Another two public opinion surveys show that more than 20% and 30% of respondents have plans to leave Hong Kong permanently as well as emigrate overseas. One of the public opinion surveys shows that 65% of respondents have no confidence in Hong Kong’s future political environment, and scholars analyze that the survey reflects that the implementation of the National Security Law has not brought stability to Hong Kong.
Hong Kong experienced the largest anti-Send-China social movement in 2019, and by the end of June last year, Beijing bypassed Hong Kong’s local legislative process for the first Time and directly implemented the “Hong Kong National Security Law” in Hong Kong, triggering a new wave of emigration, causing concern from all walks of Life.
Immigration wave triggers dropout wave
Hong Kong “Ming Pao” Monday (March 29) front page headlines reported that many Hong Kong people migrate with their families or send their children to study abroad, a number of prestigious schools recently announced that they accept applications to join the new school year.
The report quoted, an elementary school principal said that in the past, only sporadic students dropped out of school each year, since 2019 has been a multiplier growth. He analyzed that the school sector currently has two “moving lines”, there are direct-funded private schools due to student migration, preparing for overseas Education to international schools, rare admissions students, Parents of students staying in Hong Kong to see their favorite schools have vacancies will try to switch schools.
For the first time, there are data showing that Hong Kong has a “wave of capital”
Although the Hong Kong government has always denied that the influx of immigrants in recent years has led to a large amount of capital outflow, however, Reuters on Friday (March 26) cited the Canadian financial regulator data show that the flow of funds from the Hong Kong banking system to Canada in 2020 exceeded $ 34.7 billion, equivalent to as much as 43.6 billion Canadian dollars (about 269.3 billion Hong Kong dollars), an increase of about 10% compared to 2019; the figures also increased by 46% compared to 2016 46%, a record high since 2012, equivalent to about 1.9% of the Hong Kong banking system outflow of deposits, but also the first time data show that Hong Kong has a “tide of capital”.
A spokesman for Canada’s anti-money laundering department, the Wealth Transactions and Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC), told Reuters that the data only reflected a portion of the funds that legally flowed into Canada from Hong Kong, not including transfers of C$10,000 or less, virtual currency transactions, and transactions between other financial institutions.
The Hong Kong Institute of Public Opinion Research (HKIPR) released its first public opinion survey on “Hong Kong’s immigration flow” on March 19, which showed that 21% of respondents have plans to leave Hong Kong permanently (Voice of America/Tang Wai Wan)
Poll says 65% have no confidence in Hong Kong’s future political environment
Formerly known as the Public Opinion Programme of the University of Hong Kong, the “We the Hong Kong People” Project has recently conducted its first ever opinion survey on Hong Kong’s emigration.
Results showed that 65% of the respondents were not confident in Hong Kong’s future political environment, while 25% were confident. 64% of the respondents were not confident in the future personal freedom enjoyed by Hong Kong people, while 29% were confident.
21% of respondents have plans to leave Hong Kong permanently
As for Hong Kong people’s intention to emigrate, the survey asked whether the respondents have plans to leave Hong Kong permanently. 21% of the respondents said they have plans to leave Hong Kong permanently, while 69% of the respondents have no plans to leave Hong Kong.
When asked about the main reason for people to leave Hong Kong permanently, 38% of the respondents said personal freedom; 17% said Hong Kong’s politics; personal living standard and Family‘s future were both considered by 11% of the respondents as the reason for leaving Hong Kong permanently.
In terms of political orientation, among the 577 self-identified non-establishment supporters, 14% said they plan to leave Hong Kong permanently; 36% said they have no confidence in the future political environment in mainland China; 43% said they have no confidence in Hong Kong’s future political environment and personal freedom; 37% of non-establishment supporters also have no confidence in Hong Kong’s economic prospect.
We Hong Kong People” project honorary director and current affairs commentator Wong Wai-kwok said the poll results reflect that 14% of non-democratic supporters have plans to leave Hong Kong permanently, reflecting that the implementation of the national security law has not brought stability to Hong Kong (Voice of America/Tong Wai-wan)
Scholars say poll shows national security law has not brought stability
We Hong Kong People” project honorary director and current affairs commentator Wong Wai-kwok said, Hong Kong from the 1980s, the Sino-British negotiations on the transfer of sovereignty, the outbreak of migration, until July 1, 2020, the national security law came into effect, “the new Hong Kong” was established. After that, the survey results show that among the non-democratic supporters, 14% said they plan to leave Hong Kong permanently, reflecting that the implementation of the national security law does not bring stability to Hong Kong.
Huang Weiguo said: “In terms of personal freedom, non-democratic supporters are very unsure of 28%, a few unsure of 14%, it is interesting to see one thing, if we say that non-democratic supporters, that is, think that democracy for Hong Kong is ‘thrown (obstacle)’, ‘obstructed’, ‘obstructed’. If we say that non-democratic supporters think that democracy is an ‘obstacle’ or an ‘impediment’ to Hong Kong, or a source of unrest in Hong Kong, why are these people not basically ‘in jail’ or ‘locked up’ (scabbard) for now? Why not think that the present society is not very good? And not ah, the original you will see, especially they choose a more extreme option, very unconfident surprisingly is the majority.”
Wong Wai-kwok said the survey results also show that there may be different spectrums among non-democratic supporters, and even internal fragmentation, and no confidence in personal freedom, but also become the main reason for the democratic camp and non-democratic supporters to leave Hong Kong permanently.
Huang Weiguo said: “When Hong Kong democracy, we think there is no? We all have a number in mind, then freedom, under the national security law, we all seem to feel a low pressure enveloped words, so you will see that is personal freedom that part, have become a reason for both the democrats or non-democratic supporters, choose to leave Hong Kong permanently.”
Hong Kong people’s lack of confidence in the political environment of the Communist Party draws attention
The survey also asked respondents how confident they were in the future political environment of mainland China, and the results showed that 58% of the respondents were not confident, while 28% were confident.
The survey showed that 21% of the respondents have plans to emigrate, and 14% of the non-democratic supporters also have plans to emigrate, which he thinks is “a bad sign” and should be taken seriously (Voice of America/Tang Hui Yun).
The Chinese University of Hong Kong School of Social Sciences Visiting Lecturer Yip Kwok-ho said that the issue of Hong Kong people migrating is very important, especially in the past few years, Hong Kong’s political environment has undergone significant changes, Hong Kong people’s next choice deserves attention.
He also said that the poll reflected that only less than half of the non-democratic supporters have confidence in China’s political environment, which is rare in similar surveys in Hong Kong, and the impact on the desire to emigrate deserves attention.
Yip Kwok Ho said: “Many researchers, or many feel that the political spectrum in Hong Kong over the past 10 years has changed a lot, in addition to the traditional so-called democrats or the so-called pro-establishment faction, we have more a local faction, for example, after 2016, a lot of young people, especially in the past 10 years, may have his own different views on the political development of mainland China. So I think this topic is particularly worth taking out to discuss how it will affect the impact of planned immigration (people).”
Scholars say 21% of citizens have plans to immigrate worthy of attention
Yip Kwok Ho said that immigration is a painful decision to leave their familiar environment, occupation, is a good life change, and often even “downward mobility”, many professionals after immigration, may not be able to engage in the original work, the survey shows that 21% of respondents have plans to immigrate, even if the non-democratic supporters also have 14% The survey shows that 21% of respondents have plans to emigrate, even among non-democratic supporters, 14% also have plans to emigrate, he believes that “is a bad signal”, it is worth paying attention to, because the brain drain will affect economic development, but also will be detrimental to government governance, but the Hong Kong government does not seem to pay much attention.
Yip Kwok Ho said: “Overall, there are more than 1 in 5, that is, 21%, that is, respondents from the democratic camp plus non-democratic supporters, respondents, adding up to 1 in 5, there are plans to possibly prepare (immigration), this proportion is actually worth our attention, this proportion is actually not low, because many people really feel dissatisfied with the status quo, political dissatisfaction, economic You can see that even non-democratic friends, respondents, there are 14%, that is, 1 in 7, in fact, I think there are a lot of them, the overall view, although Their (intention to emigrate) reasons are different.”
This wave of immigrants or will not return to Hong Kong
He believes that one of the main reasons for the wave of immigrants in 1997 is that Hong Kong people are worried about the difference between the economic systems of Hong Kong and China, but the relative stability of Hong Kong before 2003, Beijing is less involved in Hong Kong affairs, people feel that “Hong Kong is still Hong Kong” (Hong Kong is still Hong Kong). Hong Kong” (Hong Kong is still Hong Kong), so many immigrants overseas Hong Kong people back.
According to Yip Kwok Ho, the new wave of emigration may not be the same as before, as the political and speech space is different, and the survey period coincides with the revision of Hong Kong’s election system by the Chinese National People’s Congress, which reflects the public’s dissatisfaction with the development of democracy.
Democratic Thought co-convener (research) Poon Hok-chi said that 30% of the respondents expressed their intention to emigrate, which is an increase compared to previous surveys, but he thinks it is far from the number of real emigrants (Voice of America / Tang Hui Yun)
Democratic Thought Poll 32.7% intend to emigrate overseas
The think tank “Democratic Thought”, of which Hong Kong Executive Council member Ronald Tong is the convenor, announced last Monday (March 22) its semi-annual “One Country, Two Systems Index” opinion survey, which commissions the Asia Pacific Research Institute of the Chinese University of Hong Kong to conduct a survey on the number of immigrants who intend to emigrate between December 22 last year and January 13 this year. Between December 22 last year and January 13 this year, 1,002 Hong Kong people were interviewed by telephone survey. 32.7% of the respondents said they intended to emigrate overseas, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous survey in June 2020. 61.1% of the respondents said they did not intend to emigrate overseas, also down 1.4 percentage points from the previous survey.
In response to a question from the Voice of America, the co-convenor (research) of the One Country Two Systems Index, Poon Hok-chi, said that 30% of the respondents said they intended to emigrate, which is an increase compared to previous surveys, but he believes it is far from the number of real emigrants.
Pan Xuezhi said: “30% (intend to immigrate) this number is not much? Is more than before, but in the end is not considered a lot of it, I can say that this number is often far from the people who really left, even if we saw last year the net migration is close to 50,000, 49,000, far less than 30% or even 10% (population) are not the number, so the number of more, but how many people really left it, that is, there must not be so much as 30%. “
The survey shows that the intention to immigrate the respondents to the middle-aged people over 40 years old, the reporter asked whether it reflects the intention of the middle class to immigrate the majority of people? Pan Xuezhi responded that there is no way to judge whether middle-aged people are middle-class people.
Pan Xuezhi said: “As to whether middle-aged people are equal to the middle class, there is no way to judge, but why this time will be the middle-aged (intend to immigrate) more it, probably because they have more considerations, the burden on the family, so their judgment of the status quo, may be more time to reflect it, compared to the young people we see that immigration figures, first experienced a big rise, and then In contrast, we see that the young people’s immigration figures, first experienced a big rise, and then to now another big drop, so the impulse of young people will reflect faster, as just Ronny (Tang Jiahua) mentioned, the study of political judgment is very changeable.”
The convener of democratic thinking, Tang Jiahua, said that in recent years, many people in the pro-establishment camp are dissatisfied with the political environment in Hong Kong, and their desire to emigrate has indeed increased, but he believes that people in the pro-establishment camp may be interested in emigrating to mainland China (Voice of America / Tang Hui Yun)
Tang Jiahua said the pro-establishment faction may intend to emigrate to mainland China
The convener of democratic thinking, Tang Jiahua said, compared to the 1980s immigration wave, Hong Kong in recent years the number of people who really immigrated overseas is still not enough at that time more than 60,000 immigrants per year, he also said that the people who can really immigrate must have sufficient economic conditions, so the successful immigrants to the middle class and middle-aged people, he also confessed that in recent years, many people from the pro-establishment camp are dissatisfied with the political environment in Hong Kong, their desire to immigrate The desire to emigrate has indeed increased.
Tang said: “In the past, especially the year before last, many people in the pro-establishment camp are very dissatisfied with the situation in Hong Kong, they feel that Hong Kong is unstable, Hong Kong is ‘messed up’, so their desire to emigrate is high. Not surprisingly, they want to immigrate not as they want to go to the United States or the United Kingdom, they may be immigrants back to the mainland may also be, or the Greater Bay Area may also be, so we all have to understand from this perspective, the immigrants spoken of in the pro-establishment camp, may be with your own mind in the type of immigrants are different.”
The survey of democratic thinking shows that respondents who would consider going to the Greater Bay Area fell back from the last survey, the latest figure only 8.2% of respondents said they would consider going to the Greater Bay Area to live or develop, down 3.7 percentage points from 11.9% in the last survey, while 67.8% of respondents who would not consider going to the Greater Bay Area, that is, nearly 60% of respondents would not consider going to the Greater Bay Area to live or develop, similar to the This is similar to the last survey.