In the 2022 French presidential election, Macron will narrowly defeat Marie Le Pen, president of the far-right National Rally (RN), according to a poll. Those voters who oppose Le Pen, however, did not appear to be joined in opposition by the Common Front this Time.
According to a survey conducted by Harris Poll on behalf of the Commstrat public relations group, the 2022 election results will see incumbent Macron win in the second round of voting, but his vote share is very close to that of his far-right rival, Marie Le Pen, the female candidate of the National Alliance (RN), that is: 53% of the vote versus 47%.
According to the results of the second wave of polls conducted by Harris Poll for Commstrat, published on Monday by the new generation digital newspaper L’Opinion, Macron will win the 2022 election if he faces Marie-Le Pen in the second round of voting. However, the two received very close vote shares. Macron 53%, Marin 47%. The first round of polls, conducted at the end of January, had Macron at 52% and his opponent Marin at 48%. In particular, the poll showed that the majority of voters refused to vote for Macron in order to block Le Pen.
And this phenomenon is particularly evident for voters of La France insoumise (The French Insubordination Party). If Macron and Le Pen were to face off in 2022, 52% of Melenchon supporters would refuse to vote for one of the two. Unprecedentedly, the other 48% of Melenchon’s supporters who would vote are also evenly split between Macron and Le Pen. The poll thus highlights that in 2017, only a quarter of Melenchon’s supporters had chosen to abstain.
Poll: 2022 election is highly volatile
According to the same survey, 28% of the voters of Javier Bertrand, President of the Hauts-de-France region, would choose Emmanuel Macron and 21% would choose Marie Le Pen.
In the case of Paris Mayor Hidalgo, half of her supporters will not take a stand in the runoff. Forty-one percent of her supporters say they will vote for Macron. And 9 percent of voters will vote for Marie Le Pen. The only party president whose majority of his own supporters said they would vote for Macron was Jadot of the Ecologist Party, with 51%, while 5% of his supporters said they would vote for Le Pen of the National Union.
The poll results also show that Marie Le Pen of the far-right National Union has now consolidated her base: 84% of voters who voted for her in 2017 confirmed that they would vote for Marie Le Pen again in 2022.
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