The spread of African swine fever in China is becoming increasingly difficult to control as new variants of the virus emerge. Scientists say the new virus variants are more easily spread than the current prevalent strain, which could cause longer disruptions to China’s pork supply.
The Financial Times reported on March 17 that the African swine fever outbreak in China is becoming increasingly difficult to control, with the emergence of a new strain fueling market concerns and a sharp rise in hog futures and piglet prices.
Scientists say the new virus variant is more transmissible than the current strain, and in response, commodity traders are scrambling to get the word out. In addition, the new variant of the virus could cause longer disruptions to pork supplies in China.
African swine fever has already hit pork production in China since it began spreading in 2018. After China’s pork supplies fell to a 20-year low in 2020, Beijing predicted a steady rebound this year, but analysts say a new strain of the virus could deflate those predictions.
China has been conducting clinical trials on a vaccine since last year, but has yet to find a treatment or cure for African swine fever.
The widespread use of unapproved vaccines by pig farmers is partly to blame for the mutation of the virus to create a new strain, said Wayne Johnson, a senior consultant with Enable AgTech Consulting in Beijing.
Industry watchers are also concerned that the use of an illegal African swine fever vaccine may have led to accelerated mutation of the virus. In January, an expert at Chinese pork producer New Hope Liuhe said a “definitely artificial” strain had been found in more than 1,000 pigs at the company’s farm, Reuters reported.
Zhu Steansen said the mutation “would have happened anyway, but the lack of information has been very frustrating,” adding that “there are signs that African swine fever is changing from a fatal disease to a chronic one.”
Zhu Steansen said it will take at least two years for China’s hog stockpile to return to the level it was before African swine fever developed into an endemic disease in 2018.
Justin Sherrard, an analyst at investment bank Rabobank, cut his forecast for China’s pork production growth this year to 8% to 10%, compared with a previous forecast of 10% to 15%, due to the emergence of a new variant of the swine fever virus.
Piglet prices have been a good predictor of future wholesale pork prices since African swine fever was introduced into China. Piglet prices have risen more than 15% to 93.2 yuan ($14.30) per kilogram since concerns about a variant strain of African swine fever virus intensified last December. That is significantly higher than the average of 20 yuan per kilogram in the months before the outbreak, but lower than the record of more than 100 yuan per kilogram set last year.
The price of hog futures, which are traded in Dalian, also rose sharply. Hog futures, launched in January, allow investors to bet on the direction of hog prices.
China’s wholesale pork prices have fallen 8 percent so far this year to 47.46 yuan per kilogram, but analysts attribute this to a temporary increase in supply as farmers slaughter more pigs out of concern over a new strain of the virus.
A study published last month by China’s Harbin Veterinary Research Institute said several new strains of African swine fever virus have been identified. These variants cause pigs to develop milder symptoms that are more difficult to diagnose, allowing the disease to spread undetected for longer.
Recent Comments