Former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a Conservative, said March 12 at the annual “Ottawa Security Conference: Security and Defence” organized by the Canadian Defence Association Institute Conference (CDA Institut) that the Western view that China has no worldwide ambitions and will The conventional wisdom that China has no global ambitions and will use its economic power at Home is wrong. He suggested that the West needs to be prepared for a stronger, more aggressive China in a world where the United States may be less dominant on the international stage.
Harper suggests that the world is now once again in a “cold war between two superpowers,” but this Time the protagonists are not the United States and the Soviet Union, but China and the United States. Meanwhile, Russia has been reduced to a “disruptor” like Iran, while a “middle power” like Canada can still play a role, but cannot shape the outcome on its own.
Harper said, “Yes, a middle power like Canada can still play a role …… but I don’t think we should think that way – especially for a country like ours, where we can set the course completely independently of the two giants (China and the U.S.). China and the U.S.) to set the course.” The end of World War II was followed by a decades-long Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union and their allies. And in his view of Russia, the Soviet Union’s biggest successor, Harper commented that while Russia remains “strategically important,” the country’s relatively small economic size today prevents it from being on the same level as China and the United States, or even being “the world’s biggest disruptor “, like rogue states like Iran and North Korea, “a hacker, a saboteur, a mercenary,” he said.
Harper said that while the United States remains the “preeminent power” in the world today, he believes that “the day has passed when the United States was the dominant or overwhelming force. “China is now a competitor of the United States in a range of areas: economic, security and, frankly, (governmental) systems,” he said, adding that the blocs around each superpower are not as well defined as they were when the United States and the Soviet Union were the major global competitors, but rather, “the competition is while intense and growing, also involves a degree of interdependence that was not present in the (Cold War) between the Soviet Union and the United States.”
According to Harper, the United States has undergone a “dramatic change” from its traditional leadership role in the past, due in part to the isolationist policies of former President Trump, but more like “a trend in American politics. He continued, saying that whether under Trump’s leadership or as it looks like it will continue under Biden, the U.S. is regressing (in international affairs), which is a major disruption to the international order. He said, “There’s been a sea change (in the international arena), particularly since I left office, and the U.S. has really stepped back from a lot of its traditional leadership roles.” He added that “China is now a competitor to the United States in a range of areas.”
Harper said, “For years, so-called China experts have interpreted China in a way that is just plain wrong. China is not an isolated and passive country, but a great power with hegemonic ambitions.” Harper, who stepped down as prime minister of Canada in 2015, spoke of how when he was in power, Beijing was more modest about its ambitions, but he believes those ambitions have always been there. “All the pillars of China’s aggressiveness are in place and clear for anyone to see,” Harper said. He said, “What’s different about President Xi is that he’s become more visibly outspoken about China’s ambitions.”
Harper pointed out that if China were to reach a standard of living equal to that of developed Western countries, it would likely pose a greater challenge. “It would mean that China would be three times the size (of the economy) in absolute terms …… of the (economic) power of the United States in its heyday,” Harper said, “and that’s not something to be taken lightly by any means.” He added that some other countries, such as India, are trying to leapfrog the barriers in the superpower race by strengthening economic ties with China while protecting themselves from hegemonic ambitions by boosting security ties with the United States. At the same time, while “middle powers” like Canada are part of the (global) competition, their lack of economic and security clout prevents them from shaping the outcome on their own.
Harper said one challenge for Canada is to prevent Chinese state-owned companies from taking control of Canadian resource sectors, something his previous government had already done to prevent. He said Canada should not allow Chinese tech giants like huawei or ZTE to participate in its core data and technology services, including the development of 5G wireless networks. Harper did not specifically address the Trudeau government’s line on China Policy for most of his speech.
Harper emphasized that even when he was in office, the evidence in support of the decision to exclude Huawei from Canada’s 5G network was overwhelming. “Everyone involved with the security (issue) was rejecting it out of hand, as if there was no debate”, he said. The Trudeau government has yet to give a clear answer on the use of Huawei 5G equipment in Canada, and while it has publicly stated that a review is still underway, it has not offered a date for when a decision on the issue could be made.
Harper said he believes a “technological bifurcation” between China and the West is inevitable because the two societies have very different approaches to technology. In the West, he said, people are worried about “privacy, surveillance, the use of personal data by big tech companies. Meanwhile, “the whole Chinese technology system is designed for that,” he said.
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