U.S. experts estimate that the Communist army will attack Taiwan in two years at the earliest, Taiwan scholars are optimistic

A few days ago, Taiwan and the United States signed a memorandum of cooperation on maritime patrol, and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) then sent a large scale of communist aircraft to disturb Taiwan. Now, in order to suppress the CCP, the United States is constantly upgrading its military deployment in the Asia-Pacific region, and many senior U.S. military generals have repeatedly warned that the CCP has a very high chance of attacking Taiwan in recent years, and will even make moves within two years at the earliest.

On March 26, a massive formation of 20 communist planes crossed Taiwan’s southwest air defense identification zone. The Ministry of National Defense confirmed that the communist planes were clearly targeting Taiwan and belonged to an attack pattern, while the U.S. military’s anti-communist strategy also escalated rapidly. The latest generation of Raytheon’s Block V Tomahawk missiles, capable of striking targets at sea more than 1,000 miles away, is rumored to be the new anti-ship killer, which will be delivered to the U.S. Navy next week, ready to be deployed in the Asia-Pacific theater to deter the Chinese Communist fleet, and the biggest powder keg in the conflict between the two sides is undoubtedly the Taiwan Strait.

Reporter Gu Shangjun: “Since the bottom of the U.S.-China confrontation posture, many U.S. experts and scholars and even military generals have proposed the possible timing of the Chinese Communist Party’s military action against Taiwan, from within six years, within two years, and even the U.S. presidential election, the U.S. government transition, all named, but with the passage of time, these claims have also been broken one by one.”

U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Davidson has assessed that the Chinese Communist Party will make a move against Taiwan within six years, while former President Trump’s national security advisor McMaster speculated that the best time for the Chinese Communist Party to make a move would be after the Winter Olympics come to an end in Beijing next year, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Successor Aquilino believes that the issue is more imminent than many people understand.

Lin Yu-fang, convener of the National Security Group of the National Chengchi Foundation: “What these so-called experts and scholars do not see is the degree of dependence of mainland China on the U.S. market, between mainland China and the United States, there are more than 500 billion dollars of trade a year, so mainland China, will not rashly conflict with the United States in order to fight Taiwan, the United States may not send troops to help Taiwan, but the United States will definitely Use such a thing, the Chinese mainland force to commit Taiwan, will be a comprehensive combination of its friends, the Chinese mainland to carry out, than now also 100 times the economic and trade sanctions.”

Taiwan is in the global trade strategy, once the war, may affect 2/3 of the global economic activities, more will damage the United States in the hearts of Asian allies, so the United States, whether by military or economic means, will certainly be everywhere to prevent the Chinese Communist Party against Taiwan, but theoretically war is a rational decision, but an overview of history but often take a surprising turn. Huang Jiezheng, an associate professor at the Tamkang Institute of Strategic Studies, said, “We focus too much on cross-strait relations, and less on the study of mainland China’s decision-making patterns, so especially on Xi Jinping’s approach to his thinking, as well as the dilemma he faces, will he have when to do some decision-making changes, this is more difficult to pinpoint.”

Dr. Chen Liangzhi, Institute for Strategic Policy, National Defense College: “2022 is the year China will hold its 20th Congress, Xi Jinping will enter his 3rd 5-year term, and the 5th year after 2022 is the time Xi Jinping will just finish his 3rd term, and it is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PLA, so there are many experts who believe that 2027 is a very important point in time for the PLA to attack Taiwan. ” Just when Chinese Communist Party President Xi Jinping reached the peak of his power, complemented by a strong Communist army, it is not impossible to have a singable war of unification against Taiwan, but American scholar Ge Laieyi reminded that what the outside world should really be concerned about is not the motivation of the Chinese Communist Party to invade Taiwan in the short term, but the gray zone strategy that is already happening, through the impact on Taiwan’s economy to boycott Taiwan’s goods and interfere with Taiwan’s shipping so that Taiwan is forced to bow down.

Dr. Chen Liangzhi of the Institute for Strategic Policy of the National Defense Council: “Buying Taiwan may be more economical than attacking Taiwan, and it saves money and low cost, but don’t overlook that this economic means is being carried out at the same time, and in fact its military-political-diplomatic-media-opinion war is also being carried out simultaneously.” Whether the Chinese Communist Party wants to give up without a fight, or wait until the time is ripe for large-scale military action, Taiwan is unable to grasp the situation, and actively enriching its economic and defense strength is always the best solution to change.