The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has issued one warning after another this week about China’s military threats in the region, with Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Davidson saying he is “very concerned” that China could reach military dominance in the next six years and force a change in the regional status quo, which he believes would be permanent. The U.S. should encourage Taiwan to invest more in its self-defense capabilities, and it is “critical” that the U.S. government continue its arms sales to Taiwan.
Adm. Philip Davidson, commander of Indo-Pacific Command, made the remarks Thursday in a video conversation with the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank, from its headquarters in Hawaii as China continues to increase military spending and build military capabilities that experts say threaten the interests of the United States and its allies.
China may force changes to regional status quo
Adm. Davidson said, “Between now and 2026, which is this 10-year timeframe, China could reach a position of superiority in capability, and when Beijing has the capability, it may choose to change the regional status quo in a coercive way, and I would say that change in that status quo is likely to be permanent.”
There is no doubt, he said, that China seeks to change the world order, as it is often called, to a world order with “Chinese characteristics” in which Chinese power is more important than international law.
Before Davidson, Rear Admiral Michael Studeman, chief of intelligence for the Indo-Pacific Command, also noted in an online speech Tuesday that China is steadily increasing pressure on Taiwan with military activities, intruding into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and “establishing a new normal around Taiwan through their military presence. ” He said people are getting a taste of what it’s like to be dominated or heavily influenced by China.
In his speech, Davidson also mentioned the geopolitical role of Pacific island nations as he stressed the importance of Guam’s defense to the security of the U.S. mainland. He said the Pacific island chain, which includes Palau, Micronesia and the Marshall Islands, are small countries with small populations but cover a huge oceanic area and were all contested by soldiers during World War II, and that China is trying to gain control of the region.
China Coerces Pacific Island Countries
“I have seen a staggering amount of coercion, corruption and attempts to buy off the People’s Republic of China throughout the Pacific Island chain. It involves under-the-table payments to government and business elites, and it also involves threats and coercive actions to get you to do something or stop doing something. For example, say if you call on the United Nations to investigate the source of the ‘Wuhan virus,’ we in China will punish you.”
Another example, Davidson said, is when China banned imports of Taiwanese pineapples because it didn’t like the public comments made by Taiwan’s foreign minister, “which is enough to show how dramatic the situation is. What can you say? What can’t you say? How would China react?”
He said that China will also buy the leadership of international organizations, such as telecommunications, air travel, and agriculture, which are resources that the Pacific island nations have an urgent need for and are extremely important to them, but China has gained the leadership and dominant power of those UN organizations, so the U.S. must pay more attention to the situation in the Pacific island chain because of the importance of their role.
After discussing China’s ban on Taiwan’s pineapple imports, Eric Sayers, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, then asked Davidson for his assessment of the cross-strait situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Arms sales to Taiwan critical
Davidson said the military space around Taiwan has been eroded over the past few months, and he has seen an increase in air activity from the People’s Republic of China, including bombers, warplanes, reconnaissance planes, maritime patrol planes and others, “and they’re even going deeper into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. He has also seen Chinese maritime police vessels and fishing boats penetrate deeper into the vicinity of the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands).
Considering the future direction of this situation, Davidson said, “I’m very concerned about the next six years, and certainly this decade included, because of the change in the capabilities of the People’s Republic of China, including the number of warplanes, bombers, ships. When I look back at the turn of the century, Taiwan’s capabilities were beyond China’s, and that’s no longer the case.”
Davidson said what the U.S. can do is encourage Taiwan to invest more in a portfolio of different capabilities, including providing those that are helpful to Taiwan’s deterrence and asymmetric capabilities and can assist in Taiwan’s defense, which he believes is an approach the U.S. Department of Defense must take, and for the U.S. government as a whole, “it’s even more critical to sustain arms sales to Taiwan that contribute to that deterrence strategy. “
Must have deterrence and readiness capabilities
On the situation of contact and joint training between the U.S. and Taiwan’s military, Davidson said U.S.-Taiwan military contact is primarily to assist Taiwan in maintaining self-defense and deterrence capabilities and understanding how they are prepared to fight should the need arise, “We have to have that understanding to win the war.”
Davidson said Indo-Pacific Command’s primary job is to keep the peace, but the United States must absolutely be prepared to win a war if competition turns into conflict, and the U.S. military and U.S. allies and partners must provide credible readiness deterrence capabilities to slow down Beijing’s decisions and convince them, “Today is not the day.” (Today is not the day.)
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in a work report that his government will boost the military’s combat capability this year through reform, technology and personnel training.
In an analysis of the regional implications of China’s increased military spending, Lai-Yi Ge, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that China’s significant increase in defense spending has given it “a sustained ability to build military capabilities that pose a threat to U.S. and allied interests,” and that China’s continued defense investment has tipped the regional military balance in its favor.
In this analysis, Grey and several other researchers say that “the erosion of China’s traditional deterrence capabilities increases the risk of conflict, including the possibility that it will lead China to become more assertive and bold in seeking to unilaterally change the status quo through the threat or use of force.”
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