The USS McCampbell, a Burke-class destroyer, passes through the Taiwan Strait on May 13, 2020 (Photo credit: U.S. Pacific Fleet Facebook)
A number of bipartisan members of the House and Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees have said that of the potential seeds of military conflict currently planted around the world, “the most worrisome is Taiwan. Despite Beijing’s repeated warnings to Washington to “not hit bottom,” this did not diminish the unanimous cross-party support in Congress for stronger U.S.-Taiwan relations, with some members even countering that “the Chinese Communist Party cannot dictate U.S. foreign policy” and calling for ” the Chinese Communist Party clearly understands that the United States intends to honor its defense commitments to Taiwan.”
Beijing has recently stepped up its military threats against Taipei, frequently sending military aircraft across the line to harass Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, and other practices that have brought bipartisan concern about Taiwan to new heights in the U.S. Congress.
Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD), a Republican U.S. senator from South Dakota, told the Voice of America that the Communist Party’s behavior throughout the Indo-Pacific region is quite aggressive and worrisome, but Taiwan is indeed a hot spot.
“At this moment, Taiwan is obviously a very sensitive area,” Sen. Rounds said. Rounds is the only Republican in the Senate who straddles the two congressional committees on military and foreign affairs that are most relevant to international policy.
The congressional House and Senate Armed Services Committees have held back-to-back hearings over the past several weeks on the topic of military strategy and deployment in the Indo-Pacific region. The security situation in the Taiwan Strait has received a great deal of attention from members of both parties, with the possibility of a military conflict between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait being one of the most hotly debated topics.
File photo: Democratic U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA).
“One thing I did notice is that Taiwan is getting a very different level of attention in our hearings than it did three or four years ago, and even compared to a year ago, than it did when I first entered the Senate,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), a Democratic U.S. senator from Virginia, told Voice of America.
Kaine, who is a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, continued, “I don’t think it [the conflict] is inevitable, but we’d be foolish to think [it] is impossible.”
“I think the biggest concern right now is Taiwan because of its proximity to China and the Chinese Communist Party’s ongoing ambitions for Taiwan,” he said.
Kaine, who was paired with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to represent Democrats in the White House as a vice presidential candidate in 2016, is also a member of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. He and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) are the only Democrats in the Senate who are on both the Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees.
Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, is co-chair of the Senate Taiwan Connection. He, who has visited Taiwan several times, told Voice of America that he has been deeply concerned about the security situation in the Taiwan Strait during his nearly 30 years as a senator.
“I’ve always been concerned that (a military conflict) would happen, that there would be a military conflict in Taiwan,” Sen. Inhofe, 86, said, “because the Chinese Communist Party has been sharpening its sword for years, and I’ve seen it all these years here (in Congress), that China has become so powerful that they’re putting all their resources into rebuilding the military and things like that.”
File photo: Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA).
Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), a Republican federal congressman from Pennsylvania, is also concerned that he believes a military conflict with the Chinese Communist Party is almost inevitable for Taiwan and some other countries in the Indo-Pacific region.
“I don’t think I’m the only one, all indications are that they want to take Taiwan back under their rule, which is pretty much what’s happening in Hong Kong right now, and they’re moving as hard as they can in complete disregard of any agreement that they’ve made, and I think that’s their immediate goal,” Perry told the Voice of America.
Perry, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, recently introduced a new bill to strengthen U.S.-Taiwan defense cooperation. The bill, known as the Taiwan PLUS Act, aims to treat Taiwan as a member of the other NATO Plus countries and give it the same treatment as those countries in terms of arms sales.
The current members of NATO Plus include Japan, Australia, South Korea, Israel and New Zealand. Previously, some members of Congress also advocated the inclusion of India as a member of NATO Plus and the expansion of NATO Plus 5 to NATO Plus 6.
Perry stressed that this is to improve the military deterrence capability against the Chinese Communist Party. He also said the U.S. should be tougher on the CCP and give diplomatic recognition to Taiwan because “Taiwan is the real China.”
Republicans: Hope Chinese Communist Party clearly understands U.S. intentions to keep defense commitments to Taiwan
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and a Republican U.S. senator, also told Voice of America that “Taiwan is certainly the highest risk.”
“It’s a decision they [the Chinese Communist Party] have to make, and we’re certainly not going to go to war, but we have defense commitments that we intend to keep,” said Rubio, who has been a frequent voice in Congress and pushed for pro-Taiwan bills.
File photo: Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL).
“Frankly, if they take action against Taiwan, it would be a war,” Rubio told the Voice of America, “and that would mean they want to fight a war with the United States, but that’s not going to happen. I mean, I think the Chinese Communist Party would prefer that Taiwan itself give in and surrender to them. I don’t think they want an armed conflict.”
“I hope they clearly understand that the United States intends to keep the defense commitments it has made to Taiwan.”
Pressed further on when the trigger for a possible military conflict between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait would be, Rubio analyzed that he believes Beijing’s goal is for Taiwan to change from within and then voluntarily submit and move toward reunification, but that failure to achieve that goal could be a change of heart.
Rubio said, “I think their preferred approach is the cascade of changes that we’ve seen happen in Hong Kong, that is, from the inside out, ultimately hoping to create a composite reality where Taiwan is diplomatically isolated and no country will protect them, coupled with economic pressure, and then possibly use that to bring Taiwan to its knees.”
“The reason I say that Taiwan could be the trigger for a military conflict is that if you see the strong preference of the Taiwanese people in general, they don’t want to be forced to accept that form of arrangement with the Chinese Communist Party in Hong Kong. Then the Chinese Communist Party would counter that kind of message with more aggressive and intrusive behavior, and that would potentially lead to some military conflict, which in turn could trigger a broader conflict,” Rubio explained.
“I also think that for Xi Jinping, it’s kind of about how to give him the final word, and I think that part of Xi Jinping’s political legacy is that he wants to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control.”
Republican U.S. Rep. Perry also predicted to Voice of America, “I do think Xi will wait until after the Winter Olympics, or at least after that I think he’ll have no qualms about it.”
Perry’s assessment echoes that of Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), a Republican U.S. senator from Arkansas. Cotton used the example of Russia’s military invasion of Crimea in 2014 during a recent Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to warn that Beijing might follow such a pattern. Cotton said Russia invaded Crimea militarily on Feb. 27, 2014, just four days after that year’s Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia, ended Feb. 23.
“The Beijing Winter Olympics will come to an end on Feb. 23 next year,” Cotton cautioned at the hearing.
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