China’s accession to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), with Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines as the backbone and Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand strategically aligned with the United States, gives the impression of a wolf in distress. The 16 countries, representing half of the world’s population, one-third of the world’s GDP, and one-third of the world’s trade, have set the goal of eliminating tariffs, overturning trade barriers, and promoting economic development in the region. If this ambition is realized, it will create the world’s largest free trade zone and make a useful and constructive contribution to the well-being of all mankind. Is the Wolf Warrior Fruit a Good Samaritan? Not necessarily.
War Wolf Posture: The CCP has enemies on all sides.
In the Asia-Pacific region, India was absent from the agreement; in the Pacific, the United States was not involved. In both cases, it is clear that they do not have high hopes for the agreement. It is also true that the WTO, which encompasses almost all the countries of the world, has from time to time been a source of conflict for a number of countries, and it is doubtful how effective such a regional agreement would be. Moreover, China has been to show the wolf posture, with Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand have different degrees of teeth marks, with Vietnam, the Philippines and sometimes conflict; the country is easy to change, character is difficult to change. If China does not put down its butcher’s knife and become a Buddha, how much sincerity can there be in promoting economic and trade development peacefully?
Unlike Vietnam and the Philippines, Australia has no territorial dispute with China, except that the outbreak of the Wuhan virus required the WHO to investigate its origin. With the implementation of Hong Kong’s version of the National Security Law, and with English-speaking countries such as the UK, US and Canada solidifying Hong Kong people’s demand for freedom, we have been able to offer substantial residency relief. In all of these cases, China has been angry and aggressive, imposing heavy taxes on everything from barley to wine to lobster imported from Australia. It goes without saying how sincere a totalitarian state, all dominated by politics, can be in peacefully promoting free trade. Perhaps so, although India was invited to join the agreement, it did not join the agreement despite the border conflict with China.
Undoubtedly, accession to the agreement is a reversal of China’s wolfish stance of having enemies on all sides. In addition to its economic vassals such as Ethiopia, Cambodia, Laos, and its Russian big brother, who has the same nose, China is tense with the United States, Australia, and India, and is hostile to almost all Western countries that believe in freedom and democracy, and is even more aggressive toward Taiwan. Xi Jinping has not been the first to be overbearing and brutal, and his rise to power in 2012 has only intensified his rhetoric. What does China rely on?
In 1972, Nixon opened the door to China to promote reform and opening up, in the 1980s President Reagan gave trade most-favored-nation treatment, thus opening the door to the U.S. market, and Clinton went on to support accession to the WTO in 2001, and since then the economy has been running at full throttle, taking the lead from Britain, Germany, and Japan and becoming the second largest economy after the U.S. In 2002, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao came to power with the basic policy of “peaceful rise” to counterbalance the U.S. in the international arena. By 2002, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao came to power, that is, “peaceful rise” as the basic national policy, to counterbalance the U.S.-led Western camp in the international arena.
When the financial tsunami broke out in the United States in 2008, Wang Qishan could not resist teaching Paulson, former chairman of Goldman Sachs and former U.S. Treasury Secretary, a lesson: “We were your students in the past, but today we can teach you how to deal with the financial crisis. At the same time, in order to stabilize the domestic economy, the country took a giant step forward and retreated, boosting super central enterprises and expanding high-speed rail-like infrastructure projects. By the time Xi Jinping took office, the “peaceful rise” was a variation on the century-old Chinese dream of national rejuvenation.
When Wuhan pneumonia broke out, Western countries fell and their economies bottomed out, China was not only immune, but its exports of anti-epidemic materials increased dramatically and its economy rebounded quickly. In the face of this situation, what is so surprising about Xi Jinping’s ambition to fully expand his “four confidence” in road, theory, system and culture? But as Kishore Mahbubani, Singapore’s nationalist, says, is China winning?
Totalitarian rule can easily go off the rails.
Wait a minute. With the advancement of the state and the retreat of the people, coupled with a high degree of centralization, economic growth has gone from being guaranteed at 10, 8, or 6 percent to seemingly proud of its peers, but now it is simply not guaranteed at all. This shows that those in power are well aware that solid economic growth is not sustainable. Now that vaccines are competing with each other, the epidemic can be controlled. Once the demand for antiepidemic supplies from overseas slows down, how can the people’s hearts and minds be sustained if the internal and external economic double cycle does not come?
Desperate and aggressive behavior has always been the totalitarian’s weapon of choice to consolidate power. The more easily a man can go off the rails when there is no check and balance for opposing voices, the more likely he is to go off the rails. If the White House happens to have a new sleepy master, and the war wolf thinks he can take advantage of the situation, the risk of an eventual war between China and the United States will be greatly increased. The ugly thing is not working, and that is to hope.
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