The issuance scale of mainland local bonds in March exceeded 470 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), with relatively stable issuance rates and maturities, while the issuance multiples were more upward, and the issuance scale already exceeded the level in October last year.
From the point of view of the issue term, the main issue term in March is 10 years and within the term issue size, a total of 470,305.52 billion yuan, accounting for 98.6% of the total size of the month, including only a small number of ultra-long-term.
Among them, as of March, Liaoning, Jiangsu and Sichuan provinces issue size occupies the top three.
Guangfa Securities research report that, with reference to 2018 to 2020, the first half of the year are 1 to 2 months of local debt issuance is larger. Since March 25, Hubei began to issue new local bonds, the subsequent local bonds may begin to issue new limits one after another, and the probability of ushering in the peak of local bond supply in April is higher.
According to the report of Huachuang Securities solid income team, considering general and special bonds included, the new local debt issuance scale in 2021 is expected to be around 4.62 trillion.
Affected by the heavy blow of the plague on the economy, 2020 is the busiest year since the issuance of local debt in China, with the annual issuance scale reaching a record 6.44 trillion yuan and the deficit rate set at more than 3.6%, breaking 3% for the first time, while the sharp expansion of the debt scale also leads to a debt ratio close to the lower limit of the alert range.
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