Chen Kuide, editor-in-chief of Overview China
Xi Jinping, of course, said this to tell Chinese people that China wants to surpass the United States to become the dominant power in the world, and even its model will become the dominant model. But on the issue of total economic output, we know that China’s total economic output during the Qianlong period was the highest in the world, does this mean that China during the Qianlong period was the number one power and the number one wealthy country in the world? It is possible that China’s economic output will exceed that of the United States in ten years, but even so, will China become the world’s top power and the richest country by then?
It is possible that China’s per capita income is only 68th in the world, which is 1/6 of that of the U.S. In ten years, it will only be in the 50th percentile at most, and basically still at that level. It is in the middle of the world. And this situation is still China’s Deng Xiaoping style of hiding its light, China in about 30 or 40 years to take advantage of the U.S. dominated world order, low labor prices, low human rights to achieve economic dividends, and of course there are many. This so-called “model” was acquired under some of these conditions. But since Xi Jinping came to power, the course has changed considerably, and with the aging of China’s population, China as a remaining communist state is now increasingly resisted, watched, and besieged by the developed world and the mainstream international community. So, whether it will be able to surpass the United States in total in ten years is certainly possible, but not conclusive or certain. It is still an open question, and it is difficult to make a guarantee.
Therefore, Xi Jinping’s so-called great change of the century and the great Chinese dream of national rejuvenation may have both positive and negative possibilities. The unprecedented changes in the past hundred years could be progress or regression. In fact, it is well known that Mr. Xi Jinping is currently taking a big step backward to the Mao era. What does that look like? Think back to the Mao era 60 years ago, a century ago, when tens of millions of Chinese peasants were artificially starved alive without being able to make their voices heard. At that Time, Chinese newspapers and magazines told the Chinese people that it was the time of the Great Leap Forward, that the east wind was overwhelming the west wind, that the West was in deep water, that the enemy was rotting day by day, and we were getting better day by day, and that there was singing and dancing everywhere. As a result, the economy was on the verge of collapse after the Cultural Revolution. So the direction of development is not completely linear progress. Now there is an inflection point, a change of direction, which is a rather important manifestation of this uncertainty.