After U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Davidson suggested that the timeline for China’s invasion of Taiwan could be within the next six years, members of Congress from both parties expressed concern about Taiwan’s security in quick succession this week. 20 federal House members issued a joint letter on the eve of high-level U.S.-China talks in Alaska, asking President Biden and the lead negotiator to call for enhanced support for Taiwan, and a number of lawmakers sought ways to increase deterrence against China at a hearing. In the hearing, a member of the House of Representatives said he would introduce a new bill to increase the flexibility of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
In a joint letter to Biden, Sullivan and Blinken on Wednesday (March 17), 20 Republican House members urged the U.S. side to “reaffirm America’s strong commitment to supporting Taiwan from the threat posed by the Communist Party of China” in talks with China before Secretary of State Blinken and National Security Advisor Sullivan met with Chinese diplomats Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi in Anchorage, Alaska. “
Joint Letter Calls for Confirmation of Commitment to Taiwan
The letter was initiated by Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) and supported by two Congressional Taiwan Link co-chairs, Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL), Steve Chabot (R-IL) and 19 other Republicans. (R-Fla.), Steve Chabot (R-OH) and 19 other Republican colleagues signed a letter stating that as China continues to increase its military posture and threat in the Indo-Pacific region, it is critical that the United States stand up to the Chinese Communist Party and demonstrate that it will defend and advance global democracy. “It is important that you confront China’s attempts to dismantle democracy and reaffirm that U.S. support for Taiwan is non-negotiable.”
On Friday, several lawmakers also expressed concern about China’s coercion and threats against Taiwan during a House Foreign Affairs Committee Asia-Pacific Subcommittee hearing on U.S. Indo-Pacific policy.
Danger of Strategic Ambiguity
Rep. Schabert, the subcommittee’s senior Republican, said the U.S. strategic ambiguity about Taiwan and China is “absurd and dangerous” and that the U.S. should make it clear and transparent that the U.S. will stand with Taiwan if China attacks it, “which is the best way to prevent China from misjudging and starting a war.”
Schabert asked Randall Schriver, former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, who testified at the hearing, about Indo-Pacific Commander Davidson’s assessment that China could attack Taiwan within six years and the U.S. and Taiwan’s ability to prepare for war.
Schriver said the risk to Taiwan is increasing because of China’s growing investment in improving its combat capabilities in the Taiwan Strait, but that both the United States and Taiwan have much to do to enhance Taiwan’s asymmetric defense, and that Taiwan’s Overall Defense Concept (ODC) is the right approach, including increased investment in intelligence and search capabilities, unmanned systems and coastal defense. Unmanned systems and coastal defense.
He said he is not sure the timeline is as precise as Davidson’s six years, but he believes that Indo-Pacific Command is thinking realistically about possible changes in the Taiwan Strait and how the U.S. will respond, and reminds people that there must be a sense of urgency on this issue because even if they are on the right path, they could be run over if they are not moving fast enough.
Tactics should be clear
Schafer also expressed his preference for a model of “strategic clarity and tactical ambiguity” on the issue of strategic ambiguity, saying that the United States should be able to state explicitly that it is in its interest for Taiwan to continue to survive as a democratic partner in its current or better form, while it is not in its interest for Taiwan to fall under the authoritarian rule of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing, but that the United States But the United States should remain ambiguous on the tactical question of what the response might be, because the U.S. response would depend entirely on the situation, and therefore he believes that a “clear strategy, ambiguous tactics” strategy would maintain the U.S. advantage.
Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), who only recently co-sponsored legislation with Rep. Tifani to repeal the U.S. one-China Policy and recognize Taiwan, said he believes the U.S. must be tougher on China and that the U.S. should recognize Taiwan and “treat them as the real China,” which may be too provocative for some. Perhaps this may be too provocative for some, but the U.S. must get closer to Taiwan in a cross-party way.
New bill proposed to increase arms sales flexibility
Perry revealed at the hearing that he intends to introduce a new bill in the near future to increase deterrence against China’s incursions into Taiwan, legislation called the “Taiwan plus Act” that would follow the U.S. military sales treatment of NATO plus five. The legislation, called the Taiwan Plus Act, would increase the dollar value of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, and reduce the current threshold of 30 days’ notice to Congress before the president can announce an arms sale to Taiwan to 15 days. He said there are currently only five countries other than NATO that enjoy such treatment, and those are Australia, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand and Israel.
Perry asked Scherfig if he supported what the bill was trying to accomplish. How would China react to it? Scherfig replied that he would support anything that would give the administration more flexibility, provide more security assistance and shorten the Time frame, and hoped that Perry’s bill would pass through the legislative process.
As for China’s reaction, he said that any U.S. approach to strengthening security ties with Taiwan must be met with a negative reaction from Chinese analysts and the PLA, but that is not a criterion for U.S. policy decisions, and the U.S. cannot refrain from doing so just because China doesn’t like it; in fact, that is rather a reason why the U.S. should do so.
Also presenting expert opinions as a witness at the hearing was Richard Haas, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, who last year stirred up debate in U.S. political and academic circles by advocating a change in U.S. policy on strategic ambiguity in the Taiwan Strait.
Enhancing strategic capabilities to match strategic ambiguity
Haas also said that the U.S. should strengthen its partnership with regional allies and the Quadripartite Dialogue (Quad) to enhance its deterrence against China, especially China’s push against Taiwan. He does believe that the U.S. must change its policy of strategic ambiguity to one of strategic clarity, while strengthening its strategic capabilities to match this new policy.
Also, Subcommittee Chairman Ami Bera said that China’s oppression of Taiwan is a topic of great concern to the committee, and he was pleased that Japan raised concerns about security in the Taiwan Strait during the U.S.-Japan 2+2 talks. He asked Nadege Rolland, senior political-security affairs fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, what the United States should do to strengthen Taiwan’s security defenses.
Rolland said that in addition to militarily strengthening the deterrence capabilities of the U.S. and its Asian allies, the U.S. and its allies could provide Taiwan with protection capabilities in cyberspace and strengthen Taiwan’s international diplomatic space, as Taiwan also faces the threat of China’s enormous influence activities, and the U.S. could work not only with its Asian allies but also with European countries to support Taiwan’s participation in international organizations. She believes all of these approaches could help deter further Chinese persecution of Taiwan.
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