The Biden administration’s nominee for the new U.S. Indo-Pacific commander said the military threat of China violating Taiwan by force is urgent and significant, and also closer than most people think. He added that world peace and stability will depend largely on how the United States responds to a rapidly militarizing and aggressive China in the Western Pacific.
Adm. John Aquilino, the current commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, made the statement to a bipartisan group of lawmakers during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on his nomination Tuesday (March 23).
Aquilino said China sees “recovering control” of Taiwan as a top priority. “Otherwise, the revival of the Chinese Communist Party is in danger,” he said.
Aquilino, 58, has served as commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet since May 2018. A few weeks ago, the Biden Administration appointed him as the next commander of U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific region. If the personnel nomination is successfully confirmed by the Senate, Aquilino would replace Adm. Philip Davidson, who currently holds the post but is retiring.
During Tuesday’s hearing, several lawmakers focused on Taiwan as the security priority for the Indo-Pacific region, with the possibility of military conflict across the Taiwan Strait repeatedly raised.
Aquilino said he agreed with the assessment of Gen. H.R. McMaster, who served as the Trump administration’s national security adviser, that China could seize Taiwan by force.
“The most dangerous issue is (China’s) military force against Taiwan,” Aquilino said in his analysis, adding that to effectively counter the threat, the U.S. must demonstrate a strong forward posture and have the ability to respond quickly to crises.
“Those forces combined with the international community, our allies and partners, those nations that share our values, those two things will put us in a very strong position needed to play a deterrent role,” Aquilino said.
Appearing before a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing earlier this month, Lt. Gen. McMaster told lawmakers that Taiwan is now “the most important trigger that could lead to a major war.
Aquilino: U.S.-Taiwan cooperation in “Blue Sea” exercises
Aquilino reiterated that the U.S. will continue to comply with the Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-China communiqués and the six pledges to Taiwan, and to provide arms sales to Taiwan. He mentioned that the Indo-Pacific Command will also continue to conduct military exchanges with Taiwan in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act. This is also the current policy of the U.S. government, he said.
“Under the current policy guidance, we do a lot of things with Taiwan, we do exercises for the Navy, call them ‘Blue Seas,’ and we do have these interactions that contribute to Taiwan’s defense,” Aquilino said.
Aquilino explained at Tuesday’s hearing why Taiwan plays a critical role.
“From a military perspective, Taiwan is in a strategic location that is important because of the potential impact it would have on two-thirds of global trade, which is, of course, a serious issue,” Aquilino further clarified, “and in addition, if there were to be a conflict in Taiwan, the United States’ position as an ally and partner in the region is also in jeopardy. Those two reasons are really the main concerns I think strategically (about why Taiwan is critical).”
Aquilino noted that if the U.S. were to ignore and allow China to violate Taiwan by force, it would undermine U.S. credibility with Asian allies such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.
Aquilino: Threat Closer Than Most People Think
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), a Republican U.S. senator from Arkansas, said Taiwan has vibrant democratic institutions and that the United States values Taiwan as a democratic partner. Cotton asked Aquilino at the hearing about Adm. Davidson’s prediction, made not long ago at the same committee hearing, that China could commit Taiwan by force within the next six years.
“Admiral Davidson previously testified that he believes the People’s Liberation Army could have the capability to effectively invade Taiwan in as soon as six years, or less, do you agree with that view?” Cotton asked.
“Senator, there are a lot of numbers on (the timeline), and I know Admiral Davidson said six years, and you may have to ask him where that assessment came from, and there’s a lot of talk about that number from all walks of Life, from today to 2045,” Aquilino replied.
“My opinion is that this issue is closer to us than most people think, and we have to do something about it, and we have to get deterrence capabilities like the ‘Pacific Deterrence Initiative’ in place in the near future in a hurry.”
Cotton agreed with Aquilino. “It’s not a 2045 or 2030 problem, and I suspect he may not even be a 2026 problem,” Cotton said.
Cotton went on to ask, “From a military planning standpoint, taking climate and maritime conditions into account, what Time of the year is best for the People’s Liberation Army to launch an attack to invade Taiwan? Is it the time of mid-spring?”
“Yes, given the maritime conditions and environment, that would indeed be a better time,” Aquilino replied.
Senator Cotton, who has often argued that Washington should take a tough stance on Beijing when it comes to U.S.-China relations, further used historical events as an example to warn Beijing of possible actions. Cotton said Russia militarily invaded Crimea on Feb. 27, 2014, just four days after that year’s Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia, ended Feb. 23.
“The Beijing Winter Olympics will come to an end on Feb. 23 next year,” Cotton reminded.
Aquilino: forceful violation of Taiwan may be before 2035, or even earlier
Near the end of the hearing, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), a Republican U.S. senator from Missouri, also asked Aquilino about the possible timing of a Chinese forceful invasion of Taiwan.
Hawley asked, “You said earlier that the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is closer than most people think. You and I have discussed this topic at length. Is it reasonable to say that you just said that the threat is closer than we think because such a threat could become a reality before 2035, or some of the dates that others have referred to further down the road? Is that a reasonable statement?”
“Yes, Senator,” Aquilino replied.
“Is it right to say that? We must act now if we hope to prevent this threat from becoming a reality in the future?” Hawley continued to ask.
“Yes, definitely. A robust deployment, and the cooperation of our allies and partners, I think is the primary way to prevent (the threat),” Aquilino responded.
Several lawmakers raised questions about how to boost Taiwan’s defense capabilities. Aquilino stressed the importance of Taiwan developing “asymmetric capabilities,” especially investing in low-cost, high-impact military forces.
“I’m pleased to see some of the capabilities that they’ve procured and I’m pleased to see some of the capabilities that they’ve invested in that can assist their defense in an indigenous way. The example I would give is the harpoon system (harpoon system), and I think that’s very well suited, very rightly so, for that capability.”
Aquilino: Peace, prosperity depend on U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy
Several Indo-Pacific Command officials have recently appeared before congressional hearings to promote the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI). The officials called on the U.S. government to allocate $27.3 billion to the initiative over the next five years, which Aquilino supported.
“Global peace and prosperity depend on our presence in the Indo-Pacific region, and the U.S. Navy remains the most powerful and greatest navy on the planet,” Aquilino said.
However, he also warned that U.S. dominance is currently slipping.
“China is increasing their capabilities and closing the gap,” Aquilino urged the U.S. Congress to provide more resources to the Pentagon, “and we’re seeing aggressive actions coming sooner than we expected, whether it’s on the Indian border, or in Hong Kong, or against the Uighurs. ”
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