s not an activity we haven’t seen before,” he told reporters. There’s been no change in our commitment to assist Taiwan in its self-defense.”
Asked if he was concerned about military intimidation of U.S. allies, another defense spokesman said, “After further consideration, we will stand by Mr. Kirby’s original statement.” However, a State Department official said senior U.S. officials are concerned about the recent intensification of aggressive behavior by the Chinese Communist Party.
“The United States notes with concern the continued attempts by China (the Chinese Communist Party) to intimidate the region, including Taiwan.” The official said, “We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic and economic pressure on Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan.”
Retired Navy Capt. Jim Fanell, a former Pacific Fleet intelligence director, said that since President Biden took office in January, the Chinese Communist Party has significantly stepped up its aggressive actions against Taiwan, the Philippines in the South China Sea and Japan’s Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea.
Fanell argued that while there is an element of the Chinese Communist Party’s actions that wants to test the Biden administration, the substantial threat it poses cannot be ignored.
“While some of this can be attributed to a test of the new U.S. administration, the scope and scale of Chinese Communist military activity within the first island chain is unprecedented,” said Vanell, adding that “if left unchecked and unchallenged, the potential for military confrontation is growing. “
Vanell cited increased naval and air incursions by Chinese Communist forces into Taiwan’s defensive zone, as well as Chinese Communist forces circling Taiwan with warships and bombers and fighter jets.
He said, “Unless the Biden administration stands up and makes it clear in word and deed that the United States will not allow Beijing to invade Taiwan, this dangerous situation will continue to grow and spiral out of control.”
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