USS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Nimitz aircraft carriers conduct a dual carrier joint exercise in the South China Sea Feb. 9, 2021 (U.S. Navy photo)
The Biden administration, which has been in office for a month, is assessing global military deployments and establishing a China task force to review the U.S. strategic and military posture in the Indo-Pacific region in response to the growing challenge posed by the Chinese Communist Party. Analysts believe that the Biden Administration is expected to continue to prioritize the Indo-Pacific region, focusing more on building allies and partners while continuing the Trump-era military posture.
Like the Trump Administration, the Biden administration views the Chinese Communist Party as the most serious long-term security challenge to the United States. In an interview with CNN, Secretary of State Blinken said Trump is right to take a tough stance against the CCP, though the approach is wrong, “but the underlying principles are right.”
In the area of military security, President Biden made two major foreign policy announcements, an assessment of the global military posture and the creation of a China task force at the Department of Defense. The former will ensure that U.S. military deployments are aligned with U.S. foreign policy and national interests, while the latter will take a comprehensive look at “strategy, operational concepts, science and technology, and military posture” in order to chart a robust roadmap for addressing the Chinese Communist challenge.
Continuing the Indo-Pacific Military Posture
The two assessments are expected to be completed around midyear. New administrations typically make adjustments to their military deployments in response to geopolitical changes, but analysts believe the new assessments are unlikely to signal a weakening of the U.S. military posture in the Indo-Pacific region.
Biden is likely to continue to make the Indo-Pacific region a focus for the U.S. military,” said Timothy Heath, an expert on international defense issues at the RAND Corporation. …… I expect the U.S. will continue to maintain freedom of navigation activities and its commitment to allies and partners. The focus on building a more resilient and viable U.S. military presence in Asia is likely to continue.”
Earlier this month, the U.S. carrier battle group USS Roosevelt and USS Nimitz held joint exercises in the South China Sea, where a dual carrier battle group was last seen six months ago during former President Trump’s presidency. Meanwhile, the USS John S. McCain, a guided-missile destroyer based in Japan, crossed the Taiwan Strait and the USS Rafael Peralta, the newest guided-missile destroyer, was deployed from its base in San Diego to the U.S. military base in Yokosuka, Japan.
I don’t see a change in the continued military presence in the South China Sea and that region,” Seth Cropsey, director of the Hudson Center’s Center for U.S. Maritime Power, told Voice of America. The question is whether the Biden administration will be tougher than the Trump administration, not only on the naval and military side, but also on the diplomatic and economic side.”
Experts generally agree that there is more continuity than difference between the Biden administration and the Trump administration at the level of the Indo-Pacific strategy or Asia policy, with the main difference being that the Biden administration will strengthen alliances and partnerships more.
Last week, Secretary of State Blinken held a video conference with the foreign ministers of Japan, India and Australia, showing that the new Biden administration is still following the previous administration’s four-party talks mechanism to address various major challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.
United Allies
John Schaus, a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, told VOA, “I think in general the goal of ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific will continue, although there may be changes in the formulation. The difference is that the Biden administration will focus more on building a multilateral, ally- and partner-based strategy, so it’s more ‘we’re all in this together’ than ‘America first.'”
Working with allies has also been a keynote in the Biden administration’s foreign policy. During a visit to the Pentagon, Biden said it will take an administration-wide effort, bipartisan cooperation in Congress and strong alliances and partnerships to ensure that the United States wins against the Communist Party in the future. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the United States will try to build a “chorus of voices” to deal with the Chinese Communist Party. Defense Secretary Austin also said the U.S. will consult with allies and partners in assessing the global military posture.
Biden reiterated the U.S.-Japan alliance and the U.S. defense commitment to Japan during a call with Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. The U.S. and South Korea are also reportedly close to an agreement on military cost-sharing that would help boost the U.S.-South Korea alliance. The military cost-sharing agreement between the two countries expires at the end of 2019, but the two sides have been unable to reach an agreement due to the Trump administration’s demand for South Korea to share more costs.
I think it’s possible to see an increased U.S. military presence on a rotational basis in places like Australia and Singapore,” he said. I expect we’ll see new ways of engaging allies and partners in that region, perhaps seeing more frequent but potentially smaller exercises with the Philippines and India, and possibly with Malaysia and Indonesia as well.”
The RAND Corporation’s Ho Tien Mu believes that U.S. Asian allies are broadly welcoming the signals of increased cooperation from the Biden administration, but the extent to which they will significantly change their policies is uncertain.
Weaker ones like the Philippines and Thailand appear to be adjusting to the reality of the rise of the Communist Party,” he said. But powerful countries like Japan may welcome closer cooperation to deter potential CCP aggression. South Korea’s approach is mixed, as it appears to value the U.S. Security alliance but also recognizes the importance of relations with China. Seoul may choose to moderately increase its cooperation with the United States but also seek a balance between the United States and China. I expect many Asian countries to adopt this strategy as well.”
Military Deployment
In addition to Communist China and the Indo-Pacific, the Biden administration is also focusing on its commitment to NATO and traditional European allies to counter the Russian threat. The Associated Press reports that the Biden administration may face a dilemma in reconsidering global military deployments, namely how to focus more on China and Russia without pulling back from long-standing Middle East threats and making adjustments in the face of a possible reduction in military budgets.
The Associated Press report suggests that the Biden administration may support deploying smaller military forces to non-traditional destinations on shorter rotational cycles. The report noted that Defense Secretary Austin also said during his Senate confirmation hearings that the U.S. military undoubtedly “needs a more adaptive and dispersed force posture in the Indo-Pacific region to counter the counter-intervention capabilities of the Chinese Communist Party.”
Austin was referring to allowing the U.S. military to develop capabilities that would allow it to operate from an increasing number of bases and locations with changing and unpredictable force sizes, He Tianmu said. The goal is to create a greater challenge to the Chinese Communist Party’s military defense planning and to ensure the U.S. military’s flexibility when operating.
Kurt Campbell, the White House National Security Council’s Indo-Pacific coordinator, and Rush Doshi, director of China affairs, wrote jointly on the Foreign Affairs website in January that the United States could maintain forward deployments while redeploying military forces in Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean region. This, they argued, would reduce U.S. dependence on a few East Asian bases.
They also argue that Washington should prioritize deterring Beijing through the deployment of lower-cost asymmetric capabilities and helping Indo-Pacific countries develop their own asymmetric capabilities, as well as encouraging military and intelligence cooperation among regional states to form a hub-and-spoke system of regional allies with the United States.
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