Japan’s third-quarter GDP brightens, China factor evident

Japanese media reported on the 16th, Japan’s Cabinet Office released the same day data show that Japan’s third quarter of 2020 (July-September) GDP excluding price changes from the previous quarter increased by 5%, translating into an annual growth rate of 21.4%, the data is a record high.

Japan’s Cabinet Office released the third-quarter GDP snapshot value, which showed that the July-September quarterly GDP growth was the highest since October-December 1968, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun said. This is the first positive growth in nearly four quarters, according to Japan’s Kyodo news agency. But need to see, April-June this year due to the impact of the epidemic, Japan’s GDP in the current quarter of the annual GDP conversion decline of 28.8%, the largest drop after World War II. July-September, despite a strong rebound, but only part of the recovery of April-June part of the decline. If you look at the annual GDP translation amount, the total volume of Japan’s economy in the third quarter of this year is only equivalent to about 94% of the July-September 2019 GDP.

In terms of specific economic data, Japan’s personal consumption rose 4.7 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, exports rose 7 percent, and imports slumped 9.8 percent, Kyodo said. Investment in equipment fell 3.4 percent, while public investment grew 0.4 percent. Due to the global epidemic situation a little slower, especially the major economies economic recovery is on the rise, Japan’s foreign trade has improved, net exports increased to boost economic growth. From the main objects of Japan’s foreign trade, China’s pulling effect is particularly obvious. Japan’s exports to China has been positive growth for three consecutive months, and has become the most important and irreplaceable source of Japan’s external demand. Japan’s semiconductor and automotive industries have particularly benefited, the main enterprises have raised their performance expectations. Bank of Mitsubishi UFJ analysis that, in the third quarter, government spending and public investment to play a big role in promoting, although business conditions have recovered, but the investment enthusiasm is still low.

On the outlook for the Japanese economy, a Japanese Cabinet Office official said the Japanese economy will maintain a moderate recovery momentum, but there is uncertainty. Private economists generally believe that the current momentum of recovery of the Japanese economy “more than expected”, but in view of the current epidemic “third wave” reared its head again in some parts of Japan, this momentum may also be suspended, at least the fourth quarter of GDP growth is unlikely to reproduce! A significant increase in the third quarter.

In order to stimulate domestic economic growth and promote official and private digitalization, Kyodo News said on September 16 that Japan has basically decided to establish the Digital Agency in September next year. It is planned to be under the direct control of the Prime Minister, with private citizens serving as “digital supervisors”. The Digital Agency will have a staff of 500 people, of whom more than 100 will be private individuals with high IT skills and extensive experience.