Point 1: Will the economic growth target be announced? How to turn the double cycle?
The 2021 National People’s Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the National Committee of the National Political Consultative Conference (NCCPC) will be held on March 4-5. Thousands of deputies from all over mainland China will gather in Beijing, focusing on the 14th Five-Year Plan and the 2035 Vision adopted by the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee last year.
According to the latest data released by the Communist Party’s Bureau of Statistics on Feb. 28, mainland China’s economy will grow by 2.3 percent in 2020, making it the only major economy in the world to achieve positive growth in its economic system. In addition, mainland China’s GDP per capita has exceeded $10,000 for two consecutive years.
The world’s major financial institutions are generally optimistic about mainland China’s economic growth forecast for this year, with Goldman Sachs forecasting China’s economic growth to reach 7.5% in 2021, the International Monetary Fund forecasting 8.1% and Citigroup 8.2%.
Catherine Mann, chief global economist at Citi, said at an event at the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank, on March 2 that although mainland China is still performing well in a world economy affected by the Epidemic, the fundamental problem with mainland China’s economy is that it is still looking for a domestic consumption-driven “Before the epidemic, mainland China had been looking for this bridge (over a labor-intensive economic model), and so far it has not crossed this hurdle.”
During last May’s National People’s Congress (CPPCC), Xi Jinping proposed a “new development pattern of a dual domestic and international cycle that promotes each other,” and analysts observe that the implementation of the “dual cycle” will continue to be discussed at this year’s session.
Notably, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, in his government work report to the National People’s Congress in 2020, said for the first Time that mainland China will not set a GDP growth target, the first time since 1994 when mainland China began setting economic growth targets that no specific target was proposed.
“How will Li Keqiang talk about the economy this year, and should he reset the (economic growth) target? How to write Li Keqiang’s report? With Xi Jinping tone a inconsistency are the focus of observation.” Wang Juntao, chairman of the National Committee of the Mainland Democratic Party, told the station.
Watch point two: poverty eradication propaganda Xi and Li can be the same tone?
Before this year’s two sessions, the CCP’s official propaganda campaign focused on what Xi Jinping called the “miracle on earth”: the comprehensive victory in the battle against poverty in mainland China.
After Xi announced this “victory” at the National Poverty Eradication Summit on Feb. 25, the CCP’s official media began to promote it, and on Feb. 28 the Xinhua think tank published “China’s Poverty Reduction Studies” and released a documentary on “China’s Poverty Reduction Code.
“Xi Jinping has been in power for eight years, and he must have a list of achievements to show for it. Poverty reduction, although the standard is very low, is a very big performance for Xi Jinping, so of course it should be a key propaganda.” I.W. Deng, an independent scholar currently living in the United States, told the station.
I.W. Deng mentioned that the two sessions were held after the “Poverty Alleviation Conference”, so how to sustain rural revitalization and solve the problems of aging population and relative poverty are the continuation of the topic of poverty alleviation.
Li Keqiang mentioned in public last year that 600 million people in mainland China have a monthly income of less than 1,000 yuan. Wang Juntao analysis, take the pragmatic line of how Li Keqiang this two sessions on the statement on poverty eradication, can see some of the end of the CPC political wind. “This can also observe how far Xi Jinping has gone in totalitarian power, and if there is still a gap, it means that Xi is not yet able to fully unify his thinking and tone at least within the party and at least at the Standing Committee level.”
Taking the infighting between Deng Xiaoping and Chen Yun in the 1980s as an example, Wang Juntao said observers would read the order of “reform” and “rectification” in official Communist Party documents to determine who has gained power. “If the word rectification appears first, it means that Chen Yun had the upper hand in that year.”
The third point: the CPPCC meeting “vase party always bloom two flowers”?
The People’s Congress has considered the work report of the State Council, the draft national economic and social development plan for the new year, the draft government budget report, and the work reports of the Supreme People’s Court and the Supreme People’s Procuratorate. The CPPCC meetings, on the other hand, “discuss major national policies and important issues of public concern, or consider important proposals put forward by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council.”
Observers in mainland China have analyzed the topics that come up at the CPPCC meetings as a way to reveal certain information about the current situation in mainland China and as a way to see which insensitive topics the CPC Central Committee is “pretending to be open to discussion.
For example, Wang Juntao said that the problem of power cuts and energy tensions in many places in mainland China since the end of last year might be explained in the speeches of CPPCC members and experts. “The CPPCC is to discuss the topics that are allowed to be discussed above and that the people are concerned about, and we say that the ‘vase party’ always has to open two flowers, and these two flowers may also reveal some useful information.”
I.M. Deng mentioned the population issue and whether to open up the discussion of full fertility may be one of the points to watch.
Watch point four: Hong Kong issues reform the election system full control?
Before this session, 47 people who participated in the democratic primary election in Hong Kong were charged with conspiracy to subvert state power causing international condemnation; in addition, some Hong Kong media rumored that the two sessions may discuss reforming Hong Kong’s electoral system.
Earlier this year, Xi Jinping put forward the “patriots rule Hong Kong” thesis, and Beijing officials have set the tone for it. The Hong Kong media, Hong Kong 01, earlier quoted sources as saying that Beijing will “assess” whether candidates meet the “patriot” requirement in the current election system, which covers all levels of elections, including the Election Committee, which is responsible for electing the Chief Executive, and the two directly elected battlegrounds of the Legislative Council and District Councils. The scope covers all levels of elections, including the Election Committee, which is responsible for electing the Chief Executive, and the Legislative Council and District Councils, which are the two main battlegrounds for direct elections. There are also rumors that the Electoral Affairs Commission will be reorganized to strengthen the control of nomination qualifications for elections at all levels by adding a large number of politically appointed members.
Hong Kong media “Ming Pao” also quoted sources as saying that there may be changes in the “delineation” of the five districts of the Legislative Council direct election in Hong Kong.
“We can only see from the current wind direction that the Chinese Communist Party does not trust the Hong Kong leadership.” Wang Juntao said the real game of Hong Kong issues, usually not the focus of the two sessions, and it is difficult to see the end from the meeting.
Recent Comments