[Key Market Review
Spot Gold this week is slightly weak, the overall trend is oscillating downward trend, Thursday night had a sharp rebound to 1745.32, but soon gave back gains, there is a further downward trend of 1720 mark. Spot silver was also on a downward trend this week, falling to 24.38 on Thursday night, then recovered and was consolidating on Friday.
10-year U.S. bond yields this week was a downward trend, before Wednesday, the 10-year U.S. bond yields all the way down to 1.58% near, then began to oscillate upward, has now rebounded to 1.67% above, but still has not recovered all of this week’s losses.
International oil prices have been shaky this week, moving all the way down before Wednesday, with U.S. oil once falling below $58, and Buna oil once approaching the 60 mark. Wednesday because of the Suez Canal blockage briefly boosted oil prices, the U.S. and cloth both oil surged more than 6%, but on Thursday the two oils again plunged, giving back Wednesday’s gains. On Friday, the two oils rebounded again, and as of this writing, both oils were up more than 3% intraday, with U.S. oil rising back above the 60 mark, and bu oil rising back above $63.
The U.S. dollar index rose strongly this week, after a small decline on Monday, from Tuesday began a unilateral upward trend, up to 92.93, followed by a small retracement; the euro against the U.S. dollar trend is the opposite of the U.S. index, rose to a high of 1.1946 on Monday, then all the way down, down to a low of 1.1761; the pound against the dollar as a whole fell first and then rose, fell to a low of 1.3670 on Thursday, and finally began to It finally began to rise, approaching the 1.38 mark.
Bitcoin’s week of shocks to the downside was only briefly boosted by news that tesla would allow payments in bitcoin, which narrowly missed the $50,000 mark on Thursday before recovering slightly and now hovers above $52,000.
[Weekly Events].
- Biden Holds First Presidential Press Conference, Big Announcements Next Week
The Biden Administration has a lot of new developments this week. On Tuesday, according to three people familiar with the matter, the U.S. government is considering including up to $3 trillion in various measures in its long-term economic development plan. The plan could be split into two separate programs. The package will be presented to President Joe Biden this week, according to people familiar with the matter.
On Thursday afternoon, the White House announced Thursday that $10 billion will be set aside to expand vaccination access in low-income, rural and minority communities most affected by the outbreak. Much of the funding comes from the recently enacted $1.9 trillion Biden administration bailout package.
Early Friday morning, President Joe Biden held his first presidential press conference since taking office, answering 10 questions about the Epidemic prevention and control, the infrastructure bill, and the immigration crisis, which are of concern to capital markets, especially the infrastructure issue, but no mention of tax increases for now.
Biden said he would announce more details about the infrastructure stimulus (Build Back Better) bill during his trip to Pittsburgh next week.
- Fed Chairman Powell has made several appearances, what are the key points he has talked about?
This week, Federal Reserve officials, including Powell, have made frequent speeches.
On Wednesday night, Fed Chairman Powell attended a hearing of the Senate Banking Committee. Powell stressed that, first of all, the financial support of Congress is the core of the economic recovery, the rise in bond yields reflects the improved economic outlook, and economic growth should be very strong in 2021. Powell expects prices to face upward pressure in the near future, but the pressure is temporary. He believes Inflation will not be too high, but the Fed has the tools to address the issue and steer it back to 2%.
In an interview with NPR on Thursday evening, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave his views on the current U.S. economy and Fed policy. In a rare hawkishness, Powell said that the Fed will reduce bond purchases as the economic recovery and goals make substantial progress.
In addition, on Monday local Time, Fed Chairman Powell and other central bankers attended a video conference at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Powell reiterated the Fed’s “slow” stance on advancing digital currency at the meeting, saying the Fed has an obligation to be at the forefront of understanding the technical challenges and the benefits of figuring out the costs of advancing the digital dollar, but that the Fed is “not in a hurry to advance this project. .
03, Yellen hearing in response to the five major issues, but also to defend the tax increase
On Wednesday night, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen attended a hearing of the Senate Banking Committee. Yellen talked about five major issues at the hearing, which were banking dividend payments and stock buybacks, IMF reserve increases, the labor market, budget issues, and tax increases. One of the most notable was her defense of tax increases. Yellen stated.
“Right now it’s still a struggle, but once the economy is strong again, President Biden may suggest that we develop a long-term plan to address the long-standing investment shortfall …… necessary to raise money for these areas.”
In addition, on Thursday evening, the U.S. Treasury Department called for a “stricter minimum tax” on the profits of U.S. companies overseas to suppress the incentive for companies to move profits outside the United States.
04、Suez Canal blockage briefly boosts oil prices
The blockage of the Suez Canal has been in the spotlight this week. A 400-meter-long cargo ship ran aground in the Suez Canal on Tuesday local time, causing a traffic jam in both directions and blocking Crude Oil shipments. The major traffic artery, which connects 12 percent of the global cargo trade, has yet to be unblocked, with close to 200 cargo ships blocking both ends of the canal as of Thursday. By Wednesday evening, 10 tankers carrying 13 million barrels of crude oil could be affected by the Suez Canal blockage.
Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority Chairman Osama Rabi announced the same day that the passage of ships in the canal will be temporarily suspended from Thursday until the stranded giant Panamanian cargo ship Chang Chi is finished getting out of the water. Sources said the Suez Canal rescue work will take at least a week.
The blockage of the Suez Canal to briefly boosted oil prices, which rebounded swiftly on Wednesday, with U.S. and BOP oil rising more than 6 percent. However, analysts said that the impact of the news on oil prices is only short-lived.
05, Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities are frequently attacked
On Friday, foreign media sources said that Saudi oil facilities have been under continuous attack since the early morning. In the early hours of Friday, Saudi authorities said that the gasoline distribution station in Jizan province was attacked by Yemeni Houthis and then caught fire. A petroleum products distribution station in the southern Saudi city of Jizan was hit by an artillery shell late in the day, causing a fire in one of the station’s tanks.
The latest news late Friday afternoon said Yemen’s Houthi forces claimed to have used 12 Drones and eight ballistic missiles to attack multiple Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Ras al Tanura, Jizan. 26 afternoon, the Saudi-led multinational coalition issued a notice saying it had successfully intercepted a ballistic missile from Yemeni territory.
- Poor Results of Seven-Year U.S. Bond Auction
The U.S. Treasury conducted another round of U.S. debt auctions this week. The U.S. auctioned $60 billion of two-year Treasuries on Tuesday, with strong subscription demand, a winning interest rate of 0.152% and a bid multiple of 2.54, higher than last month’s 2.44. On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $61 billion of five-year Treasury bonds, the results were not ideal. Local time on Thursday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $62 billion 7-year Treasury bonds, the winning bid rate of 1.3%, higher than the pre-issue transaction rate of 1.275%, the bid multiple of 2.23, the subscription results are not very satisfactory.
Overall, the market expected the results of this tender sale to be worse, but will be better than in February, the final result is basically in line with expectations, but the U.S. bond yields still rose in response, indicating that the market is disappointed with the results.
- A third wave of outbreaks in Europe? EU Raises Vaccine Export Restrictions
On Tuesday night, market news broke that the EU will remove all exemptions from vaccine export restrictions for all countries and that EU export conditions apply to all vaccine manufacturers, not just AstraZeneca. The EU may also restrict vaccine exports to countries with high vaccination rates.
In addition, the EU will block exports of AstraZeneca New Crown vaccine, as well as raw materials, to the U.K. A senior EU official revealed on the 22nd that the EU will review all applications to export AstraZeneca New Crown vaccine to the U.K. very closely until AstraZeneca meets its vaccine delivery obligations to the EU.
It is worth noting that since last week, there are signs of a reignited outbreak in Europe, with embargoes reopened in many places. The German CDC agency has said that the surge in infections in recent weeks is linked to a mutated virus initially found in the UK. Foreign media reports say the epidemic is likely to return to Europe on the eve of Easter (April 4), with the number of new infections set to spike again.
08, the Bank of Canada announced the gradual withdrawal of quantitative easing
On Wednesday, Bank of Canada deputy governor Toni Gravelle (Toni Gravelle) announced at a meeting organized by local financial professionals that the Bank of Canada will gradually suspend (not renew) the remaining liquidity support program in the coming weeks as market conditions improve and there is already sufficient liquidity available for financial institutions.
The Bank of Canada will not evaluate commercial paper, provincial government and corporate bond purchases, and the central bank’s balance sheet is expected to fall to C$475 billion by the end of April. The central bank’s QE cuts will be gradual and measurable, but no specific time for QE cuts to begin was mentioned.
09, Turkey’s central bank was removed from office, the country staged a stock exchange debt three kill
Earlier this week, the Turkish financial markets suffered a triple kill of stocks, currencies and bonds. The cause was the removal of the governor of the Turkish central bank. In order to curb inflation, the Turkish central bank announced on the 18th to raise interest rates by 200 basis points to 19%, far exceeding market expectations. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the removal of Central Bank Governor Naci Agbal on the 20th, Agbal had been in office for less than 5 months, and this is the 3rd time since mid-2019, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan removed the Central Bank Governor, a move that led to another blow to the prestige of the Turkish Central Bank.
On Monday, the Turkish financial market trembled. Not only did the Turkish lira plummet. Turkey’s stock and bond markets also experienced violent fluctuations. Turkey’s Istanbul 100 index triggered a meltdown, and trading in the stock market, the derivatives market’s stock and stock index contracts, and the debt securities stock repo market was suspended; Turkish government bond prices plummeted and yields soared.
10, the bank’s precious metals business and the head of the bat
On March 24, the official website of Pudong Development Bank issued an announcement, in order to prevent market risks and protect the rights and interests of investors, the recent adjustment to the agency of the Shanghai Gold Exchange personal precious metals business, the upper limit of the position down, the margin ratio up, open transactions will be handled through the counter channel, will be no position in the last 3 months no transactions of customers to clear positions, etc.
[Risk Warning].
Data, next week investors focus on the U.S. March non-farm payrolls data: the U.S. March quarterly non-farm payrolls released next Friday is expected to record an increase of 600,000 people, the previous value was an increase of 379,000. The unemployment rate is expected to fall from 6.20% to 6%.
Next Wednesday, the United States will first announce the March ADP employment figures, the market is currently expected to record an increase of 403,000, the previous value of 117,000.
In addition, the United States and major European countries next week will release the manufacturing PMI data for March. The data may be able to reflect the economic recovery of these countries.
Next Wednesday, U.S. President Joe Biden will give a speech on his economic vision. Biden said Friday at his first presidential press conference that he will announce more details about the infrastructure stimulus (Build Back Better) bill during his trip to Pittsburgh next week.
Also on tap for next Wednesday are remarks from several Fed officials: Atlanta Fed President Bostic, a member of the 2021 FOMC ticket, spoke online in a fireside chat with Lockhart, a former president of the local Fed, about “the economy after the new crown epidemic”; and Atlanta Fed President Bostic spoke online about “monetary policy during the epidemic.
Next Thursday, the 15th ministerial meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers takes place and OPEC is expected to maintain its current production levels.
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