Weekly Hot Picks

Hot Quote】

Spot Gold has had a shaky week, continuing to slide on Monday, once falling below the $1670 mark, then continuing to rally in the following days, rising back to a one-week high of 1739.75 before Thursday’s European session, then falling back sharply, and as of this writing, spot gold is hovering near the $1700 mark. Spot silver has moved similarly to gold this week, rising to a one-week high of 26.43 by Thursday’s European session before continuing its downward move to below 25.50.

The 10-year U.S. bond yield saw a slight drop in the first three trading days of the week, falling back to 1.474% at one point, but climbed again on Thursday, rising to a one-week high of 1.614% during Friday’s European session.

The U.S. dollar index rebounded sharply on Monday, rose to 92.52 in Asian trading on Tuesday, then continued to dip, after gaining support at 91.40, rebounded again on Friday, approaching the 92 mark; pound against the dollar this week reversed the previous decline, closing up for four consecutive sessions, retraced some of the gains on Friday, still above the 1.39 mark; euro rebounded against the dollar for three consecutive sessions starting on Tuesday, but failed to touch the 1.20 mark, Friday gave back some of the gains, currently hovering around 1.92.

In the oil market, the international oil prices this week, a break, WTI Crude Oil was close to $ 68 early Monday, then continued to fall, fell to a one-week low of 63.12 on Wednesday, oil prices rebounded on Thursday, recovered some of the losses, back to $ 65 above; cloth oil from $ 71 above once down to $ 66.48 per barrel, then rebounded, back to $ 69 above.

The U.S. stock market shocks upward this week, as of Thursday, the S&P 500 index jumped higher for three consecutive trading days, Thursday continued to set a new record high, up to 3,960.6 points; the Dow also continued to set a new record high, up to 32,654.9 points.

[Weekly Events]

01, Biden officially signed 1.9 trillion U.S. dollars new crown bailout bill

Local Time on March 11, the U.S. President Joe Biden signed a new $1.9 trillion bailout bill, marking the official entry into force of the bill.

The new stimulus bill will cost $1.9 trillion and contains a number of aspects such as distributing checks to individuals, extending unemployment insurance, allocating funds to state and local governments, and improving vaccination and testing capabilities.

  1. This week’s U.S. bond auction ended with a not-so-bad result

At noon EST Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion in three-year Treasury bonds with a winning bid rate (auction price) of 0.355%, well above last month’s 0.19% but still below the pre-issuance rate of 0.359%. The bid multiple, a measure of demand, increased to 2.689 from 2.391, the highest level since June 2018.

Strong buyer demand met supply in Tuesday’s auction, which helped push U.S. bond yields collectively lower and the yield curve flattened. However, Thursday’s auction results were poor, but not too bad.

The U.S. Treasury bid a combined $24 billion of 30-year Treasuries on Thursday, with a bid rate of 2.295% and a bid multiple of 2.28 to measure demand, exceeding last month’s multiple of 2.176 but still below the average of 2.336 for the last six sales.

On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury also auctioned $38 billion of 10-year U.S. debt, with a winning bid rate of 1.523 percent, up from 1.155 percent in February and the highest since February 2020. The bid multiple, a measure of demand, was 2.38, slightly higher than last month’s 2.37, and the average of the past six auctions was also 2.37. The data from this auction was slightly weaker than expected.

  1. Vaccines speed up again, Biden to ask to promote universal vaccination by May 1

At 9:00 am BST Friday morning, Biden delivered a national address on vaccination efforts, saying he expects to achieve the goal of 100 million doses of the new crown pneumonia vaccination within his 60th day in office.

White House officials said a short time ago that Biden would direct states to make all adults eligible for the vaccine by May 1, and that about 10 percent of Americans have been fully vaccinated so far. And he said July 4 (Independence Day, the U.S. national holiday) is the target date for achieving a small gathering, when Americans can get closer to normal Life.

04, the European Central Bank promised to increase the pace of bond purchases

On Thursday night, the European Central Bank announced its interest rate resolution, which left three key interest rates unchanged. The main highlight of the interest rate resolution is that the ECB said that the speed of the purchase of emergency anti-Epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) will be significantly accelerated in the next quarter. The main reason is the failure to curb the rising bond yields, which could jeopardize the European economic recovery.

ECB President Lagarde later said at a press conference that rising bond yields could lead to premature tightening if left unchecked.

However, most officials have no intention of expanding the 1.85 trillion euro emergency bond-buying program, despite the ECB’s pledge on Thursday to speed up purchases to keep yields under control, according to officials familiar with the matter.

  1. OPEC Monthly Report Raises Crude Oil Demand Growth Expectation This Year

On Thursday night, OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report, in which the organization raised its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2021 to 5.89 million barrels per day from 5.79 million barrels per day. overall non-OPEC supply growth forecast for 2021 was raised to 950,000 barrels per day, compared with the previous forecast of 670,000 barrels per day.

The organization said continued blockade measures, maintaining social distance and other restrictions related to the outbreak continue to put pressure on economic activity, but the situation will improve in the second half of 2020.

In addition, on Wednesday night, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Russia will boost oil production in April due to an improvement in the country’s new crown pneumonia outbreak. He also said that Russia’s crude oil production in April this year will increase by 890,000 barrels per day from the level in May last year.

06、Many countries suspend AstraZeneca vaccination

Beijing time on Thursday evening (March 11), Iceland will suspend AstraZeneca vaccination until information on the safety of the vaccine is available, according to Icelandic state radio and television (RUV).

Earlier Thursday, Italy’s pharmacovigilance authority also said it would ban a batch of AstraZeneca’s New Crown vaccine after receiving some notifications of serious side effects following vaccination. Denmark, for its part, also announced the suspension of its New Crown vaccine.

In addition, according to Yonhap News Agency, South Korea’s Central Epidemic Countermeasures Headquarters said on March 3 that 51 cases of adverse reactions after vaccination with AstraZeneca’s New Crown vaccine were reported on March 2.

[Risk Warning].

Next week, three major central banks will announce their interest rate resolutions.

First is the Federal Reserve, which will announce its interest rate resolution, policy statement and economic expectations next Thursday at 2:00 a.m. The level of interest rates is expected to remain unchanged. Next Thursday at 02:30, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also hold a press conference. Investors need to pay attention to the Fed’s views on the recent spike in U.S. bond yields.

Also next Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate resolution and minutes at 20:00 the same day, and the central bank is expected to stay put.

Next Friday at 11:00, the Bank of Japan will also announce its interest rate resolution, and next Friday at 14:30, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference.

In terms of data, the first thing to focus on is the U.S. monthly retail sales rate for February, which will be released next Tuesday, with the market expected to register -0.3%, compared to the previous value of 5.3%. If the data really performs badly by then, investors need to be careful of a huge market shock.