China’s aging population is increasing, and some experts estimate that the country may lose 10 million workers each year in the next five years, and the economy may put the brakes on due to labor shortages. Earlier this year in March, the Chinese Communist Party’s plan to raise the retirement age in response sparked public concern. A popular post on Sina Weibo about raising the retirement age was read more than 210 million times in two weeks, with more than 19,000 comments.
Since 1962, when China entered the peak of childbirth, the legal retirement age has been 60 years old, which means that starting in 2022, China will experience a retirement peak. The proportion of people over 60 is expected to exceed 20% in the next five years.
Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, told Sohu Think Tank on March 29 that China’s demographic dividend has disappeared, and in the next five years, China is expected to reduce its labor force by 10 million a year, and labor shortage will become the norm.
Su Jian said that a reduction of 10 million per year is 100 million in 10 years. Japan, the world’s third largest economy, has a total population of a few hundred million and a working population of less than 100 million. This means that in 10 years, China will lose a Japanese labor force, “a very serious problem.”
Another estimate by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is that China’s urban workers’ pension fund will run out in 2035.
To improve the financial burden and economic problems caused by the aging population, in March this year, Li Keqiang proposed in the CCP’s government work report a plan to raise the statutory retirement age will be phased in as part of the CCP’s five-year plan for 2021 to 2025. Currently, the retirement age for employees of the CCP’s public sector and state-owned enterprises is set at 60 for men, 55 for female office workers and 50 for female blue-collar workers.
There is considerable public concern in China about the CCP’s proposed policy of implementing a gradual increase in the retirement age.
On Sina Weibo, a popular post about delayed retirement has been read more than 210 million times in the past two weeks, with more than 19,000 comments, the South China Morning Post reported on March 30.
Shenzhen IT expert Gong Wentao said no one knows what an aging China will look like in 20 years, and people are full of fear and anxiety about it.
James Qiu, a sales manager in his 30s in Guangzhou, said it was “unscientific and unfair” to raise the retirement age by comparing China with developed countries, where people usually work longer hours, because basic social security, support and public services in China lag far behind those in China’s basic social security, support and public services lag far behind those in developed countries.
He argued that delaying retirement would increase the burden of health care costs and mortgage payments.
A 24-year-old graduate student in Beijing is concerned that new graduates are already unable to find jobs and that older employees will deprive young people of jobs if they continue to work.
In response to the delayed retirement policy, middle-aged people nearing retirement worry that they will end up having to pay higher premiums and receive potentially lower pensions.
A 54-year-old municipal worker in Hunan province said he wants to quit his job at 55 to go home and take care of his grandchildren because of the high cost of child care in China.
The South Morning Report argues that China’s rapidly aging population and plummeting fertility rates are now setting the stage for a demographic time bomb that could put the brakes on China’s economic growth.
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