A new military report assesses the threats facing the United States, U.S. military capabilities, and the current global operating environment. The report notes that the U.S. military has made progress in a number of important areas, but that it is currently barely meeting the demands of defending vital U.S. national interests, and that its forces are unable to handle two major regional contingencies occurring almost simultaneously.
Conservative Think Tank
The Heritage Foundation’s “U.S. Military Power Index 2021” report, released Tuesday (Nov. 17), also notes that the challenges facing the U.S. continue to grow, with “long-standing allies not what they used to be and the United States increasingly burdened by debt, which limits its ability to maintain a force commensurate with its interests.
The key findings of the report’s assessment are as follows.
Threats to U.S. Interests
In the past year, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and terrorist groups in the Middle East and Afghanistan remained actual or potential threats to U.S. interests.
The report classifies the threat level as “severe,” “high,” or “low. Overall, the threat to U.S. vital interests is “high” (4th level out of 5, just below “severe”).
According to the Heritage Foundation, China is the most comprehensive threat to the U.S. China continues to modernize and expand its military, with a particular focus on its space, cyber, and artificial intelligence capabilities.
According to the report, the PLA continues to expand its sphere of influence and military activities beyond its immediate vicinity and to conduct larger and more comprehensive exercises, including live-fire exercises in the East China Sea near Taiwan (known as the East China Sea) and active air and sea patrols in the South China Sea (known as the South China Sea).
China’s statements regarding Taiwan and its exercise of military capabilities in the air and sea around Taiwan have also become more belligerent.
The report identifies China’s behavior as “aggressive” and its growing capabilities as “formidable.
The report also mentions that Russia remains the main threat to U.S. interests in Europe, and the most pressing threat facing the United States.
The study states: “Moscow remains committed to a massive pro-Russian propaganda campaign in Ukraine and other Eastern European countries, continues to actively support Ukrainian separatist forces, regularly conducts provocative military exercises and training missions, and continues to sell weapons to countries hostile to U.S. interests (e.g., the S-400 air defense missile system to Turkey). It has also increased its investment in military modernization and accumulated significant combat experience, while at the same time continuing to undermine U.S. and Western policies in Syria and Ukraine.”
U.S. Military Power
Measuring U.S. military strength in terms of capabilities and readiness, the report classifies strength as “very strong,” “robust,” or “fair” ( There are five levels: “marginal,” “weak,” and “very weak. The report found that, as things stand, the U.S. military is barely meeting the requirements to protect America’s vital national interests.
The Army, Air Force, and Marine Corps are all rated “fair. The Army Corps is committed to modernizing its military in response to a strong power competition, but its programs are still in the developmental phase and will take several years to complete deployment. As for the Air Force, a shortage of pilots and shortened flight times have reduced the Air Force’s ability to meet wartime needs.
The Navy’s rating is “fair” and tends to be “weak. The technology gap between the Navy and its competitors is narrowing, but Navy ships are aging faster than they are being replaced.
U.S. nuclear capabilities are rated “fair” with a trend toward “strong. However, the report emphasizes that “moving toward robust” means that the United States maintains its commitment to modernize its entire nuclear force, from warheads to platforms to personnel and infrastructure, and allocates the required resources accordingly. Without this commitment, the rating would quickly drop to “weak. While the bipartisan commitment has allowed the United States to continue to make progress on nuclear force modernization and warhead sustainment, these programs remain seriously threatened by potential future fiscal uncertainty.
As of mid-2020, the U.S. Air Force was still in the process of being formed, had very few personnel, and was not evaluated by the Heritage Foundation given its early state.
The overall U.S. military power rating is “fair. Current U.S. military capabilities may be capable of meeting the demands of a single major regional conflict, as well as participating in a variety of presence and engagement activities, but are unlikely to do more, and do not have the capability to handle two major regional contingencies occurring almost simultaneously.
House Armed Services Committee Chief Republican Mac Thornberry said at the report’s briefing that stable and reliable funding should be provided for U.S. military development. “Growing at 3 to 5 percent on an inflationary basis …… that’s what’s needed to defend the country. If there is even less funding, then Congress and the president must be held accountable for the consequences.”
Thomas Spoehr, director of the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Defense Policy Studies, and Dakota Wood, editor of the annual report and a senior defense fellow at the Heritage Foundation, said in a statement: “Most Americans agree- -The first priority of the U.S. government should be to provide for the common defense by fully funding a military capable of successfully confronting and defeating America’s enemies. However, while our adversaries have invested in their forces and taken advantage of rapidly advancing technology over the past two decades, the United States has had to choose between resolving a serious readiness crisis and investing in the modernization of our military to compete in the future. We can no longer settle for one or the other; we must do both.”
The statement added: “We hope to never have to use such force, but history is very clear – when our military is strong, our enemies are less likely to take belligerent action against us or our allies. Investing in a strong military today is paving the way for peace in the years to come.”
The Global Operating Environment
The report also assesses the operational environment by focusing on three regions: Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, where the United States has a vital interest and where there are actors that can challenge U.S. interests. The operating environment is graded as “excellent,” “favorable,” “moderate,” “unfavorable,” and “low. There are five levels of “non-fault”.
The Heritage Foundation believes that overall, the European region remains a stable, mature, and friendly operating environment, and rates the European operating environment as favorable.
The Middle East, a highly unstable region that is a breeding ground for terrorism, is assessed in the report as a “moderate” operating environment.
According to the report, the strategic environment in Asia is extremely broad, and the region includes both long-standing U.S. allies and long-term adversaries. The report argues that Asia remains “favorable” to U.S. interests in terms of alliances, overall political stability, military-related infrastructure, and U.S. military presence.
Overall, the current global operating environment remains “favorable,” suggesting that the United States should be able to project military power wherever it is needed in the world to defend its interests without facing substantial opposition or significant risk.
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