A photo of the International Space Station taken by cosmonauts from the Russian Soyuz spacecraft after it detached from the station on Oct. 4, 2018.
Many details of the joint Russian-Chinese lunar exploration cooperation project have yet to be released. Mutual suspicions and fears of technology loss have led to the often tawdry fate of some of the two countries’ past large-scale cooperation projects. Many observers are therefore unimpressed with the two countries’ newly announced lunar exploration plans.
Will the two countries’ joint lunar exploration also end in a tangent?
The Chinese Communist Party and Russia signed a memorandum of understanding on March 9 to jointly build an international lunar research station. While the news has attracted attention, some Russian observers familiar with the relationship between the two countries say that what has been signed is only a non-binding declaratory document, with no real action so far and too many unknowns about the future of the two countries’ joint lunar exploration program.
They believe it is too early to draw conclusions about the future of the joint Russian-Chinese lunar exploration cooperation program based on past experience with many large-scale projects between the two countries. A Russian scholar on China told local media that whenever the two countries negotiate cooperation projects, the Chinese Communist Party often makes a list of technologies it wants to acquire, and that many of the projects end up being unsuccessful.
Some comments on Russian social media also suggested that the moon exploration project between the two countries could end up in a repeat of the heavy helicopter development project between the two sides. The Chinese Communist Party had expected to master the technology through cooperation in the development of heavy-lift helicopters. But the project turned out to be funded by the Chinese Communist Party, with Russia as a subcontractor, rather than a joint development of the technology as originally envisioned.
Russia tightens control on technology outflow, tests partnership on moon probe
Lissov, an independent commentator in the space sector, said Russia sold China a number of technologies and sample devices in the field of manned spacecraft years ago. Similar cooperation would not make much sense if the two sides’ space cooperation remained dominated by commercial interests.
As far as I know, the current cooperation in the space sector is still based on commercial interests,” Lissov said. That is, Russia sells to China, or China sells something to Russia, and of course that is a form of cooperation. But the best cooperation is still one in which both countries should contribute and jointly develop technology.”
He said that joint development of technology makes real sense. Russia can also cooperate with Europe, or with the United States, if only commercial interests are involved.
Russian Experts Weekly says it is too early to discuss how far Russia will go on the path of cooperation with China on the moon and how much benefit cooperation with China in this field can bring to Russia, because Russia has no experience of large-scale cooperation with China in the space sector, and the establishment of a research station on the moon would be just the right test of their partnership.
However, in the course of cooperation with the Chinese Communist Party, Russia has in recent years increasingly tightened its control over the flow of technology to China. A number of Russian scientists in the fields of aviation, space and other fields are constantly being arrested while cooperating with the CCP. Russian judicial authorities have charged them with providing technology to the CCP, and some have even received heavy prison sentences for treason.
Old cosmonautics power wants to be equal with China
Russia has a great deal of experience and technology accumulated over the years in the space sector. The Soviet era saw many launches of various probes to the moon, as early as 1959 when it launched the world’s first unmanned probe to make a hard landing on the lunar surface. The former Soviet Union, Russia and the United States also share a wealth of experience in cooperating on the International Space Station project.
Russian media said that although Russia was also invited to participate in the U.S.-led lunar exploration program, Russia withdrew because it did not want to take on the role of junior partner. In cooperation with the Chinese Communist Party, Russia will seek an equal role. In addition, the Chinese Communist Party’s Chang’e 5 lunar probe, launched late last year, successfully demonstrated sophisticated docking technology in orbit, which also drew Russia’s attention. Some Russian experts believe that the Chinese Communist Party’s move is an obvious preparation for sending astronauts to land on the moon in the future.
Roscosmos head Rogozin has invited Chinese space leaders to participate in the launch of Russia’s Lunar 25 probe this October. The launch will take place at Russia’s Eastern Rocket Range across the Heilongjiang River. This is the second Time Russia has launched a probe to the moon since the 1970s.
The eight is not yet 2024 or start coordinating the two countries’ projects
Russia’s cooperation with the United States on the International Space Station project could end in 2024. Russian cosmonautics leader Rogozin said late last year, congratulating astronauts aboard the ISS on the New Year, that Russia must implement its own program of lunar exploration and long-range space exploration.
Many observers say the U.S. lunar exploration program now has a clear timeline and budget, and much of the work is already on the horizon. Russia and the Chinese Communist Party also each have their own lunar exploration programs. China will also step up construction of a manned space station this year. Against this backdrop, whether the Chinese Communist Party will devote energy and money to another joint lunar exploration with Russia makes the future of the joint Russian-Chinese lunar exploration program even more unpredictable.
They believe that if things go well, Russian-Chinese lunar exploration could start as early as 2026. But the two sides have planned for 2024, allowing Russia’s Moon 26 probe program to coordinate with China’s Chang’e 7 program.
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