The USS Wilbur guided missile destroyer passed through the Taiwan Strait on the 24th. The picture shows the USS Wilbur firing live ammunition.
Taiwan’s blue camp think tanks on Thursday discussed the “Chinese Communist Party‘s military threat to Taiwan,” saying that the Chinese Communist Party has already begun to implement its war plan against Taiwan, and that it has reached the highest level of conflict in the gray zone, possibly as a pre-conflict preparatory action. They believe it is difficult to guarantee that the U.S. will protect Taiwan when some U.S. scholars say the CCP could occupy Taiwan within one or two years. However, some Taiwanese scholars analyze that even if the aircraft carrier is far away from Taiwan, it still has the meaning of intimidation effect.
The National Policy Research Foundation (NPRF), a blue-leaning think tank in Taiwan, held a symposium on Thursday (25) to discuss the “Chinese Communist Party’s military threat to Taiwan. Former Defense Minister Yang Nianzu, former legislator Shuai Hwa-Min, military expert Qi Leyi, associate researcher Shu Hsiao-Huang of the Institute of Political and Operational Concepts of the National Defense Security Research Institute, and Lin Yu-Fang, convener of the National Security Group of the Foundation, attended.
There is no guarantee that the United States will protect Taiwan in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait
The former American scholar Oriana Skylar Mastro said that the Chinese Communist Party may invade and occupy Taiwan within one or two years, and that international attention is being paid to whether the U.S. military will assist in Taiwan’s defense. Former legislator Shuai Huamin said that the U.S. military’s involvement is very low and that this is a very dangerous Time in the Taiwan Strait. He said now the biggest advantage of the Chinese Communist Party at sea is the East Wind anti-ship ballistic missiles, when the U.S. has the ability to counteract and protect the safety of aircraft carriers, the U.S. Navy and Air Force can only intervene.
The National Political Foundation’s National Security Group convener Lin Yu-fang believes that the question of whether the United States will intervene is itself a psychological warfare, now because the Chinese Communist Party is not sure that the United States will not really intervene, Taiwan can be safe and sound.
Ding Shufan: There are many ways for the United States to intervene
The company’s main goal is to provide a solution to the problem of the problem. He continued to say that even if the aircraft carrier is far away from Taiwan, it still has the meaning of intimidation.
Ding Shufan said: the United States in the end will send aircraft carriers, and carriers will Taiwan how far, I think this issue, the future of the approach to combat will not be the same as the Taiwan Strait conflict in 1995, 96, because the weapons in progress, the fight will be different. So maybe in 1995 and 96 the United States may send aircraft carriers to the vicinity of Taiwan, but maybe in the next few years, the carriers may be farther away from Taiwan to have a deterrent effect, so we can not use past experience to look at the end of many things.
As to whether the Chinese Communist Party can really occupy Taiwan within two years, Ding Shufan believes that next year is the 20th Communist Party Congress, and whether Xi Jinping will continue to stay in office will form variables, so it is difficult to say in the short term. If Xi Jinping really wants to unify Taiwan in the future, he may use various means, such as cyber attacks, so Taiwan has to be prepared for many things, not just military aspects.
Lin Yu-fang: The Chinese Communist Party has begun to implement its war plan against Taiwan
In addition, during the seminar, Lin Yu-fang also mentioned that there is a real danger of war breaking out in the Taiwan Strait, and that in the mind of the Chinese Communist Party, after Macau and Hong Kong, Taiwan is a “territory” that must be recovered.
He mentioned that the number of Chinese military aircraft of all types present in the airspace southwest of Taiwan in 2020 has reached 380, but from Jan. 1 to Feb. 23, 2021, it has reached 121.
The Chinese Communist Party has reached the highest level of conflict in the gray zone Yang Nianzu: consume Taiwan’s ability
Shu Xiaohuang, associate researcher at the Institute for Defense and Security Studies, mentioned that the current actions of the Chinese Communist Party have reached the highest level of conflict in the gray zone, namely military and threatening actions. He believes that this zone will not necessarily result in war, but may also be the preparatory actions before the conflict.
In terms of the “gray zone,” former Defense Minister Yang Nianzu believes that the CCP is conducting a political, military, and psychological war of attrition against Taiwan, and that this approach is depleting Taiwan’s capabilities and breaking down the morale of the people.
Yang Nianzu said: This war of attrition is invisible to us, and this aspect is very effective. So this gray area on our war of attrition, in fact, is to our national security made with a large pressure and challenge.
He continued, hoping that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait restraint, do not want to cause military conflict because of the misunderstanding between the two sides.
The Ministry of National Defense has announced that it has sent 4,132 air combat patrols, and the Air Force has spent 4.1 billion NT dollars ($147 million) on airlifting costs, causing mental and physical loads on Taiwan’s pilots and ground crews.
Lin Yu-fang responds to Qiu Taizan: a swallow brings less than summer
He said that if Tsai Ing-wen’s government recognizes the 1992 Consensus, the DPP will lose an important issue that can be manipulated in every election.
The company’s main goal is to provide a platform for the public to learn more about the company’s business. After Chairman Qiu Taisan finished his expectations for cross-strait relations, the spokesman of the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office also spoke. I felt that they were having a dialogue in the air, but it was also like barging fire in the air. Both of them are circling around the 1992 Consensus, and they are tit-for-tat with no sign of compromise. So my feeling is that the day when the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are going to blossom in spring is a long way off. Because the possibility of reconciliation is very low, instead we have to worry that the possibility of armed conflict and war will become very high.
The U.S. 7th Fleet Command announced that the Burke-class SHIELD destroyer USS Macon (DDG-56) passed through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday (24) local time for the second time since U.S. President Joe Biden came to Taiwan. The command said the action demonstrates the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
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