The last month has seen a new wave of organized nationalism by the Chinese authorities. The earliest indication of this wave was Xi Jinping‘s statement that “China can already look at the world on an even keel” at the “two sessions” of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in Beijing in early March. This was followed by a “War Wolf diplomacy” campaign by Chinese diplomats, including Yang Jiechi, during high-level U.S.-China diplomatic talks in Alaska, and a massive propaganda campaign by the official Chinese media in the first instance; and a rare move by China to impose counter-sanctions on EU officials in Xinjiang after the EU joined the sanctions against them. The latest development in this wave of nationalism is the nationwide campaign to boycott major Western companies such as Nike around the issue of cotton in Xinjiang. All indications are that this is a premeditated and organized nationalist mobilization, led by the Chinese Communist authorities behind the scenes. The question worth analyzing is: Why is such a large-scale, all-round nationalist mobilization being launched now? I believe there are several motives.
The first is related to the centennial of the CCP’s founding. One of the priorities of Xi Jinping’s administration is to re-establish the Party’s full control over the entire country and society, and to restore and ensure the leadership authority of the CCP. This year’s centennial of the Party’s founding is an opportunity that the CCP will not miss. And the CCP has long built its legitimacy on economic development and national strength. Now that economic development is fraught with crisis, the only thing left to mobilize popular support is a narrative that the CCP can lead China to greatness, and nationalist mobilization helps consolidate the legitimacy of the CCP’s one-party dictatorship.
Secondly, it has to do with Xi Jinping himself. As we all know, Xi Jinping is determined to win a second term in the 20th CPC Congress next year, but there are also many murmurs within the party. Opposition to Xi’s re-election, though not publicly voiced, is still a hidden danger to Xi Jinping. At this point, if the CCP is the target of a global siege, Xi can not only ask the entire party to put aside its differences and unite to fight the siege, but also further convince different factions within the party to endorse the need for him to rule permanently by projecting an image of his own hard-line stance.
The third motive is long-term planning. With globalization hit by the Epidemic and the globalization dividend of China’s economic development exhausted, China’s prospects of relying on its trade relations with the world to drive economic growth are diminishing, which is the fundamental reason why the authorities are proposing an “internal cycle”. China does not necessarily want to return to a closed-door state, but it is a challenge that the Communist Party must face in order to be forced back to “self-reliance”. The nationalist mobilization can dilute the focus of economic difficulties with political nationalist enthusiasm, which can also be considered as a kind of rainy day.
The fourth motivation is economic. With the introduction of the “internal circulation” policy, how to foster and strengthen China’s local brands is something the CCP must consider in the face of the economic crisis. The massive boycott of Western brands is an opportunity to strengthen the local economy. It is not hard to predict that we will see a strong official campaign for “using domestic products”.
The last possible motive has to do with the Taiwan issue. For both the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping himself, solving the Taiwan issue is a matter of their ruling base and a priority for them in the next decade. Once the Taiwan issue is to be resolved by force, nationalist mobilization is essential. This wave of nationalist mobilization can be seen as a test of the strength of the nationalist resources that can be mobilized within Chinese society to begin an assessment for the future resolution of the Taiwan issue.
The traces of government manipulation behind this new wave of nationalist mobilization are too obvious, and the wave after wave of mobilization cannot be explained by a single event. Xi Jinping and the CCP clearly have complex and multi-factorial political calculations for such an operation, only whether such a wishful thinking will succeed actually remains to be seen.
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