U.S. official’s tough language on eve of U.S.-China dialogue increases likelihood of escalating confrontation

Two days before top U.S. and Chinese officials are scheduled to meet in Alaska this week, the U.S. and Japan issued a joint statement and the State Department updated its sanctions list on Hong Kong, demonstrating a tough stance against the Chinese Communist Party. In a few years, when the PLA is ready, China will no longer tolerate the U.S. and the possibility of military conflict will increase, according to Jin Canrong, the Communist Party’s “national teacher.

Blinken and White House national security adviser Sullivan will meet Thursday (18) with Yang Jiechi, director of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China’s Foreign Affairs Working Committee, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, the first high-level U.S.-China meeting since the Biden administration took office. On the eve of the meeting, senior U.S. officials continue to demonstrate a tough stance toward China. On Tuesday (March 16), the U.S. and Japanese defense and foreign ministers issued a joint statement in Tokyo, Japan, expressing “grave concern” about the growing power claims of the Chinese Communist Party. Following a “two plus two” meeting between Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimichi Motegi and Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi, the two countries issued a joint statement condemning the illegal claims and actions of the Chinese Communist Party in the waters of the South China Sea and expressing deep concern over recent changes to the Maritime Police Law that allow maritime surveillance vessels to fire around disputed islands and reefs in the East China Sea.

On Wednesday (17), the State Department updated its report on the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, in which Secretary of State Blinken named 24 Hong Kong and Chinese officials for infringing on Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy under the Sino-British Joint Declaration and the Basic Law. Secretary of State John Blinken reiterates that foreign financial institutions will face sanctions if they knowingly engage in significant transactions with the individuals in question.

Secretary of State John Blinken names 24 Hong Kong and Chinese officials in the State Department’s updated report on the Hong Kong Self-Government Act, accusing them of infringing on Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy under the Sino-British Joint Declaration and the Basic Law.

Current U.S.-China relations are like the eve of the Sino-Soviet breakup

In response, Wu Qiang, a former lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Tsinghua University who is concerned about the development of U.S.-China relations, said in an interview with this station on Wednesday (17) that China is currently in a more passive position in the international situation: “On the one hand, she is in an unprecedented diplomatic isolation and is eager to have a meeting with the U.S. Secretary of State (Blinken) and Security Adviser (Sullivan), and I believe the result is very much like Kosygin, chairman of the Soviet Council of Ministers in 1969, stopped by Beijing Capital Airport on his way back to Moscow after attending a memorial service for Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam to meet with Zhou Enlai.”

In 1969, there were two border clashes between China and the Soviet Union, the most tense Time in Sino-Soviet relations. The meeting of top Chinese and Soviet officials that year confirmed that relations between the two countries had reached an irreversible point, and Wu Qiang believes that the meeting of top Chinese and American officials in the United States has similarities to the top-level Sino-Soviet meeting back then. That meeting was actually a confirmation that the differences between the two sides were irreparable, and although the atmosphere of the conversation was relaxed, it was profound and was the beginning of China’s turning to the United States,” he said. Then this meeting, I believe, has a similar effect in that China and the United States will recognize that their differences are quite deep and comprehensive and will therefore turn to long-term competition, and that competition will turn to the next conflict.”

Jin Canrong:The possibility of a conflict between the U.S. and China this year is not great

Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the official Chinese Communist Party media Global Times, said in the newspaper’s editorial on Wednesday that the U.S. has regarded the Chinese Communist Party as its main strategic threat and made containing it the focus of its global diplomatic and military arrangements, which means global contraction and sudden advance in the Asia-Pacific region to focus on the Chinese Communist Party.

How likely is it that a conflict will break out in the Taiwan Strait?

In an interview with official media, Jin Canrong, vice dean of the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China, who is known as the “national teacher” of the Chinese Communist Party, speculated on the possibility of a conflict between the United States and China. He said that the next few years are more dangerous: “The possibility of this conflict becoming a reality, within this year, 2021 is not very likely to become a reality, the first is still more dependent on political means, to win the hearts and minds of Taiwan, but also to win the understanding of our mainland people, and the understanding of the international community, politically I think this side is still in patience, of course, the military in preparation, which is not contradictory. This is not contradictory, but if the mainland, for example, this patience, did not win a positive return, then in a few years, the danger will be greater than now, because in a few years, I think we are better prepared militarily.”

The U.S.-China relationship is beyond repair

Facing the complex and changing U.S.-China relations, Chinese Writer Cai Shenkun said in an interview with the station that currently, the U.S. and China are facing many problems: “On the one hand, it is certainly incorrect to say that it was caused by the previous U.S. administration, that is, under Trump. Now after Biden came to power, he has the intention to restore the mutual unspoken relationship between China and the U.S. as it was in the past, and now it is also very difficult. We have understood from Kissinger’s last speech on the U.S.-China relationship that the two countries are powerless to return.”

The relationship between the U.S. and China has deteriorated to the point of “no return,” and that is not the worst moment, according to Wu Qiang, who believes that a conflict between the U.S. and China is in the making. He said, “The pattern of confrontation around China’s new Cold War Indo-Pacific region is taking shape and is likely to escalate in the future, which could escalate into an Asian version of NATO. Under this scenario, Taiwan is actually on the front lines of the encounter between the two camps, and the Taiwan issue is bound to become a focal point in U.S.-China relations during the four-year tenure of the Biden Administration and around the ’20th Congress’ of the Communist Party of China.”

Cross-strait conflict or not depends on the United States

Writer Cai Shenkun believes that the international status of China and the United States is undergoing subtle changes, although the United States maintains a strong power, but the Chinese government controls domestic resources: “China is playing a huge role or influence in the world, both militarily and in terms of military influence, and in the future, if the U.S. government does not form an international front to check and balance China then China’s rise is unstoppable and may take less than 10 years.”

According to Cai Shenkun, the future of large-scale armed conflict across the Taiwan Strait depends on the relationship between China and the United States and military power. Therefore, the future of cross-strait relations is determined by the direction of U.S.-China relations.