The platform of the South China Sea Strategic Situational Awareness Program (SCSPI), a Chinese think tank, disclosed on March 3 that the USS Muscatine (DDG-89) appeared at the mouth of the Yangtze River in the East China Sea. (SCSPI Twitter)
Against the backdrop of deteriorating U.S.-China relations, the two navies are making frequent moves in East Asian waters. The latest development is that Japan’s Defense Ministry informed on the 4th that six Chinese naval vessels, including the Liaoning, were spotted passing south through Okinawa Island. Meanwhile, the Chinese think tank “South China Sea Strategic Situational Awareness Program” social media platform disclosed on the 3rd that the USS Muscatine (DDG-89) appeared at the mouth of the Yangtze River in the East China Sea and said it was “clearly targeted”. “The USS Mastin (DDG-89) appeared at the mouth of the Yangtze River in the East China Sea.
According to the Nikkei Asian Review, Japan’s Defense Ministry’s Unification Bureau of Internal Affairs disclosed that the Liaoning carrier battle group was spotted in the morning of the 3rd, heading south between Okinawa’s main island and Miyako Island, and sailing into the Pacific Ocean. Among the six PLA warships, apart from the Liaoning, the other five warships are Type 055 destroyer Nanchang, Type 052D destroyer Chengdu and Taiyuan, Type 054A frigate Huanggang and Type 901 integrated supply ship Hulunhu. Japan’s Ministry of Defense has judged that the six Chinese ships are part of Beijing’s intensified maritime operations in the East China Sea, and Japan is strengthening its monitoring of the six ships’ movements.
In addition, Chinese think tank Peking University Institute of Oceanography “South China Sea Strategic Situational Awareness Program” released on Weibo on the 3rd, according to the AIS signal, on April 3rd around 00:00, the USS Mastin (DDG-89) appeared in the sea near the mouth of the Yangtze River in the East China Sea and headed south. The posting said that the USS Mastin departed from the Japanese port of Yokosuka on March 27 and headed straight for the East China Sea, which is “clearly targeted”.
The platform issued another article on the 4th, saying that the USS Roosevelt carrier strike group – the aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt, USS Russell “The USS Roosevelt carrier strike group – the aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt, the destroyer USS Russell, and the cruiser USS Bunker Hill – entered the South China Sea via the Strait of Malacca. This is the third time this year that the Roosevelt has entered the South China Sea for activities.
The article quotes Hu Bo, director of the think tank, as saying, “U.S. aircraft carrier operations in the South China Sea and other waters around China have become more abrupt and less regular since 2020, with a significant increase in the implication of actual combat deployments. The frequency of U.S. carriers in and out of the South China Sea will increase significantly to about dozens of times a year.”
The U.S. and Japan perform routine missions
In an interview with this station, Guo Yuren, a professor at the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Regional Studies at National Sun Yat-sen University in Taiwan, analyzed that the role and function of the Liaoning is still overwhelmingly set in China’s carrier force, with training as the main purpose, but entrained with the effect of intimidation, and unable to form a real threat to Japan.
Guo Yuren: “The United States’ close reconnaissance of China also flew very close to China a while ago. My own judgment is that the Taiwan Strait, including the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the United States has a precise grasp of the dynamics of the communist forces, which is a kind of deterrent behavior. The United States first moved his reconnaissance and deployment activities forward to curb the current activities of the Communist forces in the surrounding sea and airspace. The U.S. is acting deliberately.”
Shi Hsiao-Wei, editor-in-chief of the Military Intelligence and Aviation website, was interviewed and argued that the U.S. and China should just carry out routine missions. “The U.S. conducts his high seas freedom of navigation program; the mainland’s ships are now springing up, and of course they have to conduct his routine maritime training. Since he has built an aircraft carrier can not be parked in port and not move, but also need to have training and long sea voyage group training, in order to his future carrier battle group formation, the formation and operation (training).”
The U.S. and Japan summit is expected to be held on the 16th in Washington, D.C. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said on Fuji TV’s “Obsidian Report” program on the 4th: “In the case of Japan-U.S. cooperation to maintain the fear of resistance, it is important to create an environment that allows Taiwan and China to peacefully resolve (the Taiwan issue). ” Kan also stressed that the cross-strait situation is important to Japan.
U.S.-Japan alliance vs. China-South Korea talks
On the other hand, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong in Xiamen, Fujian Province, China, on March 3, and according to Yonhap News Agency, the two sides “agreed to start a 2+2 dialogue in the first half of the year.” Yonhap News Agency quoted South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Fu Shengchon as saying at a regular press conference on May 5 that “the Korea-China diplomatic security ‘2+2’ dialogue will be an opportunity for the diplomatic security departments of both countries to strengthen communication and cooperation, and the Defense Ministry will actively participate in the dialogue.”
Guo Yuren analyzed the combined relationship between the U.S., Japan and China and South Korea, pointing out that for Japan, leaving aside the attack on Taiwan, as long as a little conflict occurs around the Taiwan Strait, Japan has no choice and will definitely be involved in the war, which the Japanese government never wants to see.
Guo Yuren: “In addition to his own national security issues, Japanese society is extremely anti-war after World War II. Unfortunately, if a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, I think Japan as a nation will be dragged into the war without decisive power (indecisive). That’s why Kan shouted that there is room for peaceful handling across the Taiwan Strait.”
Guo Yuren believes that South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s “sunshine policy” is sympathetic to North Korea, and the important basis of the “sunshine policy” is China’s attitude. South Korea has already chosen a side to China.
Shi Xiaowei believes that the U.S. has a commitment to Taiwan, but the U.S. military power in the region is declining, so it must create an atmosphere of U.S.-Japan alliance and concerted action in the surrounding region. He reminded that Taiwan’s security cannot rely only on the great powers to join forces in the periphery, but to promote a new stage of cross-strait reconciliation.
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