The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is getting closer and closer to the change of the top echelon. What kind of team Xi Jinping will build for his “ascension to the throne” is the focus of discussion. Observers believe that Xi Jinping’s readiness for re-election is already obvious, so he certainly does not need to find his own successor, but the training of a successor to the Premier of the State Council is of great importance, the mystery of which can be seen in the revision of the Organic Law of the NPC earlier this month.
The amendment gives the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress the power to appoint and remove vice premiers and state councillors of the State Council, which is believed to open the way for Xi Jinping to adjust the deputy positions of the State Council at any Time.
According to the analysis of the current commentary program Xiaomin Zhixin, Xi Jinping’s hasty passage of this law indicates that he is already considering the personnel layout of the State Council, looking back at the past premiers of the CPC State Council, all of them had the experience of serving as vice premiers. This means that Xi Jinping’s preferred choice for premier is not yet a vice premier of the State Council.
In other words, Hu Chunhua, the current vice premier, who was once one of the CCP’s internal successors, is not Xi’s “favorite.
After the constitutional amendment to abolish term limits, Xi has been racking his brains in the run-up to the 20th National Congress to emphasize and consolidate his personal authority in various ways, including rewriting the history of the CCP.
The program pointed out that Xi Jinping’s criteria for selecting his close friends have always been loyalty first and ability second, and that for him, the third term of full power in the future is more important than the second term, so it is conceivable that he will choose someone he trusts as premier, while Hu Chunhua, as Hu Jintao’s designated successor, is the “abolished prince”. The political threat to Xi is that it is impossible for Xi Jinping not to be wary of.
“The most important reason why Hu Chunhua could still become premier is that Xi Jinping needs a weak premier. Hu Chunhua would naturally be a weak premier, favoring Xi Jinping’s pendulum. But Xi’s greed and sensitivity to power dictates that whoever becomes premier will be a weak premier, and even if Xi’s cronies become premier, it will not change that state of affairs. And it may be easier for Xi to manipulate his cronies than Hu Chunhua.”
He added that although Xi is a self-proclaimed leader, the premier still holds a huge government system, “the relative independence of this system is all but unchangeable, and anyone placed in the position of premier will become very important and influential in a way that no other standing committee can match. How could Xi Jinping arrange someone he could not trust for such an important position? Xi Jinping needs a premier who really works for him, not one he needs to control.”
Xiaomin believes that Xi has already internalized his choice for premier and will appoint him as vice premier around the 20th National Congress and formally appoint him as premier at the following year’s National People’s Congress, “In fact, Xi Jinping already has several fiefdoms in his inner circle that are qualified to be premier with a little excess. Hu Chunhua has no advantage over them. If Hu has a chance to be promoted in the future, the biggest possibility is to succeed Wang Yang as CPPCC chairman, that is, to take up an idle post.”
Free Asia 22 also talked about Li Keqiang’s successor. According to the article, if Xi Jinping is not inclined to choose the next premier from the current vice premier, then Chen Miner, Li Qiang, Li Xi and Li Hongzhong are the four possible candidates to succeed Li Keqiang. Among the four, Li Qiang, who has the most age advantage and both local governing experience, is the most likely. In particular, Li Qiang was personally promoted by Xi Jinping when he was secretary of the CPC Zhejiang Provincial Committee.
The article quotes a comment posted two years ago by a mainland netizen who “scaled the wall” and found it quite convincing: “The reason for arresting Sun Zhengcai was to make the next premier a member of the Xi faction. The reason is that Sun Zhengcai can’t be cold-treated like Hu Chunhua… If Sun Zhengcai is not completely knocked down, it is very difficult to obstruct the path of this person to become the premier, so Sun Zhengcai was killed. Li Keqiang can certainly only be the premier for two terms, the next premier is likely to be Li Qiang, secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee. Shanghai Party Secretary is a springboard, Li Qiang will not take long to enter the State Council ……”
Whether or not he takes over as Premier, this article suggests that Li Qiang and Chen Miner have a very good chance of being promoted to the Standing Committee at the 20th CPC Congress in the future. Meanwhile, another of Xi’s hardcore cronies, Ding Xuexiang, “is almost as likely to be among the Politburo Standing Committee as Xi Jinping is to be re-elected to a third term as general secretary.”
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