East Asia is entering an era of population decline, with Taiwan, China, and South Korea following in the footsteps of Japan and beginning to experience a trend of population decline.
The Nikkei News reported that Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong all had negative population growth last year, meaning that the number of deaths exceeded the number of births, the first negative growth seen in these economies since records began. Taiwan’s population naturally declined by 7,900 last year, Hong Kong’s by 6,700, and South Korea’s by 32,700.
The number of newborns on the mainland also fell sharply last year, with the number of newborns dropping 15 percent to 10.03 million last year and the number of deaths approaching 10 million, both of which are fairly close. However, the official figures on the mainland may not reflect the real situation, as many Parents may not have registered the birth of their children. The mainland’s National Bureau of Statistics will release the number of newborns as soon as April.
The number of newborns in East Asia is likely to drop further this year due to the outbreak of Newcastle Pneumonia (a Chinese communist virus).
No one previously predicted that the population of East Asian economies would start decreasing so soon. The Korea Statistical Office originally estimated in 2016 that the population would begin to decline in 2032. The United Nations in 2019 predicted that South Korea’s population would begin to decline in 2025, while Taiwan’s timing falls in 2030.
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicts that the mainland’s population will begin to decline in 2030, while the United Nations sees the mainland’s population declining from 2032.
East Asian economies may have to revise their long-term economic forecasts. Taiwan, the mainland and South Korea have all begun to lose population between the ages of 15 and 64, but this age group is critical to economic growth, and further declines in fertility rates have led to an accelerated decline in the working population.
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