As the Chinese Communist Party does not renounce forceful aggression against Taiwan, U.S. experts Blackwill and Zelikow recommend that Washington join with Japan and other allies to prepare for war in the Taiwan Strait, but avoid explicitly committing to Taiwan’s defense in case Taiwan neglects to fortify itself by counting on U.S. assistance.
Robert Blackwill is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a U.S. think tank, and Philip Zelikow is a professor of history at the University of Virginia. The two participated in a CFR video seminar March 12 on the February report “The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy for Preventing War.
Since President Joe Biden took office in January, several officials have stressed that the U.S. commitment to Taiwan is “rock-solid” and urged Beijing to stop pressuring Taiwan in the military, diplomatic and economic spheres. But Buell believes that the nature of the U.S. commitment to Taiwan behind the rhetoric is less clear than in the past.
He and Zelig advocate in the report that the Biden Administration should affirm that it will not attempt to change Taiwan’s status; work with Japan and other allies to develop new options that could challenge China’s military actions against Taiwan and help Taiwan defend itself, increasing the burden on the Chinese Communist Party to expand the war effort; and openly plan for chaos and mobilization in the event of a major war, without assuming that the front will or should expand to China, Japan or the U.S. mainland.
The purpose of these proposals, said Bulwer, is to strengthen deterrence and make the Chinese Communist Party understand the consequences of raising tensions. To enhance Taiwan’s defense capabilities, the United States should step up its efforts to provide Taiwan with military support such as missiles and sensors, rather than expensive equipment.
He said, “A U.S.-China war would be a disaster for both countries and their people, and we must think carefully about how to avoid it while enhancing Taiwan’s international standing and strengthening its economy and self-defense capabilities.”
But Bulwer, who served as U.S. ambassador to India, argued that Washington should not abandon the strategic ambiguity it has pursued for decades, lest Taiwan neglect to strengthen its self-defense. He said that assuming a senator suggested that the U.S. offer an unbreakable commitment to Taiwan and that the U.S. would automatically enter the war if the Chinese Communist Party were to use force against Taiwan, what do you think would become of Taiwan’s military budget after receiving the assurance?
Zeliker said the Taiwanese people have long felt that the United States would assist in defense in the event of war in the Taiwan Strait, that conscription could be abolished, and that defense preparations need not be like those of Israel and Switzerland. But he and Buell argue that Taiwan must prepare for self-defense in a serious manner, and that the U.S. can simply support it from the sidelines, and cannot and should not create a moral hazard situation.
Zeliker, who served in the State Department, described the current situation as “very mysterious” in that the U.S. has not committed in advance to assist Taiwan in the event of a Communist attack, the role of Japan and other allies is unclear, and it is unclear whether the U.S. intends to attack the Chinese interior.
He and Buell advocate that the United States maintain the mysterious status quo while planning for war in the Taiwan Strait and openly rehearsing with allies to challenge the CCP’s counter-intervention capabilities and make the CCP bear the consequences of attacking Taiwan and expanding the war, but do not readily envision an expansion of the front to the Chinese interior and escalation into a full-scale war. Japan will re-militarize for this purpose and play a key role.
Zerico said, “We leave it to China (CCP) to decide whether to fight a local war, and the United States will focus only on assisting Taiwan in self-defense, not envisioning a war with China (CCP) per se.”
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