Bonny Lin, a researcher at the RAND Corporation, a U.S. think tank, told the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) last month. The analysis pointed out that if China invades Taiwan by force, Japan and Australia are the most likely U.S. allies to support Taiwan, and may even cooperate with the U.S. military to defend Taiwan.
According to “US Allied and Partner Support for Taiwan” published by Lin Biying last month, if “Taiwan’s strategic importance” is taken as the starting point, Japan and Australia may be the most likely U.S. allies to stand up for Taiwan when China invades Taiwan by force. If the “strategic importance of Taiwan” is the starting point, Japan and Australia may be the U.S. allies that will stand up for Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. For Japan, once the PLA occupies Taiwan, Japan’s maritime trade and energy transportation routes and the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyutai), over which Japan claims sovereignty, will be seriously threatened. For Australia, a PLA breakthrough of the first island chain would greatly increase China’s ability to intervene in the Indo-Pacific region, and a forceful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would constitute a challenge to the democratic, rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific region.
The uncertainty of whether other U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific region, such as Vietnam, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and India, will support the U.S. and Taiwan is much higher. In contrast, Japan and Australia may allow U.S. troops to be stationed in their own territory as a front-line base for Taiwan’s defense, and may even send their own troops to join U.S. forces in Taiwan’s defense.
Lin Biying suggested that the U.S. should encourage regional allies to take more actions in support of Taiwan during the period of peace, such as collectively lobbying for Taiwan’s membership in various international organizations, strengthening economic and trade cooperation with Taiwan, etc. Lin also pointed out that although the United States is not obligated to defend Taiwan when China attacks by force, the countries in the Indo-Pacific region expect the United States to take concrete action; once the United States does nothing, the countries in the Indo-Pacific region will lose trust in the commitments made by the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, and the consequences will go far beyond Taiwan’s gains and losses.
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