On Wednesday night at 21:30, the U.S. released February’s quarterly CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, unchanged from expectations and maintaining growth for the ninth consecutive month. The year-over-year increase reached 1.7%, the highest rate of increase since February 2020.
After the data was released, spot Gold and silver pulled up briefly, spot gold rose $8 briefly; spot silver stood at $26/oz, up 0.42% intraday. the COMEX most active gold futures contract 21:32 GMT on March 10 within a minute of buying and selling plate instantly traded 2536 lots, trading contracts worth a total of $436 million. Then at 21:34 a minute in the buying and selling plate and instantly traded 2,613 lots, the total value of trading contracts 450 million U.S. dollars
U.S. Treasury prices began to rise and the 10-year Treasury yield dipped in the short term. The U.S. dollar index continued to sink, moving 16 points lower in the short term.
Specifically, the index for all items except Food and energy rose 0.1% in February. the housing index rose 0.2% in February, while the owner-equivalent rent index rose 0.3% and the rent index rose 0.2%. The U.S. recreation index rose 0.6 percent in February.
The agency said the U.S. CPI rose solidly in February, recording the largest annual increase in a year, as demand for services such as air travel gradually heated up due to improved public health, yet underlying Inflation remained lukewarm.
Uruci, a senior economist at Barclays, expects that overall U.S. inflation could be as high as 3.6 percent by May. After the passage of the stimulus bill last December, consumer demand for goods has remained strong and will see another round of rising demand in the future, which will keep core commodity prices strong. The services sector is also likely to face an uptick in demand, which is expected to occur in the third or fourth quarter.
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi expects U.S. inflation to rise sharply in the spring, with some “big numbers” in the next few months, and then return to below 2% for a while before re-accelerating. Inflation is expected to be above 2% again by the end of the year and early next year.
He expects that by the end of 2022, inflation will remain above the Fed’s target, and by early 2023, the Fed may raise interest rates, by which Time it will reach full employment. He said inflation is likely to be higher, and could end up as high as 2.5% to 3%.
Financial blog Zero Hedge, meanwhile, said that after last year’s crisis, the U.S. quarterly CPI rose 0.4 percent monthly in February, the fastest rate of growth in seven months, and that the sharp rebound in inflation could be as temporary as the Fed says it is.
Morgan Stanley macro strategist Jim Caron also expressed agreement with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s inflation forecast that the rise in inflation could be temporary. A lasting inflationary trend is not expected if wages do not rise sharply, but this could also unsettle markets.
Analysts point out that the latest inflation data gives the Fed some flexibility to implement a more accommodative monetary policy. But some analysts say the U.S. economy will also need to see more sustained, higher inflation if gold prices are to return to last summer’s record highs, which is difficult to achieve because of the economy’s devastating impact from the Epidemic.