Biden will soon meet with Kan, and the joint statement to be issued by the U.S. and Japan is drawing attention. Japan’s Kyodo News said Kan is expected to leave Tokyo on April 8, visit Washington on April 9 for a summit with Biden, and return on April 11.
Japan has deepened its concern about the threat of the Chinese Communist Party to East Asia, and former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe recently warned that the Asian region, including Japan, has become the frontline of the confrontation between the United States and China. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reports that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and U.S. President Joe Biden will issue a joint statement after their meeting, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan Strait. Japan’s Kyodo News said Kan is expected to leave Tokyo on April 8, visit Washington for a summit with Biden on the 9th and return on the 11th.
What issues are likely to be touched upon by Kan’s meeting with Biden? How will the two allies respond to the imbalanced situation in East Asia?
Yaban Akio: Kan meets with Biden, Asia-Pacific security is an important issue
The Japanese newspaper Sankei Shimbun’s Taipei branch director Akio Yabata said the Japanese media reported that the main themes of the talks between Kan and Biden were the economy, high technology and environmental and climate change. As for the Asia-Pacific security issue, which is of greater concern to the outside world, Akio Yabata said there are several signs of U.S. foreign policy adjustment after Biden took office. First, Trump‘s confrontation with the Chinese Communist Party is comprehensive, while Biden’s is a partial confrontation, with some confrontation and some cooperation. Second, from a single fight to now fight a group fight, Kan to go to the United States to make a statement and the United States cooperation, after Biden came to power, the Japanese government, mainly Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi, in the issue of Taiwan has a clearer statement, the previous Japanese government has never been so publicly expressed, which, Kan will continue to talk when he meets Biden.
Yaban Akio said that U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Davidson recently said the threat of communist forces committing Taiwan could emerge in the next six years. Davidson’s successor, Aquilino, added that it could be even closer. These messages are clear messages at a Time of U.S. foreign policy shift to remind the CCP not to misjudge that the U.S. doesn’t care about Taiwan anymore. In particular, Nobuo Kishi, Yaban said that Japan’s peace constitution enshrines Japan’s right to self-defense, not the right to declare war or engage in war. By making such a public statement, at the risk of being raised by the opposition party as unconstitutional, Nobuo Kishi is sending a strong message to the Chinese Communist Party. Because many wars in history, like the Korean War, many occurred because of strategic miscalculations, believing that the U.S. would not intervene, and that once the war began, it would be impossible to recover. They judged that Xi Jinping needed political achievements before the 20th Congress and could cause conflicts around Taiwan if he mistakenly thought that the U.S. did not care about Taiwan. He believes that from the U.S.-Japan 2+2, to Kan meeting Biden, will position the Taiwan Strait issue as a common goal of the U.S. and Japan. If the U.S. and Japanese heads of state write in a statement emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan Strait, it will have a profound impact on the entire Northeast Asian landscape and even the world situation.
The Chinese Communist Party’s introduction of a maritime police law in February has deepened Japan’s concern about the threat from the Chinese Communist Party, and the Global Times recently quoted scholars as pointing out that attacking China’s maritime police law is confusing. Yaban Akio said that the Chinese Communist Party is the one who is confusing the issue, as the Chinese Communist Party alleges that similar laws exist abroad. But the biggest points of controversy in the maritime police law, first of all, the maritime police is the police, the police to maintain social security and order in the face of crime, the police do not have the right and obligation to defend sovereignty, the task of defending national sovereignty is the military. It is controversial that the Chinese Communist Party has given the Marine Police the task of defending national sovereignty. Moreover, the CCP’s maritime police vessels are very large and equipped with military-grade weapons, far exceeding the equipment of the police, compared to the police forces of foreign countries, such as Japan around the Senkaku Islands (known as the Diaoyu Islands in China), which are defended by the Maritime Security Agency, a police force. In the event of a conflict, the Chinese Communist Party’s maritime police are nominally police but essentially military. When the Japanese Maritime Security Agency’s police force faces the Chinese maritime police, who represent the power of the state, the Security Agency has no authority to fire, but the Chinese Communist Party’s maritime police law asserts that weapons can be used. The Chinese Communist Party argues that foreign countries can also use weapons, however, foreign maritime police can only use weapons when facing resistance from criminals, and cannot fire if facing the other country’s sovereign military or official ships. So the Chinese Communist Party’s own explanation is problematic.
Japanese scholars say China’s maritime police law is a “war act”
Japan’s deepening concern about the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party to East Asia and the security of the Asia-Pacific region will be important issues in the meeting between Kan and Biden. The picture shows Kan sitting on an F4, the main fighter plane of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces.
In addition, Yaban Akio said the Chinese Communist Party’s definition of sovereign waters is vague and broad. Read the contents of the maritime police law carefully, the Chinese Communist Party can easily cause war if it is strictly enforced. For example, China’s maritime police law says that if foreign vessels violate the sovereign scope of China’s waters, they can open fire and use weapons, but the United States, for example, since the Obama regime, the United States has enforced freedom of navigation in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, which is clearly into the sovereign waters claimed by the CCP, and if the CCP strictly enforces the maritime police law, it will definitely cause war, so some Japanese scholars say the maritime police law is “war bill”.
Moreover, Yaban emphasized that the CCP is selective in enforcing the law, putting the law in place first and enforcing it when it thinks it can be enforced. It is like when the National Security Law was first enacted in Hong Kong, the CCP did not act, and then later took advantage of the window of the U.S. election to make major arrests and suppressions of democrats. Another example is like the anti-secession law enacted by the CCP in 2005, which, if strictly enforced, would have made most DPP politicians in Taiwan wanted criminals. The same goes for the maritime police law, which the CCP has enacted and can enforce selectively at any time, which poses a great threat to other countries.
In the face of Biden’s multilateral diplomacy, the Chinese Communist Party has also actively drawn in Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern countries. Wang Yi visited six Middle Eastern countries in late March, and invited the foreign ministers of Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines to visit China from March 31 to April 2.
In this regard, Yaban Akio said that Trump’s way of dealing with the Chinese Communist Party is more effective, Obama and Biden are to fight in a group, pulling together allies to surround the Chinese Communist Party. But the interests of different countries, the Chinese Communist Party can be broken down one by one, this time the four countries of Southeast Asia invited to China, is not want Southeast Asian countries also to form a siege network around the Chinese Communist Party. After the formation of the U.S. fight against the group, China-Russia relations drew closer, and Wang Yi was the first foreign journalist to ask a question by name at the press conference of the two sessions this year, indicating the obvious intention of China-Russia cooperation against Western sanctions. North Korea also jumped in and put out word to launch missiles and stand with China and Russia. Wang Yi went to Iran and signed a 25-year cooperation agreement, forming two camps against each other. It remains to be seen how the world rules and order will change as we move from Trump into the Biden era.
Yaban Akio said, in the camp of besieging the CCP, Japan and the United States clearly stand in alliance, but South Korea obviously does not want to offend the CCP, the statement issued after the 2+2 meeting between South Korea and the United States, delete all the words criticizing the CCP, indicating that the countries besieging the CCP have their own ulterior motives, and Southeast Asian countries are simply not capable of resisting the thunderbolt of the CCP, and are more easily intimidated by the CCP. The countries that are fighting against the U.S. also have their own ulterior motives. Last year, during the Sino-Indian conflict, Russia sat back and watched the tiger fight, selling a lot of weapons to India. So the international community will become more complicated in the future.
Chinese Communist Party’s military building goal directly affects Japan’s national security
In the face of Biden’s multilateral diplomacy, the CCP has also actively drawn in Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern countries. Wang Yi visited six Middle Eastern countries in late March, and invited the foreign ministers of Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines to visit China from March 31 to April 2. Wang Yi and Iran are pictured signing a 25-year cooperation agreement.
Guo Yuren, a professor at the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Regional Studies and director of the Center for Japanese Studies at Sun Yat-sen University in Taiwan, said Japan’s recent spate of public statements about the Taiwan Strait situation is understandable. “Because in the past few years, the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party to Japan in the Japanese periphery has been rising year by year and growing exponentially.” One is the East China Sea issue, where new regulations on the use of force under China’s maritime police law have intensified the conflict between China and Japan around Diaoyutai. Not to mention that from 2012 to the present, China and Japan have been encountering each other in the Diaoyutai and East China Sea airspace, and the confrontation is getting higher and higher. Second, Xi Jinping said that the goal of the Communist Party of China to build a first-class army for 100 years includes the development of an ocean-going navy, indicating that the PLA should be able to break the blockade of the first and second island chains. The first island chain is from Japan’s southern Kyushu, south to the Okinawa Islands, Miyako Island, and Taiwan. Guo Yuren said: “The Chinese Communist Party’s goal of building the military has a direct impact on Japan’s national security”. The third is the situation in the Taiwan Strait has risen sharply in the past few years, the Communist Party aircraft and ships around Taiwan to disturb Taiwan, the Chinese Communist Party since 2013 in the South China Sea island-building, island militarization, trying to control the South China Sea shipping lanes, Japan has more than 80% of the energy through this shipping lanes, Japan regarded as a maritime lifeline, Japan felt a very direct sense of threat.
Guo Yuren further pointed out that the rapid deterioration of U.S.-China relations after Trump took office until Biden took office earlier this year, the situation has not improved, the deterioration of U.S.-China relations also directly impacted Japan’s national security.
As for the recent rumors that Japan will deploy more SDF troops in the island of Yonaguni, Guo Yuren said that after Abe came to power at the end of 2012, the outline of the defense plan was adopted in 2013, as Japan’s medium and long-term defense policy, the SDF deployment focus on the southwest islands located in the first island chain. Japan deploys radar, anti-ship anti-aircraft missiles, coastal police forces and marines on these small islands. Japan has more than 6,000 outlying islands, many of which are uninhabited. Japan has been strengthening its anti-island seizure and anti-aircraft and anti-ship capabilities to prevent the occupation of these islands by the Chinese Communist Party’s maritime militia. The southwestern tip of Japan is the closest to Taiwan, about 110 kilometers east of Yilan, and has an important strategic position. When Chinese ships pass through, these islands are very important surveillance points.
Guo Yuren analyzed that Japan’s defense of the outlying islands is strategically different from Taiwan’s concern about the Communist Party’s seizure of Dongsha Island, which is more than 570 kilometers away from Taiwan and is isolated from Taiwan, while there are many small islands around Wunaguni Island, which are convenient for logistical supply reinforcements. Therefore, it is relatively easy for Japan to counter the Chinese Communist Party to seize the island, unlike the Chinese Communist Party, which has practical tactical difficulties in Taiwan if it wants to seize Dongsha Island.
The joint statement of the U.S.-Japan 2+2 meeting has stated that the U.S. defense of Japan under Article V of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty covers the Diaoyu Islands, and Kan is bound to ask Biden to make this commitment public once again. The second focus of Kan’s meeting with Biden is the South China Sea, the third is the security situation around the Taiwan Strait, and the fourth is the issue of North Korea, whose missile threat is a direct impact on Japan’s national security.
U.S. and Japanese heads of state joint statement if written in the Taiwan Strait is of great significance
If the U.S. and Japanese heads of state jointly declare the importance of the Taiwan Strait, it will show that the U.S.-Japanese alliance covers Taiwan, which is of great strategic importance.
The U.S. and Japanese heads of state have agreed to a joint statement on the importance of the Taiwan Strait, which would show that the alliance between the two countries covers Taiwan and is of great strategic importance, and the Chinese Communist Party is certainly very concerned about this development.
He pointed out that under the Trump Administration, the U.S. Congress passed three important pieces of legislation, the Taiwan Travel Act, the Taiwan Reassurance Act, and the Taipei Act, and that the National Defense Authorization Act for each year from 2018 to 2020 emphasized the enhancement of Taiwan-U.S. diplomacy, and in November 2020 Pompeo lifted the restrictions on the terms of U.S. engagement with Taiwan. The recent visit of the U.S. ambassador to Taiwan with President Palau shows that Biden seems to try to fulfill these laws, Kuo said:-“If the provocative behavior of the Chinese Communist Party continues unchanged, or if U.S.-China relations continue to deteriorate, the United States will upgrade its diplomatic treatment of Taiwan.” He believes that “U.S. policy toward Taiwan has turned clear, the U.S. has made the state of engagement with Taiwan public, publicly supporting Taiwan, which is drawing a red line against the Chinese Communist Party.” It may shift from cooperation on economic and trade, non-security issues, to good governance, and possibly to diplomacy and military. In the past, Taiwan-U.S. military cooperation and exchanges were mostly under the table, but in recent years it was the United States that took the initiative to open up. Kuo pointed out that in some recent video conferences at Washington think tanks, the U.S. side has talked about the possibility of senior U.S. military generals, including the U.S. commander in Japan or the Indo-Pacific commander in Hawaii, visiting Taiwan if the situation between the U.S. and China continues to deteriorate.
The security situation around Japan has changed a lot in the past few years, from the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, and the island chain from Japan to Taiwan and the Philippines has become the first line of defense against the Chinese Communist threat,” said Guo Yuren.
The Sankei Shimbun recently reported that Chinese naval vessels sailing near the Diaoyutai Islands would turn off their radar during the handover to avoid being detected by the U.S. military and the Self-Defense Forces, presumably when the Chinese Communist Party was simulating actual combat. Guo Yuren said the last three years the Chinese navy has been practicing this subject, so Japan is with the United States to purchase Global Hawk reconnaissance aircraft.
In the face of rising security risks in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan and Indonesia held their first Japan-Indonesia 2+2 talks in five years on March 30, signing an arms sales cooperation agreement and declaring their commitment to maintaining maritime order. Guo Yuren pointed out that since 2013, when the Chinese Communist Party built artificial reefs in the South China Sea, Japan and the United States have been working together on a “capability building program” that focuses on countries in the South China Sea, including Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia, all participating in the program. The purpose is to build basic maritime security capabilities for the South China Sea countries, with which Japan has signed security agreements, held joint military exercises or trained naval patrols in the past seven years, in response to the expansion of the Chinese Communist Party in the South China Sea. He noted that while Japan and Southeast Asian countries, including Taiwan, are economically and trade dependent on China, with its top trading partner almost always being China, security preparations are a different matter. Kuo said Kan has so far not made strong statements on the Chinese Communist Party’s handling of Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and that tougher talks have been given to Japan’s foreign minister and defense minister, and Xi Jinping has been hoping to visit Japan, so Sino-Japanese relations are still stable.
Kan to invite Biden to Olympics
The Tokyo Olympics have been postponed for a year due to the Epidemic, and Kan has decided to hold an Olympics without spectators this summer, and will invite Biden to attend.
This year is very important for Japan, not only between the United States and China to play an important role, Japan is also facing an election year. According to Guo Yuren, Kan has decided to hold an Olympics without spectators this summer, with no revenue from tourists at all, and is destined to lose money, and Kan made this decision mainly for re-election. Because the Olympics may be able to score extra points if they are held, if they are not held, then the river will go down and Kan’s support will only decline. Kan has said that he will invite Biden to the Olympics to help himself cover a stage that can add points. As for Xi Jinping, who has been hoping to visit Japan? Guo Yuren said that if Xi Jinping goes to Japan to attend the Olympics, whether it is the opening or closing ceremony, it will stir up a pool of spring water because of the strong anti-China atmosphere of the conservative faction in Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, which is not conducive to Kan’s search for consensus within the party.
Therefore, the Olympics will be one of the topics of talks between Kan and Biden, but the most important thing is how Japan and the United States will work together to deal with the provocative behavior of the Chinese Communist Party.
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