On March 8, 2021, the National Policy Research Institute (NPRI) held a symposium on “The Communist Party’s Two Sessions, the Two Powers and Cross-Straits” to discuss the direction of cross-straits relations after the two sessions on the mainland.
Some scholars in Taiwan believe that Beijing has established the three principles of “one China against independence”, “one China for integration” and “one China for unification”. In the future, under the normalization of warplanes and warships around Taiwan, the goal of promoting talks and unification will be gradually accomplished. Some scholars say that the Taiwan issue reflects the traces of power struggle in the Communist Party of China, and believe that the 20th National Congress in the coming year will abandon collective leadership and clarify the status of one core. (Zhong Guangzheng reports from Taipei)
In Taiwan, the blue-backed Institute for National Policy Studies held a symposium titled “The Communist Party’s Two Sessions, the Two Powers and Cross-Strait” on Monday (8) to discuss the changes in cross-strait relations after the two sessions on the mainland.
Professor Zhang Wuyue of Tamkang University said at the symposium that from the speeches and reports of CPPCC Chairman Wang Yang, Premier Li Keqiang and Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the two sessions, it seems that Beijing will adhere to the three principles of “one China against independence, one China for integration and one China for unification” towards Taiwan. And Tsai’s reshuffling of personnel in national security and cross-strait work has led to the misconception that spring is about to bloom across the Taiwan Strait.
Zhang Wuyue said: cross-strait relations without political mutual trust, not only has an impact on the negotiations and consultations, even exchanges have an impact. Therefore, without the foundation of political mutual trust, it is impossible to have a comprehensive spring blossom, which should be the most important thing that Beijing wants to express. In Zhang Zhijun’s text interview with the so-called CNA, he also re-emphasized this view, so the outside world should not over-interpret it. Beijing has basically taken this measure with several considerations in mind, highlighting his so-called strategic territory, highlighting his manipulation of his own, satisfying his internal national sentiment that is soaring, and to some extent, making an example of the monkey.
As for the future development of cross-strait relations, Zhang Wuyue believes that Wang Yi’s speech shows that Beijing still insists on peaceful reunification, as well as the inevitable reunification without any compromise. And the mainland is one with Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, as shown by the past year’s practice, Beijing adopts a policy of urgent Hong Kong and slow Taiwan.
Zhang Wuyue said: Therefore, we can see the future trend in cross-strait relations, Beijing’s policy is very clear: one China, firm anti-independence, one China anti-independence through force, through aircraft and ships around Taiwan, I believe this will definitely be normalized. The intensification of aircraft and ships around Taiwan depends on Taiwan’s internal situation and on the U.S.-Taiwan relationship. U.S.-Taiwan relations have progress, Taiwan relations is not to let Beijing feel the benefit of a is strengthened, otherwise we will operate according to the table. Therefore the second so-called one China to promote unification, the future of social and economic integration and development, must be Beijing’s top priority. The third is Beijing’s so-called promotion of talks and unification, and I believe Beijing also believes that this topic cannot remain unmentioned for a long Time.
On March 8, 2021, Tamkang University Professor Zhang Wuyue: Beijing will adhere to the three principles of “one China against independence, one China for integration, and one China for unification” towards Taiwan. (Photo by Chung Kwong-ching)
Recently, the Chinese General Administration of Customs announced a temporary ban on the import of Taiwan pineapples, which Zhang Wuyue believes is mainly aimed at the stability of US-Taiwan relations after the new US administration took office. For some Taiwan media worry that after pineapple, Beijing may attack other Taiwan fruits, Zhang Wuyue said that Beijing did not use ECFA to attack Taiwan, only pineapple was tested for mesocosm, which shows that it will not expand the attack on Taiwan.
Taiwan think tank consultant Lai Yi-chung pointed out that, comparing the policies of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang towards Taiwan, it was found that the two of them were working in opposite directions towards Taiwan’s integration. Li Keqiang had proposed to enter the island, enter the household and enter the heart, but after Xi Jinping came to power, Beijing began to move towards restricting the exchange of mainland Chinese people and resources to Taiwan, such as suspending the arrival of mainland visitors and students to Taiwan, and hoped that Taiwanese people would go to mainland China for development.
According to Lai, this year’s “two sessions” will be the starting point for the 20th Communist Party Congress next year, and Xi will consolidate his power before then, eventually reaching the goal that the party’s general secretary is equal to the party’s central committee, and making the concept of collective leadership fictional.
The CEO of the Asia Pacific and Peace Foundation, Dong Liwen, also said that the speeches of Li Keqiang at the two sessions revealed a strong contradiction between Xi Jinping, the general secretary of the Communist Party, and Li Keqiang, with a clear inconsistency in policy and direction.
Tian Hongmao, director of the National Policy Research Institute and former foreign minister, said that it is not easy for Taiwan to maintain a political and economic balance when it is caught between the two powers, the United States and China. The two sides of the Taiwan Strait in military security, political and diplomatic potential crisis, although not yet reached the level of military confrontation, and both sides of the Taiwan Strait at the top are not willing to confront, but it does not mean that there will not be gunfire, should consider whether to establish a crisis control channel or mechanism.
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