Observers say China is apparently building a surface-to-air missile base 20 kilometers from the Sino-Vietnamese border as a long-term precaution and short-term warning to neighboring countries, a move that has alerted the Vietnamese government.
Vietnamese news website VnExpress International quoted a Vietnamese Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying Feb. 4 that the Vietnamese government would “verify” whether China had built a missile base in the Guangxi region near the Sino-Vietnamese border.
Satellite photos released by the NGO South China Sea News show the base and another one 70 kilometers from the Sino-Vietnamese border. One of the photos shows a military runway with surface-to-air missiles, radar and six launchers.
Preparing for conflict
Analysts say China is aiming to bolster its defenses in areas bordering countries such as Vietnam that have been in conflict with China in recent years. China and Vietnam fought a land war in the 1970s. The two countries have also clashed in disputed South China waters, including the 1974 Xisha naval battle and a ship collision seven years ago.
“It’s a signal that China is preparing for a border war.” Alexander Vuving, a professor at the Hawaii-based Daniel K. Inouye Center for Asia-Pacific Security Studies, said, “Maybe not today, not tomorrow, but for the long term.”
China’s increased military presence last year was followed by a border conflict with India. Also last year, China’s rival superpower, the United States, angered the country when its naval ships sailed into waters near China 10 times. Wuong said the potential “competition” with the United States would involve other Asian countries.
Last October, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged the military to prepare for war.
Wuong said there is a greater chance of “potential conflict” along the Sino-Vietnamese border because of its proximity to the disputed South China Sea coast.
Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam are all claimants to the South China Sea. The Chinese government claims 90 percent of the 3.5 million square kilometers of water under its jurisdiction and cites historical use records to support its position. The South China Sea is favored for its fisheries, submarine fuel reserves and sea lanes.
Over the past decade, China has consolidated its maritime assertion of sovereignty by reclaiming land and building small islands for military use.
Warning to Southeast Asia
Nanyang Technological University (Singapore) maritime security researcher Collin Koh said PetroVietnam is proposing a new gas exploration project in the South China Sea, so the nearby missile base could be “a warning from China”.
Hong Kong‘s South China Morning Post reported in January that Vietnamese officials plan to explore the disputed waters with The Japanese company despite the failure of a project between PetroVietnam and Russian oil giant Rosneft in July after a standoff between its rig and Chinese maritime police vessels.
By deploying the missiles, Gorellian said, “they want to pre-empt and, if necessary, prevent other claimants to the South China Sea from carrying out offshore exploration projects within the territory claimed by China.”
China has the most powerful military force in Asia. In the past decade, China has placed particular emphasis on naval development.
Unlike other claimants to the South China Sea, Vietnam is openly opposed to China and has received less Chinese investment than its neighbors. Ngoc Vong said the missile base would increase Vietnam’s suspicion of China and prompt Vietnamese leaders to strengthen military defenses.
He also said Vietnamese leaders may quietly raise the issue of the missile bases with China in an effort to stabilize broader relations. The two countries often settle disputes between political parties.
Alan Chong, an associate professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said Vietnam will not set aside military issues in favor of investment ties with China. Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines have avoided pressuring China over sovereignty claims because all three countries receive investment funds from China.
He said:-“Vietnam is the only country that is holding out, and national security issues seem to be their main concern.”
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