Beijing Time 20:30, known as the “scary data” of the United States in February, the monthly retail sales rate of -3%, much lower than the previous value of 5.3%, a new low since April last year.
U.S. retail sales fell in February, mainly because of the severe winter weather that affected most of the United States at the time, resulting in a temporary decline in demand. Spending may also have been curbed because the IRS (Internal Revenue Service) tax filing window was two weeks later than usual, delaying tax refunds. An IRS report released last week showed that tax refunds were down 32 percent year-over-year.
Perhaps because of early expectations, Gold was relatively quiet after the data was released. Spot gold first briefly moved slightly higher by more than $3 to $1,736.04 before quickly falling back to as low as around $1,730. Spot silver was lower in the short term, falling below $26, down 0.83% during the day; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was slightly higher, now at 1.6022%.
February is usually a slow month for retail sales, as stores prepare for the spring selling season, including Easter. The cold weather in February also wreaked havoc on large swaths of the U.S., which may have also weighed on last month’s sales, said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James Financial.
February is a month to restart the economy, but it was also a very cold month in much of the U.S., so it was a tough retail sales report, said Adam Button, an analyst at financial website Forexlive. It is thought that the market will forgive the poor performance of the report, as it was affected by the weather and the upcoming stimulus measures.
Economists expect retail spending to get a boost in the coming months as the $1.9 trillion plan signed last week will allocate additional fiscal stimulus and employment levels rise as businesses open up more fully and the new crown pneumonia vaccination will lead to a corresponding reduction in cases.
Michel Meyer, chief economist at Bank of America, believes that after the weakness at the end of February, there will be a “decisive recovery in spending” in March, so the “horrible data” recorded in February is also temporary, given the strong data at the beginning of March In view of the strong data in early March, the new round of checks and tax refund deferral policy can be issued before the end of March, the really beautiful “horrible data” will appear next month.
Meanwhile, newly reported coronavirus cases in the U.S. are hovering near their lowest level since early October last year, and Biden has instructed states to make all U.S. adults eligible to register for the vaccine by May 1.
Together, these factors could help drive consumer spending in the service sector, such as leisure and hospitality, in the coming months, an area that has been lagging behind the service sector in terms of consumer spending and job growth.
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