Is there a risk of a strategic miscalculation between the U.S. and China, two major powers with nuclear weapons, that could lead to a nuclear war in World War III? A report sent to Congress on Monday by the U.S. National Security Council on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) recommended that the U.S. government should make clear that it will not allow artificial intelligence (AI) technology to dominate the use of nuclear weapons systems, while asking China and Russia to make similar commitments. Some scholars told the station that the lack of international norms for the application of AI technology makes it urgent for the U.S. and China to avoid the risk of a repeat of the near nuclear war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union in 1983.
Although the late Soviet Lieutenant Colonel Petrov (Stanislav Petrov) in the documentary “The Man Who Saved the World” modestly says he is no hero, if Petrov had not made a calm judgment in those 23 minutes at 00:15 a.m. on September 26, 1983, it is suspected that the “highest level” of danger ” alarm blast was an error in the Soviet Union’s own system, the world might not have recovered from the tragedy of a nuclear war that left lives in ruins.
That was a major oops in the Cold War era between the United States and the former Soviet Union, each with tens of thousands of nuclear warheads, that came close to the brink of war. Soviet military satellites misjudged the sunlight reflected from clouds as the trailing flame of a missile, triggering an alert notification that the United States had fired five nuclear intercontinental missiles at the Soviet homeland.
If both the United States and China in the 21st century leave Petrov’s job to the technology of artificial intelligence, Ryan Fedasiuk, a researcher at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service’s Center for Security and Emerging Technologies (CSET), told Radio Free Asia that if artificial intelligence technology is applied to nuclear weapons systems, he was struck by the thought.
“The Petrov 1983 incident, which was the activation of the alert because of incomplete information, and also deliberate misuse, such as locking the system down, and I can also imagine a third major risk that our adversaries might misunderstand the conditions under which nuclear weapons systems are activated, i.e., strategic ambiguity gone awry, which could result in them being forced to take nuclear retaliation. ” Faireyan, who specializes in the application of artificial intelligence technology, told reporters.
The U.S. president’s nuclear button soccer bag (i.e., nuclear button tote bag) when to open, if all just rely on artificial intelligence to make a judgment, or even let AI to automatically start that button, seemingly too imaginative nuclear war , not necessarily will not become a reality. The final report sent to Congress by the U.S. National Commission on Artificial Intelligence Security specifically warns against this.
The commission’s report recommends that the U.S. government make clear that it will not allow AI technology to dominate the use of nuclear weapons systems, and that China and Russia be required to make similar commitments.
The commission also recommends that the U.S. should lead and take the lead in establishing international standards for how AI technology is applied in the nuclear weapons arena.
PLA Actively Researching AI Technology, Civilian-Military Integration Takes a Giant Step Forward
In a report on the PLA’s use of AI technology written by Ferrien last year, he took a similar view. He told reporters that while he has not seen any published studies or reports from China confirming that the PLA is developing AI technology applications for nuclear weapons systems, it is certain that “the PLA is investing a lot of resources in researching AI technology and they are becoming more aggressive; on the other hand, they are also working with a large number of Chinese companies to put resources into the military use of AI technology So there’s no question that their capabilities are increasing, but the question is how much more powerful has the PLA become through AI technology compared to the United States?”
Faireyan also mentioned that China’s civil-military integration policy is actually an imitation of the U.S. development model. However, China is growing rapidly through the powerful capital of state-run enterprises, especially in the field of AI technology applications. In addition, China sees AI technology as one of the ‘asymmetric’ capabilities that the PLA can use to counter the superiority of the U.S. military.
The NSCAI report then recommends that U.S. universities and research institutions must take steps to prevent sensitive technologies from being stolen by the Chinese military. In addition, the U.S. must bet more on human and financial resources to maintain its current leadership in AI technology.
Report recommends increased U.S. investment to maintain AI leadership
The NSCAI report also said that China is attempting to become the global AI leader within 10 years, and that the U.S. should be cautioned and recruit and train technology talent in a way that is no less important than training military officers.
Gilman Louie, one of the NSCAI commissioners, said, “The Chinese view is that China not only wants to be a participant in setting the framework for the next industrial revolution, they want to be a leader because as China becomes increasingly involved globally, they see us as a competitor and they not only aspire to match us, but also aspire to dominate the leadership position.”
On the other hand, the U.S. is wary of China’s ambitions, including restrictions on personnel with Chinese PLA backgrounds in U.S. research, and restrictions on sensitive technologies in the semiconductor industry.
But to maintain its leadership position, he agreed that the U.S. needs to invest more resources on a national scale, including in human and financial resources.
NSCAI calls for the U.S. to invest $40 billion to win strategic competition with China on AI.
The NSCAI is an independent body established by Congress in 2018 and chaired by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt. Members include technology experts, national security professionals, business executives and academic leaders.
Schmidt said at a press conference Monday that “to win the competition, the U.S. government must act to promote innovation to improve national competitiveness; and to maintain America’s critical advantage in dealing with greater strategic competition from China. This could not be clearer.”
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