At present, the query real estate agents shell and so on, Shenzhen second-hand house prices are still “no data”. During the past Chinese New Year and Lantern Festival holidays, most agents had zero transactions and the market was in a freeze.
According to the Wall Street Journal on March 1, the circulation and transaction of second-hand houses is a key part of real estate value realization, under the severe policy restrictions, most industry insiders said that the transaction of second-hand houses in Shenzhen is difficult to improve in the short term, and the shrinkage of horizontal market will continue.
On February 8, the Shenzhen Housing Authority (URA) released 3595 reference prices for second-hand housing units, most of which were lower than the market price, and some were even only half.
Only half a month later, the URA again additional regulation, from February 23, strictly check the intermediaries in stores, websites, WeChat, qq and other platforms of the release of second-hand price information, if found higher than the reference price will be severely punished.
The first impact of the new regulation of second-hand housing in Shenzhen is the intermediary. At present, Chain Home, Centaline and other intermediaries on the official website of the Shenzhen area second-hand listings only show the official reference price, did not provide the owner offer.
The agents said that the reference price of second-hand houses at this stage not only inhibits the demand of home buyers, but also discourages the owners of the listing enthusiasm, “many areas suffered a massive withdrawal, some owners are in a capricious mood, some owners said in the morning to sell, the afternoon is not sold, there are owners to sign the contract refused to go out”.
The agency said, in addition to a very small number of urgent need for money, most owners sell their homes in order to increase leverage to replace a better house, if the bank according to the reference price down the mortgage line, which is equal to block their replacement road, so at this stage many owners prefer to cover the plate.
According to the report, the Chinese Communist Party‘s property market control policy has put the market in a stalemate: no price, owners cover the property, can’t sell the property, no deal. A broker at a chain store in the center of Bao’an said that there was not a single transaction of second-hand houses in the whole area so far on February 8; before the release of the reference price of second-hand houses, the area was a hot spot for second-hand house transactions in Shenzhen.
Even the hottest Bagua Ling school district houses also “doorstep”, February 8 so far, Bagua Ling area only a single transaction. Shenzhen’s primary and secondary schools open enrollment in April and May, and in previous years, February and March was the popular period for showing and trading school district houses.
Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association data show that after February 8, Shenzhen second-hand house single-day transactions from hundreds of thousands of sets of “ankle chop” to dozens of sets, or even single-digit; the latest week (February 15 to February 21), Shenzhen second-hand house net signings 362 sets, down 78.3% compared to the ring.
The data from the Lejia Research Center shows that the return of the Chinese New Year, Shenzhen property market transactions almost stagnant.
The most critical part of the new Shenzhen second-hand house reference price is whether banks lend according to the reference price. A Centaline intermediary said, confirmed by the company’s mortgage officer, the cooperation of banks, Bank of Beijing, Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank, etc. has issued mortgage loans in accordance with the reference price.
As of February 27, Shenzhen’s four major banks have taken the position that the government reference price as an important basis for issuing mortgage loans. The four major banks’ mortgage loans, accounting for more than 80% of the total market transactions.
In addition to the tightening of mortgage loans, the policy is also strictly control the flow of business loans into the property market. In this regard, a chain agent said, “At this stage, you don’t need to consider business loans to buy a house, the small financial institutions we contacted are afraid to take orders, while the banks are not guaranteed not committed attitude.”
If banks issue mortgage credits according to the reference price, and the owner pricing remains unchanged, the down payment for home buyers will be significantly increased.
Guangdong Province Housing Policy Research Center Chief Researcher Li Yujia believes that the current policy winds, Shenzhen second-hand housing subsequent turnover is likely to shrink, the transaction price is in a horizontal state, bright, Shajing, Baoan Center and other areas that rose more significantly last year, the probability that prices will fall back significantly.
Li Yujia said that there are two key points affecting the direction of the Shenzhen property market, one is whether the banking regulators (for example, the Shenzhen Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau) issued a document requiring banks to do the Appraisal price in accordance with the reference price? The second is what kind of resolution mechanism will be set for transaction disputes? If some sellers do not recognize the guide price, how will it be handled? Will properties that are significantly higher than the guideline price be banned from online signing?
He believes that if these two points are clear, then the second-hand market will obviously chill; new homes will also need to refer to the second-hand prices to make pre-sale prices, and this will also have a big impact on playing new.
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