Beijing has formally finalized details of its plan to overhaul Hong Kong‘s elections, including the inclusion of a large number of seats for “patriotic and Hong Kong-loving groups” in the election committee. The influence of local real estate developers, who may have influenced the election of the Chief Executive in the past, was then diluted. Analysis suggests that Beijing will no longer need to align itself with the Hong Kong business community to do whatever it wants in Hong Kong.
The Standing Committee of the Chinese National People’s Congress (NPCSC) passed an amendment to Annex I of the Hong Kong Basic Law, the method for selecting the Chief Executive of Hong Kong, with the most important change to the composition of the Election Committee. The number of members of the EC was increased from 1,200 to 1,500, and the number of members from each of the four sectors was increased to five, with 300 members from each sector, and a large number of “patriotic and Hong Kong-loving groups” were included.
Property developers can no longer influence the Chief Executive election?
In the past, although Hong Kong’s Chief Executive election was described as a “small circle” election, the status of Hong Kong’s major real estate developers is still significant, and they directly or indirectly influence the election committee members in the industrial, commercial, financial and some professional fields, which is enough to be the “kingmaker”. In the past, when Beijing wanted to recommend a candidate, it had to consider the “kingmaker’s” position first.
Before the December 2016 EC election, Hong Kong property developer Li Ka-shing, a member of the special election committee, said he hoped the new CE would “bring hope” to Hong Kong. At the Time, Hong Kong was experiencing the 2014 Umbrella Revolution, and the public was generally discontent with the then Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying. Soon after, Leung announced that he would not seek re-election for Family reasons, but it was widely rumored that the real reason was his failure to get the support of Hong Kong’s property developers.
And in the 2017 CE election, Li Ka-shing also failed to voice his support for Carrie Lam, as did his two sons who are also members of the election committee. A pro-Beijing think tank wrote an article last year, worrying that Li Ka-shing, in conjunction with other members of the EC whom Beijing cannot control, would exert political energy to sway next year’s CE election.
Analysis: Hong Kong property developers’ political and economic influence will be greatly reduced
Hong Kong current affairs commentator Lam Wo-li said in an interview with this station that with Beijing’s latest structure of the Election Committee, the influence of the business sector on the CE election will be greatly reduced by the inclusion of a large number of groups that can be directly controlled by the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in Hong Kong.
Lam Wo-li said: There are 300 members in the industrial, commercial and financial sectors, but their influence has been diluted because of the increase in the number of all EC members. It also includes certain professional sectors who may be representing the business sector, and the proportion of seats is also diluted.
He said that in the 1970s, Hong Kong’s business sector was dominated by British groups, and then developed to be controlled by local consortia represented by Li Ka-shing, but nowadays, Hong Kong has become dominated by Chinese companies.
The economic structure of Hong Kong now tends to be more and more dominated by mainland companies, so the influence of the traditional representatives of Hong Kong’s business community, namely those led by Li Ka-shing, including the election of the Chief Executive, has been relatively reduced,” Lam said.
Beijing no longer needs to ally with the Hong Kong business community in the future
Cai Ziqiang, a senior lecturer in the Department of Politics and Administration at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said Beijing’s aim is to increase the security factor by putting the main body of the election system on the EC, and at the same time reduce its reliance on Hong Kong property developers, so that it will not have to ally with the Hong Kong business community in the future.
Cai Ziqiang said: Reduce the reliance on the industrial and commercial sector, real estate developers. The objective result of adding new groups to the EC is not only to dilute the influence of the democratic camp, but also the industrial and commercial sector. And these organizations, purely in terms of social representation and function, are difficult to justify, such as the Crime Suppression Committee and the Fire Prevention Committee. The reason is that these organizations are more operable for Beijing, so in the future Beijing can do what he wants without having to build alliances with the business community.
A large number of seats for “patriotic and Hong Kong-loving groups” in the Election Committee
Analyzing the reorganized EC, it is worth noting that many new groups are “patriotic and Hong Kong-loving organizations”, including the new “grassroots associations” and “fellow villagers’ associations” in the third sector, each with 60 seats. Each of them accounts for 60 seats.
In the fourth sector, there are 156 representatives from the “Sub-district Committees”, “District Fight Crime Committees” and “District Fire Safety Committees” in Hong Kong, Kowloon and the New Territories. The fourth sector also includes representatives from “Mainland Hong Kong people’s groups”, with 27 seats.
The newly-created Fifth Sector, including the Hong Kong National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, has a total of 190 seats, a significant increase of 103 seats; there are also representatives of “Hong Kong members of national organizations”, with 110 new seats. The above-mentioned “patriotic and Hong Kong-loving groups” alone account for 603 seats.
Reducing or even abolishing the democratic camp’s voting block
On the one hand, Beijing has increased the number of seats for “patriotic and Hong Kong-loving groups”, while on the other hand, it has reduced or even abolished the groups that were previously captured by the pro-democracy camp. As expected, the original 117-seat District Council group was cancelled. The new list also shows that the “higher Education sector”, which originally had 30 seats, has also been withdrawn.
The medical and health services sectors, which originally had a total of 60 seats, were merged into one group, and the number of seats was halved to 30. The “Social Welfare” and “Sports, Performing Arts, Culture and Publication” sectors were both reduced from 60 to 30 seats respectively.
The above-mentioned groups, together with the catering, accounting, legal and other professional sectors, which used to be the main battleground of the democratic camp, will be completely abolished from individual votes to group votes, and some seats will be elected by pro-Beijing organizations. For example, half of the seats in the accounting sector (15 seats) are to be nominated from among the Hong Kong accounting consultants appointed by the Chinese Ministry of Finance; nine seats in the legal sector are to be nominated from among the Hong Kong members of the China Law Society.
Subject to “eligibility” to set up a “chief convener”
Candidates for the Election Committee, the Chief Executive and the Legislative Council, like candidates for the Legislative Council, are subject to a “Qualifications Committee” to review and confirm their qualifications, and to determine whether they uphold the Hong Kong Basic Law and pledge allegiance to the SAR, based on a review by the National Security Department of the Hong Kong Police Force. Its decision is not affected by litigation.
The EC has a convenor system, with the Chief Convenor being a member of the EC who “holds a leading position in the State” and a number of convenors designated for each sector of the EC to convene EC meetings when necessary.
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