On April 4, Japan’s Defense Ministry said that the Chinese Communist Party aircraft carrier Liaoning and five frigates passed through the Miyako Strait (Miyako Strait). This sortie by the CCP aircraft carrier is undoubtedly a significant escalation of military provocation in the East China Sea and the Pacific Ocean.
While the Chinese Ministry of Defense did not release the information in time, the SCS Probing Initiative revealed that the USS Roosevelt carrier battle group (CVN 71) entered the South China Sea via the Strait of Malacca.
In the face of escalating Chinese provocations, the U.S. military should have drawn up different plans, depending on how to choose. The most straightforward option would be to order the Roosevelt carrier fleet to move forward at full speed and drive straight into the Liaoning battle group, which would represent the first U.S.-China carrier standoff in the Pacific.
A Possible Carrier Standoff
The Chinese military has been dreaming of this for a long time, but should be wary of it, as the Liaoning carrier can only carry a limited number of carrier-based fighters, perhaps 20-22 at full load. The J-15 is too heavy to take off with bombs and full fuel tanks, so it should only be able to do “partner refueling”. 10-12 J-15s can take off with bombs and half tanks of fuel, while the other half will take off without bombs and full fuel, and will only be responsible for refueling. If the Liaoning does not carry enough carrier aircraft, it may be a big embarrassment. If the J-15s are all assigned to the Liaoning, the Shandong, which is currently on Hainan Island, will have no carrier aircraft.
The USS Roosevelt should carry at least 36 F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, plus 4-6 E-2C early warning aircraft, 4-6 EA-18G electric fighters, and various other helicopters, totaling about 90 aircraft.
If Roosevelt does target the Liaoning’s potential routes and chooses to directly confront it at sea, it would be a good opportunity to test the real combat capability and training level of the CCP carrier. The Roosevelt carrier could take off a large number of carrier aircraft hundreds of kilometers away, and then observe whether the Liaoning can provide timely warning and response, and what tactics it might adopt.
Whether the U.S. military wants to directly confront the Liaoning depends on how Secretary of Defense Austin chooses to do so. If he wishes to remain strong and does not tolerate escalating provocations from the CCP, he could well order the Roosevelt to push the Liaoning directly, and if he authorizes the Commander of Indo-Pacific Command or the Seventh Fleet, the possibilities would be even greater.
At that time, the true warning range of the Liaoning carrier fleet, how many J-15s it carries, how often it can take off one, whether it can take off and land smoothly under pressure, the commander’s ability to respond calmly, and the cooperation between surface warships and underwater submarines, anti-submarine capability, etc., will probably be in full view. If the CCP is not afraid of revealing its true combat power, it can still go around the eastern part of Taiwan as planned, then go straight down to the Philippine Sea and even force Guam. If the CCP learns that the U.S. aircraft carrier is coming, it will not dare to confront it directly and may turn back soon.
The timing of the Liaoning’s sortie coincided with the USS Roosevelt’s carrier training with the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean. The Roosevelt seems to have gotten her orders in time and quickly returned to the South China Sea via the Malacca Strait. If the U.S. and Chinese carriers do face off, it will be a new marker in the U.S.-China military tug-of-war in the Pacific and the first time in decades that the U.S. military has responded to the most direct challenge in the Pacific.
Possible Other Options
The Liaoning’s course would be directly under Xi Jinping’s command, and none of the other vice chairmen or members of the military commission or the naval commander would likely have the authority to give orders, only to make recommendations. The initiative of whether the U.S. and Chinese carriers will directly confront each other rests entirely with the U.S. military, and if they do, it will directly test the capabilities of Xi and the top brass of the CCP military.
If Biden is worried about a direct clash, he might intervene in the Defense Department, otherwise he should leave it mainly to Austin to deal with it, unless there is a gunpowder scene, and Biden should not go to the war room to watch the battle.
The U.S. military, of course, also has alternatives. It can send only SHIELD ships to accompany the Chinese Communist carrier aircraft, which should not yet threaten the U.S. SHIELD ships, and it can also send Virginia-class or Los Angeles-class attack submarines to follow underwater, which can also test the reaction ability and anti-submarine level of the Chinese Communist fleet.
The U.S. military could also send the amphibious assault ship USS America, carrying six F-35B fighters, close to the Liaoning. Alternatively, reconnaissance aircraft could be sent in alternately to approach from different directions to test the CCP frigate’s radar detection capabilities or to detect CCP underwater submarines.
If the U.S. carriers do not choose to confront the CCP, they may assume an alternative posture. The USS Roosevelt carrier fleet could approach the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea and set up a posture to attack Chinese military islands, and if the amphibious assault fleet carries marines, it could do the same, which would also touch Xi’s nerves. U.S. bombers and fighter jets could fly into the East China Sea to simulate an attack in the East China Sea, or they could fly into the South China Sea at the same time, and U.S. reconnaissance aircraft could again close in on the CCP’s coastal military bases.
The sudden sortie of the Liaoning aircraft carrier should not surprise the U.S. military; nor should the U.S. military be indifferent to the Chinese Communist Party’s open challenge in the Pacific. Regardless of how the U.S. military responds, the U.S.-China military confrontation in the Pacific has undoubtedly entered a new phase.
China’s Communist Party Again Wants Political Wrestling
The Liaoning’s last sortie was in April 2020 and part of the CCP’s quest for hegemony by epidemic, when it actually came close to defeat and began to fall into international isolation, forcing Xi Jinping to propose bottom-line thinking. When the USS Roosevelt carrier was found to be infected with the disease in late March and had retreated to Guam, Xi should have misjudged the situation and took advantage of the situation to send out the Liaoning carrier to provoke. The U.S. military then sent B-1B bombers to deploy to Guam and frequently flew to the East China Sea, South China Sea and Taiwan Sea. After that, the U.S. military pressed on all fronts, and in July the U.S. dual carriers had gathered twice for drills in the South China Sea. The Chinese Communist Party aircraft carriers did not dare to go out again.
After Biden took office, the Chinese Communist Party clearly misjudged again, and after frequent provocations in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. military responded not without toughness, but the White House’s attitude was relatively soft. Now that the Chinese Communist Party has fallen into a new round of international isolation and has again chosen to increase the scale of provocations, I believe the U.S. military will not let go, and the White House’s attitude has once again become more critical. If the U.S. government is only militarily strong, but not politically strong enough, the CCP will not easily give up its provocative stance. Regardless of how the U.S. military responds this time, the escalation of the Chinese Communist Party’s provocations is indeed worthy of the White House’s thinking twice, as strategic patience has largely failed and confrontation is inevitable.
Outside the United States, it is also worth observing how Japan responds. The Chinese Communist Party’s choice of action in the East China Sea shows once again that the military risk in the East China Sea is at least as high as in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Japan may not want to participate in another Sino-Japanese naval battle, but if the Chinese carrier fleet enters the Miyako Strait like nobody’s business, Japan may have to be prepared. Japan’s navy is already quite strong, and the Chinese Communist Party may be pushing Japan to remove constitutional barriers to return to the ranks of naval powers.
Japan may also focus more on the defense of Taiwan. The CCP’s ambitions are already self-evident, and the Diaoyu Islands are not the CCP’s real target. It is also time for the Taiwanese people to completely give up any hint of illusion about the CCP. Taiwan can only have security if the CCP regime disintegrates. The South Korean Foreign Minister has just visited China, and the South Korean government does not know how it feels about this, and it is not very realistic to stay out of the East China Sea.
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